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There can be only one…word to describe the state of every NBA team coming out of the 2022 All-Star break.
That is the rule imposed upon yours truly, and I’m sticking to it religiously, without exception. No single-word modifiers. No phrasal adjectives.
Just one single, solitary, encapsulating word for each squad. And yes, made-up jargon totally counts.
This entire exercise will be tackled from 10,000-foot views. It doesn’t matter whether people on, employed by or intimately associated with teams would roll with different selections. This is about identifying prevailing themes and defining issues through our outside perception.
To the Onewordmobile!
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On paper, even amid various absences, the Atlanta Hawks should be better than the Eastern Conference’s No. 10 seed. They shouldn’t have a semi-realistic chance of getting bounced from play-in territory.
In practice, though, they are a relentless avalanche of inconsistency. They ripped off a seven-game winning streak after beginning the year 17-25 only to follow that by losing five of seven. They then notched two consecutive John Collins-less victories heading into the All-Star break.
Defense is clearly their Achilles’ heel. Save for a brief uptick that pretty much coincided with De’Andre Hunter’s return, the Hawks have put up the resistance of a turnstile, particularly on live-ball plays. Atlanta is 27th in points allowed per possession following a missed shot and 29th in points allowed per possession after committing a turnover, according to Inpredictable.
Just what are the Hawks? Your guess is as good as mine, if not better.
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So much for the Boston Celtics jockeying with the Hawks and Los Angeles Lakers for the NBA’s “Biggest Underachiever” dishonor. They’ve instead decided that they’d rather operate as maybe-possibly-potentially title contenders.
Jayson Tatum has turned the playmaking corner, and as Brian Scalabrine and Zach Lowe discussed on a recent episode of The Lowe Post podcast, the Celtics have made defensive adjustments, punctuated by their usage of Robert Williams III, that opposing offenses can’t yet solve. But their overall ascension isn’t just some quaint midseason development. It exists on a more macro level.
Boston is the only team in the East with a winning record against opponents .500 or better. It also leads the entire NBA in net rating against squads with top-10 point differentials.
Don’t call it a turnaround. This is more like a delayed arrival.
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Anyone pretending to understand what the Brooklyn Nets are capable of doing at full strength or close to it is lying. Theirs is a situation inundated with question marks and unquantifiables.
What will Ben Simmons look like upon his return? Is his fit within the Nets offense really that clean? Can Kevin Durant (sprained left MCL) hold up for the rest of the year? Will New York City phase out COVID-19 vaccine mandates so Kyrie Irving can be converted into a full-time player?
And what happens if the NBA remains his part-time gig into the playoffs? Does Brooklyn have enough juice to cause more than an early-round ruckus? Will Goran Dragic be an actual difference-maker? Does this team have enough wings? Can its frontline rotation yield consistent enough results to hold up in the postseason? Will Joe Harris play again this year?
The Nets might still be a superteam. Or maybe they’re something in-between. We can’t be sure. Not yet.
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Acquiring Montrezl Harrell at the trade deadline was a perfect encapsulation of the Charlotte Hornets’ situation: They are good, not great, and they shouldn’t be in any rush to try climbing the ladder. They are decidedly on-schedule.
This sometimes gets lost in the larger Hornets discourse. No, their center rotation isn’t built for the long haul. It doesn’t need to be. This is LaMelo Ball’s sophomore season. Charlotte has yet to reinvest in Miles Bridges, a restricted free agent this summer. It didn’t need to mortgage the future to improve a defense that has overachieved by escaping the bottom 10 in points allowed per possession.
Calls for head coach James Borrego to increase the workload for rookies James Bouknight and Kai Jones are similarly misguided. The Hornets aren’t operating on the most immediate timeline, but they also aren’t the Detroit Pistons or the Houston Rockets. They’re in the thick of East’s play-in race, and there is value in bringing kiddies along slowly when they aren’t solutions to any of your roster’s most glaring issues.
Enjoy the Hornets for what they are now: entertaining as hell, with a tentpole star, on an upward trajectory. Climatic pressure comes later—perhaps this offseason. And for any “Dust off Bouknight” agitators, there’s a chance he’ll get more run now that Ish Smith is out of the picture.
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“Fragile” was in consideration for these Chicago Bulls. Patrick Williams has missed most of the season with a left wrist injury, Lonzo Ball (left knee) and Alex Caruso (right wrist) are recovering from surgeries, and Zach LaVine is dealing with a sore left knee that recently required a cortisone shot.
Limited availability from key rotation players is a red flag. The Bulls’ defense has fallen off an early-season scorcher without Lonzo and Caruso. And yet, Chicago remains neck and neck with the Miami Heat for the East’s No. 1 seed.
Can we appreciate this a little bit more? And maybe even see it reflected in 2022 championship odds?
The Bulls currently own the ninth-best title chances over at FanDuel Sportsbook. That is far too low for a team that will only get healthier, and that may have a unique knack for guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Even if you aren’t fully sold on how the Bulls’ success will translate to the postseason, let’s at least acknowledge that they’ve done enough to curry more championship favor than the Utah Jazz.
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Raise your hand if you saw the Cleveland Cavaliers turning in a top-five defense and tracking toward their first playoff berth without LeBron James since 1998.
If your hand is in the air, congratulations on being much smarter than me. Granted, the Cavs are a revelation even for the most longstanding optimists.
Evan Mobley is on a transcendent trajectory. Darius Garland just made the first of what should be multiple All-Star appearances. Jarrett Allen might be right there with him, and even if he isn’t, this season’s success is not a flash in the pan. He has always tilted toward suffocatingly versatile on defense, and his improved ball skills on offense are more of a gradual development than abrupt aberration.
Collective one-year mega-leaps can often be anomalous. Cleveland’s neither looks nor feels temporary, though. None of its core players have entered their primes, and its range of immediate and longer-term outcomes is elevated by the addition of Caris LeVert, the eventual return of Collin Sexton (restricted free agent this summer) and any moves swung over the offseason.
This is all to say: The Cavs are close to something more than what they are now, even though what they are now is pretty flipping good.
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Jettisoning Kristaps Porizingis at the trade deadline implied a number of things about the Dallas Mavericks. Chief among them: They viewed the Latvian skyscraper as a sunk cost and believe they’re better off with two smaller, albeit not insubstantial contracts owed to players who should provide more off-the-dribble pressure (Spencer Dinwiddie) and functional shooting (Davis Bertans).
This is a perfectly reasonable (even if uninspiring) stance to take. Pearl-clutching roster misfires can be more damaging than selling low.
And the Mavs, for their part, are on a relative tear. They have the league’s second-best defense and third-place net rating since beginning the season 16-18. Luka Doncic is tiptoeing around the MVP conversation, and bagging a top-four Western Conference seed is not out of the question.
Still, Dallas’ trade-deadline activity speaks to its overarching incompleteness and dearth of certainty. It has Luka, a gigantic chasm, and then everyone else.
Will the Mavs re-sign Jalen Brunson? Can they re-package Bertans or Dinwiddie into a more impactful trade over the summer? How will Tim Hardaway Jr.’s contract age following a down season and fractured left foot?
For all the Mavs are doing right, their fate remains inextricably tied to Luka’s capacity for ferrying a roster barren of co-stars and teeming with potential stopgaps.
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Coming out the All-Star break with the West’s sixth-best record is not indicative of total dominance. But when you’re eight games over .500 and boast a top-10 offense, a league-averageish defense and one of the five best players alive, you’re also more than a steppingstone.
Especially when everything you’ve done to date has been accomplished without two of your three most important building blocks.
Perhaps neither Jamal Murray (torn left ACL) nor Michael Porter Jr. (back surgery) rejoins the Denver Nuggets rotation this season. But what if one (or both) of them does?
Both are expected to be medically cleared for action before the end of the season, according to Mike Singer of the Denver Post. Getting back either one cannot be taken lightly, even if they’re only performing at 70 to 80 percent capacity.
For all their depth issues, the Nuggets are crushing opponents when Nikola Jokic plays and have cobbled together one of the league’s most effective starting fives. They’re more than an afterthought as presently constituted.
Adding Murray and/or MPJ to the fold could vault them back into the contenders clique.
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Every team entering a rebuild strives to land a consensus cornerstone—that superstar in the making who infuses them with purpose and direction.
The Detroit Pistons have found theirs in Cade Cunningham. He is, in fact, #thatdude.
Missing the start of the season, along with chunks of games since, has tempered the attention Cunningham receives in comparison to Rookie of the Year linchpins Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes. But the time to hold availability against him is gone.
Cunningham has the look and feel of a comprehensive, pro-teal star. His offensive performances are increasingly under control and instructive. He can captain Detroit’s entire operation or cede control to other ball-handlers and has levels to his defense.
Say what you must about Saddiq Bey’s topsy-turviness, Isaiah Stewart’s unformed offense, Killian Hayes’ everything (I still believe) and the value of a Marvin Bagley III flier. Detroit’s rebuild is neither finished nor perfect. But it has already answered its biggest, most important question.
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Do the Golden State Warriors have enough supplementary ball-handling? Will Stephen Curry’s rut ever subside? (It already did.) Can they count on Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole in the playoffs?
Should they have traded for a big? Should they have created a roster spot with the intent to scoop up another center on the buyout market? Can James Wiseman help them if he actually debuts in March?
Did the Warriors make a mistake by not pursuing a star-sized splash, at any position, and holding onto all of their youngsters? Is their defensive slippage owed solely to Draymond Green’s absence or emblematic of something more sinister?
Please forgive me as I struggle to muster the ability to profoundly doubt the Warriors.
Maybe the decision not to add another big or chase blockbuster acquisitions at the expense of their future will come back to bite them. Neither is a topic worth litigating now, though.
The Warriors are championship contenders, perhaps even fringe favorites, if both Steph and Draymond are healthy. There’s no need to overthink their ancillary flaws and potential pitfalls when that’s their actuality.
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Big-picture philosophy needs to define the rest of the Houston Rockets’ season. They are currently a hodgepodge of prospects and awkward-yet-not-irrationally placed vets who have shown signs of structural progress at both ends, but mostly in drips and drabs, and not in a way that winnows down the onslaught of questions to which there’s no answer.
Is Jalen Green franchise-cornerstone material? His performance in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break was encouraging (and overlooked), but can he be both a scoring and playmaking focal point?
If he needs a bridge to running the offense, do the Rockets have one? Is Kevin Porter Jr. that guy? (Spoiler: He isn’t.) Does Dennis Schroder, a soon-to-be-free-agent on whom Houston won’t have Bird rights, serve that larger purpose and warrant a look beyond this season?
How involved can and should Alperen Sengun be within the offensive program? How fast do the Rockets intend to play? What exactly is Josh Christopher? Should Christian Wood, who’s extension-eligible this summer, be around for the long haul? What about Jae’Sean Tate? And Eric Gordon?
This list of inquiries goes on and on and on. The Rockets need to extract as much information out of their mishmash of talent as possible en route to chiseling out a discernible identity.
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Shipping out Domantas Sabonis, Justin Holiday and Jeremy Lamb for Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and Tristan Thompson (briefly) while divesting Caris LeVert might not mark the end of the Indiana Pacers’ on-court transition. They could lean further into an overhaul this summer.
A healthy Myles Turner and Malcolm Brogdon will carry plenty of trade value over the offseason, and a 21-year-old Haliburton plus Chris Duarte, a lottery selection and additional assets amount to a tantalizing nucleus around which to rebuild.
Then again, the Pacers could double down. Perhaps they keep Brogdon. And extend Turner. And bring back T.J. Warren, assuming he gets healthy.
The Pacers have long valued insta-renovations under team president Kevin Pritchard and franchise governor Herb Simon. They might be content to scoop up a top-seven prospect in this year’s draft and seek immediate re-entry into the East’s playoff discourse.
Really, they can explore any number of avenues. That’s the beauty of their situation: Their present is no longer stale, and it begets an open-ended future.
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Kawhi Leonard has yet to play this season while recovering from a partially torn right ACL. Paul George has been sidelined since before Christmas with a right elbow injury. Newly acquired Norman Powell is out indefinitely with a fractured left foot.
Marcus Morris Sr. missed a bunch of time to start the year. So did Serge Ibaka, who is now a member of the Milwaukee Bucks. Amir Coffey is seventh on the Los Angeles Clippers in total minutes, ahead of George and Nicolas Batum. Rookie Brandon Boston Jr. and Isaiah Hartenstein have become pivotal to the rotation.
Most teams would’ve called it a season by now, but the Clippers haven’t. They kind of had no choice, as they owe their unprotected 2022 first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder. But while their 26th-ranked offense is par for the course when Reggie Jackson and Terance Mann are two of your top-three shot-takers, they have far from declared this a lost year.
L.A. is seventh in points allowed per possession and is enjoying only a little bit of luck on opponent shooting. Tyronn Lue has coached the hell out of this squad, delivering a master class in rotation management and mid-game adjustments. The Clippers are virtual locks to snare a Western Conference play-in spot as result, and they’ll become much more terrifying if PG and/or Kawhi return.
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It’s almost impressive how much the Los Angeles Lakers have screwed themselves. They’ve done such a thorough job turning this season into a dumpster fire that it makes you wonder whether they’re actively trying to suck.
They aren’t, of course. They are inadvertently craptastic. I’m not sure if that’s better or worse. Their situation is made much more harrowing—and a tad hysterical—by how many people predicted their implosion.
Everyone is aware of the original sins (plural): They traded their two leaders in three-point makes, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma, plus Montrezl Harrell and a first-round pick for Russell Westbrook, who was a questionable fit at best. Then they let Alex Caruso walk because a $4.6 billion franchise valuation doesn’t warrant a steeper luxury-tax bill. (Let’s not forget that they turned Danny Green and a first-round pick over the 2020 offseason into Dennis Schroder, who they also didn’t re-sign last summer.)
Those obvious missteps have been exacerbated by spotty availability from Anthony Davis and an inert trade deadline that general manager Rob Pelinka claimed AD and LeBron James were on board with, even though they apparently weren’t.
We have now reached the anonymously sourced, passive-aggressive stage of the Lakers’ Blame Game. And rather than wondering if they can rally around another ridiculous season from age-37 LeBron, we’re left pondering whether they can make it out of the play-in tournament, turn their 2027 and 2029 firsts into a high-end acquisition over the offseason and prevent LBJ from plotting his escape before Bronny James is even draft-eligible.
So, yeah, the Lakers are screwed.
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Ja Morant captured the state of the Memphis Grizzlies’ when he told ESPN’s Tim MacMahon that they’ve built a “drippy” culture. I cannot come up with a more accurate word, but I refuse to be that much of a copycat, and I also have never once used “drippy” on my own, so I shouldn’t suddenly be allowed to co-opt it here.
“Gravy” is a solid alternative anyway. The Grizzlies have been working with found money for most of the year. Everything they do from here merely builds off their outsized amount of growth.
Would it be nice if they won a playoff series? Or two? Sure. And they are capable of doing so. They have the league’s top defense and net rating, along with a fourth-ranked offense, since just after Thanksgiving.
Quibble about the extents and merits of functional leaps from Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane and Memphis’ overall depth if you’re a skeptic. But this “stretch” has spanned too long to be just that.
This is closer to the Grizzlies’ normal than not, and they needn’t do anything else to prove they’ve both arrived and are on the cusp of morphing into a sustainable Western Conference wrecking ball.
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Drama throughout the rest of the Eastern Conference has essentially allowed the Miami Heat to fly under the radar. That’s…weird.
It’d be one thing if they were hovering around the fringes of home-court advantage. But they’re on the verge of finishing with the East’s best record, even though all three of their best players have missed at least 13 games apiece.
Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry have logged only 415 minutes together all season. That doesn’t even render them one of the NBA’s 550 most played trios.
Miami’s half-court offense can admittedly bog down. It’s uncomfortably dependent on two stars who don’t chuck threes and a tough-shot diet from Tyler Herro. But that hardly invalidates the Heat’s powerhouse case. They have a top-five defense, a supporting cast that’s deeper than initially advertised and, most impressively, a legit crack at the No. 1 seed despite limited full-strength samples.
A team that’s already a monstrous problem will become an even bigger one if they can get and stay healthy.
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Top-heaviness is not a harbinger of doom for the Milwaukee Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo has further refined his offensive armory, and the team smashes its competition by 13.8 points per 100 possessions when he plays with Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, the latter of whom is due for an upswing in efficiency.
With scant few assurances in Brooklyn or from the new-look Philadelphia 76ers and an element of “prove it in the postseason” attached to Chicago and Miami, the reigning champs are the safest pick to come out of the East. So let’s not overreact.
But let’s also not pretend that the Bucks are somehow deep enough—or deep at all.
Brook Lopez has missed all but one game with a back injury and remains without a timeline for return. Pat Connaughton, Milwaukee’s best supplementary wing, recently underwent right hand surgery and has a timeline of “hopefully before the end of the regular season” for his return. George Hill has not played in roughly a month because of a neck injury. Grayson Allen is dealing with a hip issue.
Seriously worrying about the Bucks feels performative when Giannis is still upright. But there’s also something wildly uncomfortable about how much the arrivals of Serge Ibaka, Jevon Carter and DeAndre’ Bembry seemingly need to matter.
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Offering the equivalent of a one-word “good job, good effort” to a team that has two players on max contracts and has made the playoffs only once since 2005 rings all sorts of hollow.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are not some happy-to-be-here upstart who should view every victory as a fringe benefit of the bigger picture. Urgency is inherent of their situation, with D’Angelo Russell one year out from free agency (2023) and Karl-Anthony Towns right behind him (2024).
But the middle of the Western Conference is not exactly up for grabs. The top six teams are exactly who you’d expect them to be, and they have a chokehold on their territory. Minnesota deserves credit for playing with a distinct offensive style, turning in above-average ratings at both ends of the floor and attempting to course-correct when something doesn’t work.
Look no further than the team’s response to a slumping defense. As Timberwolves reporter Dane Moore noted, head coach Chris Finch has them implementing a variety of different coverages beyond default hyper-aggression to try recapturing their early-season defensive swagger (and overshadow a shoddy yearlong performance on the glass).
Minnesota has also done nice job finagling its books so it isn’t tethered to any one iteration. The one-year, $13 million extension for Patrick Beverley the latest example. He will now come off the books in 2023, along with Russell and Malik Beasley (team option), leaving the Wolves with scores of flexibility.
Minnesota’s job is not close to done, but it sure seems to be headed in the right direction.
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We should be talking about the quietly solid play from the New Orleans Pelicans for much of this season. About how good CJ McCollum has looked through most of his first five appearances with the team. About how Herb Jones, as a rookie, is going to garner All-Defense consideration. About how, collectively, no team has done a better job since Jan. 1 limiting opponent transition opportunities.
We should definitely be talking about Brandon Ingram’s evolution as a playmaker. About how he is one of only four players who rate above the 90th percentile in BBall Index’s passing creation quality and passing efficiency through at least 1,500 minutes, along with Nikola Jokic, Chris Paul and Jrue Holiday. About what that means for the Pelicans. And about what this team could look like when Zion Williamson finally returns from a right foot injury.
And look, we sort of just talked about all that. But every single high and low in New Orleans is complicated by the confusing, impossible-to-read future of Zion himself.
Former Pelicans teammate and current ESPN analyst J.J. Redick went in on Zion during a recent episode of First Take. It was the most damning information dump yet related to the long-complex dynamic between the team and its should-be generational cornerstone. It also begs a whole slew of questions in response.
Does Zion really want out? Does he have any leverage to extricate himself from New Orleans after missing so much time through his first three years? Will he sign a max extension this summer if the Pelicans offer it? Will they offer it? Should they? And who is responsible for the glaring lack of transparency behind his foot injury?
The Pelicans must figure out all things Zion before they map out their future, mostly because he is their future. He’s supposed to be, at least.
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Please do not waste your breath trying to explain the New York Knicks’ direction. They don’t have one.
Sidelining Kemba Walker for the rest of the season is not their way of clearing court time for Cam “Cost a First-Round Pick” Reddish. It’s more likely a sign of how close Derrick Rose is to returning from right ankle surgery and another opportunity for head coach Tom Thibodeau to declare his undying love for the failed Alec Burks-at-point-guard minutes.
Doling out blame for the entirety of the Knicks’ season is futile. Everyone missed. The front office doubled down on an anomalous year. Thibodeau has—surprise, surprise—proved unwilling to substantially alter his approach and ineffective rotations.
Julius Randle started playing better ahead of the All-Star break, but he is a gargantuan letdown compared to last season. Many fans and bloggers, including yours truly, shouldn’t have been so quick to write off the four-year extension that he signed this past summer as a net positive or inconsequential move. A handful of veteran additions, including Walker, didn’t pan out.
Misreads happen. The Knicks are not unique in their failure. Nor are they stuck beyond escape. But they do lack a concrete vision.
Do we really think Thibs will prioritize giving a longer rope to Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin and actually play Deuce McBride? Or that he’ll interpret Reddish’s shot diet as growing pains? Or that he won’t risk injury to RJ Barrett, the single most important player to the franchise, by having him on the floor during garbage time? Or that he won’t inexplicably reduce Quentin Grimes’ role?
Alignment between front office and head coach is not a strength of this franchise. And until that synergy is reestablished, the Knicks will remain at once bad and uninspiring, without a direction to show for it.
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Treating the Oklahoma City Thunder as the billboard for flagrant tanking has become commonplace—and, on many levels, completely incorrect.
There is indeed a certain overtness to their disinterest in what happens now. And their league-worst offense is just as cramped-looking as the roster and statistical barometers suggest. The Thunder are still in the market for top-end talent, infinitely so when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on the shelf. But they are not bereft of actual NBA players. Nor is their playing style without a rhyme or reason.
Oklahoma City is 12th in points allowed per possession and grades out as a top-10 team when guarding in both transition and the half-court. There may be some luck at play when looking at the defense against above-the-break threes, but the Thunder are the only team that ranks inside the top seven of the share of opponent shots that come at the rim and the field-goal percentage allowed on point-blank opportunities—and they play like it.
Darius Bazley, Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins have all held up against supremely tough assignments, and Oklahoma City is chock full of 6’6″ to 6’9″ types who can be moved around the positional spectrum. (Basketball News’ Mark Schindler recently delved into more detail on the team’s defensive identity).
It’s still unclear whether SGA and Josh Giddey are starry enough to anchor the next relevant wave of Thunder basketball. Theirs is likely a future still tightly bound to players not yet in the league. But this is not a team that lacks staying power in its nucleus.
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A crowded backcourt rotation has not blessed the Orlando Magic with a clear-cut primary playmaker. They have saddled Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs and R.J. Hampton with the most point-of-attack responsibilities while sprinkling in some orchestration for Wendell Carter Jr. and Franz Wagner, but a sensible pecking order has yet to emerge.
Getting Markelle Fultz back from a torn left ACL, if he even plays this year, won’t solve the issue. His finite shot diet inherently caps his table-setting.
Suggs’ uneven rookie season—replete with encouraging highs, troubling lows and a right thumb injury that cost him a month-and-a-half—has hinted at nifty decision-making when he gets downhill. Anthony is a wild card off the dribble (in a good way). Hampton, who remains out with a sprained left MCL, can operate with changes in tempo that disarm set defenses.
Do any of these three have another primary-playmaking gear? Could any of them benefit from more time away from the ball? Is it time to take Wagner’s higher-than-expected pick-and-roll volume and kick it up yet another notch or five? Or should the Magic be resigned to having a crowded backcourt absent a floor-general type?
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Acquiring a 32-year-old James Harden who may be on the verge of becoming the NBA’s first $250-plus million player could turn out to have a stark long-term opportunity cost. Ben Simmons is roughly seven years younger than Harden and is on a cheaper contract for another three seasons, and giving up a loosely protected first-round pick a half-decade into the future is never without risk.
Big whoop. The Philadelphia 76ers can’t afford to care, because Joel Embiid’s prime doesn’t giving a flying-you-know-what about a 2027 or 2028 first-rounder. His championship window is now, so that’s the timeline to which the Sixers are most obligated.
Let’s not galaxy-brain this thing by getting caught up in the might-bes five-plus years down the line. The Sixers turned Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and a $33 million vacant spot in their rotation into a version of Harden who figures to give a damn again.
Weighing the potential ill effects he will have on their defense is fair, albeit overblown. As Jackson Frank explained for Liberty Ballers, Harden positions Philly to either optimize Matisse Thybulle’s limited range across larger samples or cannonball into an offense-first model, the likes of which the team has never known with Embiid.
And speaking of Embiid: He’s happy. He’s posting—and posing for photos with the subject of—memes. Right now, at this moment, the Sixers are worlds better off than they were mere weeks ago.
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Chris Paul’s right thumb injury is expected to sideline him between six and eight weeks, but it does little to change the trajectory of the Phoenix Suns.
Barring any setbacks, he should return in time for the playoffs, and the postseason is officially all that matters for the reigning Western Conference champs. They are that kind of dominant.
Phoenix has a seven-game lead in the loss column not just on the West’s No. 1 seed, but the NBA’s top record overall. Nobody has a higher winning percentage against squads with top-10 point differentials, and the Suns are the only team that currently sits in the top five of both offensive and defensive efficiency.
This roster has so few distinct weaknesses that it doesn’t seem real. The Suns could use a third ball-handler with the size to play beside both Paul and Devin Booker, but they’re deep enough that a healthy Cameron Payne gives them the required secondary juice, and they always have the option of expanding the on-ball agency of Mikal Bridges (currently on fire) and Cameron Johnson.
Make no mistake: Losing CP3 for any time at all is a huge blow. But as discussed on the Hardwood Knocks podcast (42:55 mark), it is also an opportunity to plumb the depths of this roster—to actually trot out Booker-at-point-guard lineups, diversify Deandre Ayton’s usage, playoff-proof Bridges’ attack mode, et al.
Who knows what the Suns come to learn during this stretch? But there is untold value in self-discovery for a team that already knows so darn much about itself.
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Whether you loved, hated or were indifferent to the Portland Trail Blazers’ midseason fire sale, there’s no denying that they’ve positioned themselves to enjoy nearly unparalleled flexibility over the summer. Fewer than five teams project to have more cap space, and their trade-deadline maneuvering coupled with injuries to Jusuf Nurkic (foot) and Damian Lillard (abdominal) will inevitably boost their draft-lottery odds.
But what this all amounts to is still very much up in the air.
Spare us the “Dame is gone” takes. His future in Portland should be a non-issue unless he stops declaring his allegiance to it.
That doesn’t exempt the Blazers from intense scrutiny, though. They may have finally, mercifully pounded the reset button, but to what end?
This year’s free-agency class isn’t especially deep, and Portland has never registered as a red-carpet destination. The Blazers have a giant trade exception worth around $20.9 million, but do they also possess enough assets to outbid other suitors for the next crop of big names that nudge or outright force their way onto different teams?
Oh, and then there’s the little matter of the exact plan in place. Are they angling for a more gradual rebuild around Lillard? Or is this supposed to be a gap-year situation? And who else currently on the roster, aside from Anfernee Simons, factors into their next phase? Trendon Watford? Greg Brown III? Josh Hart? CJ Elleby?
Portland’s direction isn’t just unsettled. It will lack a singular, recognizable form until, well, until it doesn’t.
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A few games into the Domantas Sabonis era, it’s easier to envision how he can elevate the Sacramento Kings without stepping on the toes of De’Aaron Fox. But as for where that elevation takes the Kings…I got nothing.
Sacramento may have juiced its immediate ceiling by acquiring Sabonis and Justin Holiday. That peak is still unlikely to include an appearance in the play-in tournament this year, let alone a postseason bid. And the Kings’ outlook beyond that isn’t exponentially rosier.
Will Harrison Barnes’ name disappear from the rumor mill given how critical his skill set is to optimizing floor balance? What’s the plan for Richaun Holmes, a starting-caliber center who’s been rendered redundant by Sabonis’ arrival? Can Sacramento get some actual wings on to their roster? What do the Kings’ best, most aggressive trade packages look like with Tyrese Haliburton gone? Does Davion Mitchell plus picks and salary filler get them into higher-profile talks over the summer?
People wanted the Kings to do something, anything, significant ahead of the trade deadline. To their credit, they did—and landed an awesome player. But they also shrunk their window in the process, an unavoidable byproduct of transitioning from a 21-year-old sophomore to a 25-year-old All-Star on his second contract.
Moves that drum up implicit urgency are usually accompanied by a blueprint to capitalizing on it. Sacramento’s vision remains absent that type of clarity for now.
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Ticketing the San Antonio Spurs for a full-tilt rebuild still doesn’t quite feel right. Dealing Derrick White and Thaddeus Young at the trade deadline definitely skews toward that direction, but they remain populated by a number of players more win-now than exploratory and could technically stumble into the play-in tournament.
At the same time, the Spurs aren’t shirking the opportunity to begin anew, either. This is the closest they’ve come to hitting restart since the start of the Tim Duncan era.
Splitting the difference allows us to settle on “building.” It acknowledges that Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl are really good, and that San Antonio continues to play Doug McDermott. But it also nods toward a relative youth and experimental movement the Spurs have dabbled in all season and are more committed to now.
White’s departure should culminate in noticeably more responsibility for Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson, more consistent minutes for the quietly intriguing Tre Jones and actual court time for rookie Josh Primo. Offloading both Young and Drew Eubanks, meanwhile, clears the way for more Zach Collins and Jock Landale. And there should also be room to see whether Keita Bates-Diop or restricted-free-agent-to-be Lonnie Walker IV have more permanent places on the roster.
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Depth is not a luxury the Toronto Raptors enjoy in ample supply. They don’t try to hide it, either.
OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet all rank in the top five leaguewide of minutes per game. Landing Thaddeus Young opens up the rotation but is not a panacea. Head coach Nick Nurse is still half-compelled, half-forced to field lineups that have little business existing, and the offense has limitations in matchups that don’t allow them to generate second-chance opportunities or get out in transition.
At full strength, though, the Raptors’ top-heaviness can work in their favor. Their seven best players—Anunoby, Siakam, VanVleet, Young, Scottie Barnes, Chris Boucher and Gary Trent Jr.—are all above replacement-level without appreciably compromising performance on either end of the floor.
Some of Toronto’s best lineups profile as juggernauts, too. The fivesome of Anunoby, Boucher, Siakam, Trent and VanVleet has notched a staggering plus-46.5 net rating in limited action.
Moral of the story: Between their quality of players at the top of the roster and defensive malleability, the Raptors have the means to grind their way up the Eastern Conference standings—they’re 2.5 games out of third place—and even win a playoff series. Or two.
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Two straight early playoff exits that included blowing series leads have put the Utah Jazz on the clock. They may have viable excuses for each collapse, but title windows are fleeting and fickle, and running back largely the same product in hopes of yielding different results can only fly for so long.
Utah’s urgency was not the least bit reflected in its trade-deadline activity. Instead of unloading distant first-round picks (2026 and beyond) to bolster and diversify its wing defense, it instead opted to parlay Joe Ingles’ expiring contract and seconds into luxury-tax savings and a look at Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Conservative action could intimate a profound confidence in this exact core. The Jazz have the league’s best offense, and their recent defensive slide was fueled in large part by Rudy Gobert’s absence with a left calf injury. Faith in the present product doesn’t mean continuity was the right choice, though.
Utah remains vulnerable to teams that can yank Gobert away from the basket—not because he’s the problem, per se, but because there isn’t enough athleticism around or in front of him to effectively counter smaller and quicker lineups that space the floor. And yeah, there are also games in which Gobert himself flops against certain units, like he did during a Feb. 16 loss to the lowly Los Angeles Lakers.
The Jazz cannot do anything about it now. They’ve hitched their wagon to the same team that came up short in unconvincing fashion for the past two years. And if this postseason holds more of the same, the smart money is on Utah forgoing the continuity it has staunchly preserved and exploring more wholesale trades this offseason.
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Bradley Beal is out for the season after undergoing left wrist surgery, and the newly acquired Kristaps Porzingis continues to recover from a right knee injury.
Ergo, go ahead and get weird, Washington Wizards.
Limping into the play-in tourney shouldn’t be the goal. Earning the right to play one or two more games or get picked apart in the first round won’t do anything to clarify the Wizards’ future. Put another way: It won’t have any bearing on what they do with Beal in free agency (player option), or what he does with them. If anything, a play-in berth only hamstrings their ability to improve before next season by way of less-appealing lottery odds.
Experimenting with quirkier, unexplored looks can ensure the Wizards don’t climb their way to the lower part of the middle. It also just so happens to be a necessity.
Shipping out Spencer Dinwiddie and Aaron Holiday on top of Beal’s injury has obliterated their playmaker pecking order. Reuniting with Ish Smith barely puts a dent in that deficit. So please, oh please, give Deni Avdija more on-ball responsibility. Do the same for Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, two valuable supporting cast members on short-term contracts whom Washington needs to evaluate against its longer haul.
And sure, if and when Porzingis gets healthy, see whether he has any efficient offensive hubbery to his game. Uncork more Anthony Gill, Corey Kispert and Isaiah Todd, too. Now is the time for extensive R and D.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Thursday’s games. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by NBA Math’s Adam Fromal.
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