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Mookie Betts didn’t look like himself as he played through a hip injury in 2021.Associated Press
Assuming Major League Baseball ends its lockout in time to actually have a season in 2022, more than a few stars will go in hoping to have a better year than they did in 2021.
Rather than talk about all of them, we’ve zeroed in on 10 who really stand out.
The list includes five pitchers and five hitters who, for various reasons, fell short of high expectations last season. Some had nagging injuries. Others were just plain in a funk. For some, it was a combination of both.
Please note that players whose ’21 seasons were wrecked by more serious injuries are not included in this discussion. While the likes of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Jacob deGrom are obviously looking for better fortunes in 2022, there isn’t much to say about them other than, “They just need to stay healthy.”
Going in alphabetical order, we’ll begin with the pitchers and conclude with the hitters.
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Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press
2020 Stats: 12 G, 12 GS, 76.0 IP, 59 H (5 HR), 93 K, 14 BB, 2.01 ERA, 224 ERA+, 2.8 rWAR
2021 Stats: 30 G, 30 GS, 166.1 IP, 138 H (28 HR), 199 K, 44 BB, 4.22 ERA, 92 ERA+, 1.4 rWAR
After finishing second in voting for the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, last year was a tale of two seasons for Yu Darvish.
He had a 2.44 ERA through his first 16 starts, followed by a 6.65 ERA in 14 outings after that. Though there were many other reasons, the right-hander’s struggles certainly contributed to the San Diego Padres’ downfall.
Yet there was at least a clear explanation for said struggles: Darvish just wasn’t himself after he developed hip inflammation in July. The injury didn’t cost him much time, but it did force him to adjust his mechanics and generally harmed core aspects of his game.
For instance, his average fastball dropped from 94.9 to 94.1 mph. He also had issues with his slider, of which he threw too many up in the strike zone. Hitters took advantage, tagging the pitch to the tune of a .580 slugging percentage down the stretch.
Optimistically, better health should be the only thing the 35-year-old needs to recover in 2022. But if there’s a creeping pessimistic outlook here, it’s that good health can’t necessarily be counted on at his age.
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Rick Scuteri/Associated Press
2020 Stats: 12 G, 12 GS, 81.1 IP, 73 H (10 HR), 64 K, 8 BB, 2.88 ERA, 156 ERA+, 2.1 rWAR
2021 Stats: 32 G, 32 GS, 181.0 IP, 200 H (31 HR), 131 K, 44 BB, 4.77 ERA, 89 ERA+, 0.9 rWAR
In attempting to diagnose what went wrong for Kyle Hendricks in 2021, Chicago Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy offered two explanations to Jared Wyllys of the Chicago Sun-Times.
For one, the 32-year-old righty was dealing with “different motivation” amid the Cubs’ first season as a non-contender since 2014. For two, he got away from his strengths and generally lost sight of “what makes him the best version of himself.”
The surface-level wreckage is all right there. Hendricks posted the second-lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2021, as well as his highest home run rate. Alarmingly, the latter was a likely inevitable byproduct of a rate of batted balls in the sweet spot that’s generally been on the rise.
So perhaps it’s fair to wonder if Hendricks’ real problem wasn’t that he changed too much in 2021, but that he didn’t change enough.
His pitch hierarchy has been set for a while now, with his sinker as his primary offering and then his changeup, four-seamer and curveball. Judging from increased swing rates in the strike zone and early in counts, batters have him figured. Throwing them off the scent might require him making significant adjustments.
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Duane Burleson/Associated Press
2020 Stats: 11 G, 11 GS, 63.1 IP, 52 H (2 HR), 42 K, 17 BB, 1.99 ERA, 224 ERA+, 2.1 rWAR
2021 Stats: 32 G, 30 GS, 162.0 IP, 189 H (25 HR), 95 K, 59 BB, 5.28 ERA, 82 ERA+, 0.0 rWAR
Dallas Keuchel’s triumphant run to the American League Cy Young Award in 2015 might as well be ancient history, but he was still good in 2018 and 2019 and once again ace-like in 2020.
Even in 2021, the 34-year-old looked like his usual self in at least one respect. By inducing a 54.9 ground-ball percentage, he ranked third among qualified starters.
Yet even that kind of ground-ball magnetism did little to widen a margin for error that was otherwise thinned by too many walks and not enough strikeouts. To wit, the Chicago White Sox left-hander’s strikeout-to-walk ratio was his worst since he first broke into the league back in 2012.
According to Maddie Lee of NBC Sports Chicago, Keuchel traced his issues back to his trademark sinker. It was actually moving too much, thereby upsetting the delicate balance he usually achieves with his command. Among other things, that contributed to fewer instances of batters chasing outside the strike zone.
Since that trend actually began last year, however, it’s possible Keuchel is more than one fix away from being an ace again. Just sayin’: If ever there was a time to resurrect his fallen slider, it’s now.
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Matt Slocum/Associated Press
2020 Stats: 12 G, 12 GS, 71.1 IP, 54 H (9 HR), 96 HR, 23 BB, 3.28 ERA, 137 ERA+, 2.1 rWAR
2021 Stats: 32 G, 32 GS, 180.1 IP, 165 H (26 HR), 223 K, 39 BB, 4.63 ERA, 90 ERA+, 2.3 rWAR
Between 2017 and 2020, Aaron Nola was one of just five pitchers who tossed at least 650 innings with an ERA+ north of 130.
His downfall in 2021 was all the more surprising because of how little sense it seemed to make. He actually achieved the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career. And while he did give up more home runs, it wasn’t that many more than in 2019 and 2020 on a rate basis.
Such things make it tempting to surmise that Nola, 28, was victimized by the Philadelphia Phillies’ poor defense. And, to be fair, his worse-than-expected batting average on non-homer batted balls bears that out.
However, it’s not the fault of the Phillies’ defense that Nola also saw a huge downturn in his ground-ball rate. He only has himself to blame there, as such a thing would happen amid a year marked by more frequent four-seam fastballs and generally higher pitch locations.
One bright side is that Nola’s stuff itself remained quite good. Compared to 2020, he was throwing harder and spinning the ball better. The latter is particularly encouraging in context of baseball’s sticky stuff ban.
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Elise Amendola/Associated Press
2020 Stats: 12 G, 12 GS, 67.0 IP, 60 H (6 HR), 72 K, 17 BB, 2.69 ERA, 164 ERA+, 2.9 rWAR
2021 Stats: 31 G, 31 GS, 169.0 IP, 170 H (24 HR), 143 K, 37 BB, 4.37 ERA, 100 ERA+, 1.7 rWAR
Hyun-Jin Ryu may have only made 54 starts between 2018 and 2020, but he made the most of them by trailing only Jacob deGrom with a 2.30 ERA and 179 ERA+.
As for 2021, it’s not to be overlooked that the 34-year-old lefty made 30 starts for the first time since 2013. Yet he obviously wasn’t as effective, and his reduced strikeouts and increased exit velocity make it clear that it wasn’t a fluke.
Right-handed batters, in particular, got to the Toronto Blue Jays southpaw in 2021. They did most of their feasting (i.e., .561 SLG) against his four-seam fastball, which he notably featured more often than he did between 2017 and 2020.
An odd choice, knowing that the pitch sits right around 90 mph with subpar spin. Barring the possibility of an unspoken physical reason, perhaps Ryu just trusted his fastball more than his changeup in the face of the latter’s diminished effectiveness.
All in all, Ryu just sort of had a weird year in 2021. But provided he can stay healthy, he’s crafty enough to make the adjustments he needs to pitch like an ace again.
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David Zalubowski/Associated Press
2020 Stats: 55 G, 246 PA, 16 HR, 10 SB, .292 AVG, .366 OBP, .562 SLG, 147 OPS+, 3.6 rWAR
2021 Stats: 122 G, 550 PA, 23 HR, 10 SB, .274 AVG, .367 OBP, .487 SLG, 128 OPS+, 4.2 rWAR
It’s a reach to say that Mookie Betts had a bad year in 2021, but he definitely wasn’t the same guy who led all of MLB in wins above replacement between 2016 and 2020.
Like Darvish, Betts can point to a hip injury as the cause of last year’s distress. If anything, it’s commendable that the Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder played through it as well as he did.
It seems likely that Betts’ bum hip was the root cause of the power drain he experienced in 2021. Though the drain was slight overall, the 89.9 mph that he averaged on fly balls and line drives to right field encapsulated how much trouble he had driving the ball the other way.
Yet it was more so Betts’ athleticism that suffered. At 27.1 feet per second, his average sprint was way down last year. That naturally limited him on the basepaths, but also on defense. The quality of his jumps was down, and he ended up with exactly zero outs above average.
On the plus side, Betts avoided surgery and was feeling “great” as of November. So barring any setbacks, there isn’t much reason to believe the 29-year-old won’t revert to his usual superstar form in 2022.
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Nick Wass/Associated Press
2020 Stats: 54 G, 233 PA, 9 HR, 3 SB, .322 AVG, .412 OBP, .515 SLG, 154 OPS+, 2.1 rWAR
2021 Stats: 125 G, 479 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .232 AVG, .344 OBP, .384 SLG, 101 OPS+, 0.8 rWAR
At the outset of the 2021 season, Michael Conforto was well entrenched as one of baseball’s top hitters and seemingly a sure thing for a lucrative multiyear contract in free agency.
As for why he’s not that guy now, the time that he missed last season with a hamstring strain and a positive COVID test didn’t help. But he was also just plain out of whack.
For one thing, he fell short of his usual production against right-handers largely because he just couldn’t hit (i.e., .260 SLG) their breaking balls. More broadly, a decreased rate of batted balls in the sweet spot and lesser exit velocity to the opposite field put a dent in his power.
And yet it was to Conforto’s pull side that his production really dropped off in 2021. Was it the shift? You betcha. He pulled as many outs into the shift as he did in 2018, in which he played in 28 more games than he did last season.
All this is to say that whoever signs Conforto will have to do so knowing that he doesn’t just need better luck in order to bounce back in 2022.
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Adam Hunger/Associated Press
2020 Stats: 50 G, 216 PA, 10 HR, 3 SB, .364 AVG, .421 OBP, .590 SLG, 178 OPS+, 3.1 rWAR
2021 Stats: 150 G, 679 PA, 10 HR, 4 SB, .268 AVG, .349 OBP, .362 SLG, 97 OPS+, 1.5 rWAR
As baffling as it was to watch DJ LeMahieu struggle to keep the hits coming in 2021, New York Yankees fans eventually got a good explanation for it: He was playing through an injury.
Specifically, a sports hernia that necessitated surgery in October. The good news is that he should be fully recovered by spring training, in which case there won’t be much besides age standing between the 33-year-old and a return to form in 2022.
The big tell will be LeMahieu’s power. Because he was in the 91st percentile for strikeout rate and even drew a career-best walk percentage, he only had 13 more extra-base hits in 2021 than he had in 2020 despite playing in three times as many games.
Weirdly, LeMahieu barely lost exit velocity on air balls to right field. His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives to center and left field, on the other hand, was down by several miles per hour compared to 2019 and 2020.
Though those aren’t LeMahieu’s primary power alleys, it’ll nonetheless be a good sign for the Yankees if they’re back open in 2022.
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David Zalubowski/Associated Press
2020 Stats: 59 G, 259 PA, 11 HR, 15 SB, .289 AVG, .355 SLG, .519 SLG, 120 OPS+, 2.5 rWAR
2021 Stats: 142 G, 595 PA, 24 HR, 20 SB, .251 AVG, .329 OBP, .471 SLG, 103 OPS+, 4.2 rWAR
A 20-20 season with an above-average OPS+ and WAR worthy of an All-Star? Most guys will take that for a “down” season.
What’s more, Trevor Story did all that despite serious bad luck. By Statcast’s estimates, he hit about 13 fewer home runs than he should have.
And yet, real faults did arise in Story’s offensive game. For example, the fact that he achieved yet another new low for strikeout rate obscures increases in his overall swing rate and chase rate.
Speculatively, Story might have been pressing a little. Or a lot. With Nolan Arenado gone and Charlie Blackmon starting to show his age, it was up to him to carry the Colorado Rockies. He was also involved in trade rumors. And all the while, free agency was looming.
But even if a fresh start with another team is just what Story needs on this front, the field may be another matter. He needs to reclaim some arm strength if he wants to get his metrics back up, and that may not be possible if his right elbow is still compromised.
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Nick Wass/Associated Press
2020 Stats: 54 G, 225 PA, 10 HR, 2 SB, .297 AVG, .400 OBP, .568 OBP, 164 OPS+, 2.6 rWAR
2021 Stats: 139 G, 532 PA, 25 HR, 4 SB, .224 AVG, .311 OBP, .457 SLG, 106 OPS+, 2.5 rWAR
There arguably isn’t enough in Mike Yastrzemski’s body of work to justify the “star” label, but pardon us for not being able to ignore the 136 OPS+ and 31 homers he had across 2019 and 2020.
Though Yaz the Younger didn’t live up to that standard in 2021, he performed admirably even as he had buzzard’s luck with injuries. He was hit on the hand before the season even started and later dealt with an oblique strain and a thumb sprain.
Even still, the 31-year-old will need more than good health if he wants to reestablish himself in 2022.
Frankly, the San Francisco Giants could even make him a platoon player if he doesn’t shape up against left-handers. After doing better than a .900 OPS against them in 2019 and 2020, he slipped to just a .513 OPS last year.
Yastrzemski will specifically have to adjust to left-handers’ fastballs, which mostly went from up and away in 2019 and 2020 to down and away in 2021. That was a shift away from his red zones, so he’ll have to either expand on them or move them.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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