North Carolina’s Caleb LoveGerry Broome/Associated Press
Last Team In: Wyoming Cowboys (17-3, NET: 35, RES: 36.5, QUAL: 79.3)
Four-bid Mountain West? Four-bid Mountain West! All four are in the Nos. 9-12 seed range, so it wouldn’t take much wind for that house of cards to blow over. After an overtime win over Colorado State on Monday night, though, the Cowboys slide into our latest projection. And if they do end up making the tournament, watch out. The trio of Hunter Maldonado, Drake Jeffries and Graham Ike could make the Sweet 16.
Second-to-Last In: Stanford Cardinal (12-7, NET: 89, RES: 43.0, QUAL: 91.7)
At the start of the day Sunday, there were only eight teams in the country with more Quadrant 1 wins than Stanford, which polished off a season sweep of USC with a Thursday night road win. The Cardinal’s predictive metrics are unsightly, in large part because their losses to Baylor, Arizona and UCLA were by a combined margin of 89 points. But with five wins over projected tournament teams and no downright terrible losses, they slide into the field for now.
Third-to-Last In: North Carolina Tar Heels (15-6, NET: 37, RES: 39.0, QUAL: 30.7)
North Carolina’s scoring margin at home is plus-16.1 PPG. Away from home, it’s minus-6.2 PPG. But the Tar Heels played a pair of home games this past week to sneak back into the at-large mix, this despite an 0-6 record against Quadrant 1. They have five road games left, plus the massive home game against Duke this coming Saturday. They better win at least three of those games (and all of the other home games) if they want to dance.
Fourth-to-Last In: San Francisco Dons (17-5, NET: 40, RES: 50.0, QUAL: 45.3)
After blowing a 23-point first-half lead in the home loss to Saint Mary’s this week, San Francisco has fallen into the danger zone. Early wins over Davidson, UAB and Fresno State still look good, but the Dons cannot afford to tiptoe through WCC play without picking up any wins over BYU, Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s. They are 0-1 against each of those squads, with a massive road game against BYU coming up Thursday.
Fifth-to-Last In: Oregon Ducks (13-7, NET: 58, RES: 62.5, QUAL: 43.7)
The home loss to Colorado was a Quadrant 3 misstep, but the Ducks are still in decent shape from the mid-January road sweep of UCLA and USC. They just about need to win these next five against Colorado, Utah, Stanford, California and Arizona State, though, or else they’ll have some work to do during the subsequent three-game gauntlet against Arizona, UCLA and USC.
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