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Green Bay Packers fans spent Super Wild Card Weekend waiting to see their team in action. They drew the No. 1 seed and the NFC’s lone playoff bye. San Francisco 49ers fans, meanwhile, watched as their team pulled off the only upset of the weekend.
Now, the sixth-seeded 49ers will travel to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in one of the more intriguing matchups of the weekend.
On one side, we have a dominant Packers team that clinched the top seed by Week 17; on the other, we have a 49ers squad that has been playing virtual elimination games for more than a month.
It’s a battle between the league’s likely MVP and a 49ers ground attack capable of taking over a game—as it did against the Dallas Cowboys this past Sunday.
Here, you’ll find a look at the latest odds and some stat projections for the game’s top names.
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Line: Green Bay -5.5
Over/Under: 47
Money Line: Green Bay -250 (bet $250 to win $100), San Francisco +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Nic Antaya/Getty Images
Aaron Rodgers is likely your 2021 NFL MVP.
While nothing is official yet, the same voters who determined this year’s All-Pro team vote on MVP, and the Packers star beat out Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady to earn a first-team selection.
“Aaron Rodgers got 34 votes to 16 for Tom Brady for All-Pro. It’s the same voters so Rodgers essentially just won MVP,” NFL Media’s Gregg Rosenthal tweeted on January 14.
With an added week of preparation and a week off, the 38-year-old should be at his best against a stout 49ers defense. San Francisco ranked sixth in passing yards allowed during the regular season and ninth in points allowed. However, it may be without star pass-rusher Nick Bosa, who is in the concussion protocol.
The 49ers are hopeful that the 24-year-old will be cleared to play.
“It’s looking good,” 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said, per ESPN’s Nick Wagoner.
Rodgers has an over/under of 264.5 passing yards for this game, and he might hit the over out of necessity. While the 49ers pass defense can be stifling, the run defense is equally good—San Francisco ranks seventh in yards per carry allowed.
That extra week of prep time and the uncertainty surrounding Bosa could go a long way toward helping Green Bay win here.
Stat Prediction: 285 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
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Rodgers is going to rely heavily on wide receiver Davante Adams because, well, that’s what he does. Adams is as clear-cut a top target as there is in the NFL, and the veteran quarterback rarely relies on his second option to take over a game.
According to Pro Football Reference, Adams was targeted 169 times during the regular season. That’s 29.6 percent of the team’s total targets. No other player on the Packers’ roster was targeted more than 65 times.
Presumably, the 49ers will make a concerted effort to take the 29-year-old out of the game plan. Regular double coverage may keep him from breaking the game open, but it isn’t likely to limit his role significantly.
Adams has over/unders set at 92.5 receiving yards and 7.5 receptions, which fall in line with his regular-season numbers. In 2021, he averaged 7.7 receptions and 97 receiving yards.
Expect the 49ers to do a good job of forcing Rodgers to look elsewhere for the big play, but don’t expect them to be able to contain him completely.
Stat Prediction: 9 receptions, 94 receiving yards, 1 TD
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Roger Steinman/Associated Press
The 49ers have their own elite receiver in third-year man Deebo Samuel.
Like Rodgers and Adams, the 26-year-old was named a first-team All-Pro this season. What’s unique about the San Francisco star is that he’s just as dangerous as a runner as he is a pass-catcher.
Samuel finished the regular season with 1,405 receiving yards, 365 rushing yards and 14 combined touchdowns. Against the Cowboys on Sunday, he caught three passes for 38 yards and rushed 10 times for 72 and a touchdown.
Expect San Francisco to heavily utilize the South Carolina product as a runner in this game. The Packers rank 10th in passing yards allowed and fifth in yards per pass attempt surrendered. They could also have star cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder) in the lineup for the first time since Week 4.
Kyle Shanahan will likely look to test an inconsistent Packers run defense early and often. Green Bay ranked only 30th in yards per carry allowed.
Samuel has over/unders set at 55.5 receiving yards and 39.5 rushing yards. He might not hit the over in receiving—especially if he sees a heavy dose of Alexander—but Samuel may have to hit the rushing over for the 49ers to even have a chance.
State Prediction: 4 receptions, 48 receiving yards, 69 rushing yards, 1 TD
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