5 Factors That Will Decide Ben Simmons’ Fate with Philadelphia 76ers

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The NBA trade deadline is two days away, and the biggest trade chip of them all, a 25-year-old, 6’11” unicorn of a point guard, remains very available. While multiple league executives polled by Bleacher Report predict Philadelphia won’t find a partner before the trade deadline for Ben Simmons, The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported last week the Sixers are pursuing a trade package prior to Thursday’s deadline that’s centered around Brooklyn’s James Harden. 

There’s plenty of good reasons to infer a Simmons trade is imminent, and plenty of good reasons to dismiss those theories. 

The main reasons for skepticism: No superstars are truly available for trade right now, and Philly will not accept a trade for anything less. 

The main reasons for belief: The Sixers are among the top contenders in the East and have an All-NBA player who might age out of his prime quickly in Joel Embiid.

But a look between the lines reveals a layered dynamic. Zoom out and the likelihood of a Simmons trade looks different.

Has Simmons’ absence hurt his trade value?

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Good luck finding an NBA team that couldn’t use Simmons’ tremendous size, strength, length and court vision. He’s a three-time All-Star (2019-21) who can effectively defend all five positions on the floor. He was named to the NBA All-Defensive first team each of the last two seasons. 

The Sixers, better than any franchise, are aware of his mercurial talent and the kind of haul they should get in exchange for him. But has the rest of the league forgotten? 

“He hasn’t played all year,” said an Eastern Conference executive. “Teams want to see what they’re getting. And, no, those individual workouts where he’s shooting threes and doing all this stuff that we never see in games won’t cut it.” 

Simmons must also learn how to play with a different team, with different attitudes and egos, in a different culture than the only one he has known as a player. There will be an adjustment period both in terms of playing as well as embracing and understanding his new surroundings.

Add that to the list of reasons executives don’t believe teams will pay Philadelphia’s asking price, which executives across the league have said is “ridiculously” high. The price? At least one All-Star-caliber player or one who is well on his way to All-Star status.

Would Simmons agree to play for Philadelphia if he’s not traded?

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Simmons is just the latest NBA player who has made an effort to take a firmer grip of control when it comes to his basketball career, regardless of contractual obligations. 

After Simmons’ trade demand went public, his camp had reason to believe things would work out for his best interest, akin to some current NBA All-Stars essentially talking their way out of town. 

Anthony Davis convinced his former team, the New Orleans Pelicans, to trade him to his preferred destination, the Los Angeles Lakers. A similar power play was made by James Harden in getting the Houston Rockets to trade him to Brooklyn. 

But Simmons’ position is unique. He is trying to exit Philadelphia with several years left on a five-year, $177 million extension that runs through the 2024-25 season.

The Sixers have expressed hope Simmons will have a change of heart, but most indications from Simmons’ camp suggest he won’t agree to anything other than a trade. Simmons wanting out has nothing to do with money or winning. 

Instead, his issues stem from his late-game struggles in Philadelphia’s second-round series against Atlanta last season, and the disconnect those struggles created between Simmons, head coach Doc Rivers and Embiid.

It has created an uncomfortable scenario for all involved, leaving very few appealing paths for Simmons. If he returns to play for Philadelphia, he’ll get hell from fans and media. Keep skipping games, and risk getting the John Wall treatment.

The Embiid factor 

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Simmons has little leverage to dictate anything, but there’s an opportunity cost for Philadelphia without its second-highest-paid player at the season’s crossroads. Remove any contender’s second-best player and it is not playing in June. 

“We want to, for Joel, we have to make sure we get this right and that we move ourselves into a higher tier of championship, ability to win the championship,” Morey said in a recent radio interview with Mike Missanelli. “Not just nudge ourselves from having the seventh-best chance to maybe the sixth-best chance in the league. It just doesn’t make sense.” 

A year ago, Embiid finished runner-up to Denver’s Nikola Jokic for league MVP. This season he’s been just as good, entrenched among the top-tier players in the NBA. He will once again garner some MVP votes. 

The 7-footer has missed only two games since the beginning of December. If Embiid plays in every game for the rest of the season, he will have made 70 appearances—six more than the career-high 64 games he played in during the 2018-19 season. 

One of the keys to Embiid’s success: maintaining relatively good health, far from a given when you consider the arc of his NBA basketball career. Embiid missed all of his first two NBA seasons (2014-15 and 2015-16) due to injuries. 

Here’s some concerning math: Embiid has missed more regular-season games (307) than he’s played (301). It’s a cold calculus, but how many games should Morey expect Embiid to play over the next five years of his contract, which will take the 7-footer into his 30s? 

Embiid’s long-term viability should be part of the Simmons trade urgency. But would Morey or Embiid act from a position of fear? If it happens now, let’s just say that won’t be the spin from Philly.

Simmons and Rich Paul have a lot to lose 

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With less than a week remaining before the trade deadline, it’s desperate times. Speaking a trade into existence may be Rich Paul’s only remaining recourse to save face.

If the Sixers can’t get a deal done, Simmons will likely miss a year of his prime, not to mention loads of money. According to ESPN’s 76ers” target=”_blank”>Ramona Shelburne, the Sixers have fined Simmons more than $19 million this season. If the trade deadline passes and Simmons continues to withhold his services, that number climbs indefinitely.

It’s possible Simmons recoups some of the money he’s lost in arbitration. Multiple league executives contacted by Bleacher Report expect Simmons’ camp, led by Klutch Sports’ Paul, and the NBPA to fight for that money. 

Still, a no-trade scenario is a bad look for Paul, who has presided over Simmons’ trade request and holdout. Paul has built a reputation for strong-arm negotiation tactics, the limits of which we are witnessing.

Eastern Conference rival realities 

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The Sixers (32-21) are fifth in the Eastern Conference, just two games out of first place. They have the profile of a potent playoff team: a top-10 defense and inside-outside balance on offense. But as one executive told B/R, the Sixers are going to need Simmons or a player of equal impact to be on the short list of legit title contenders.  

Hitting the most important stretch of the season with their second-best (and second-highest-paid) player out of the equation is simply a dream-killer. 

But a Nets trade seems unlikely. Read what you want into their recent skid and public discord, but they have three still-in-their-prime superstars, none of whom are late-game liabilities in the playoffs. Harden may be unhappy in Brooklyn, as B/R’s Jake Fischer reported in late January, but if you already have a title shot, why give a conference rival better odds?

And are the Sixers really desperate for Harden instead of some of the other stars who may end up available for trade this offseason, like Bradley Beal or Damian Lillard? ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Saturday night there’s a good chance Harden is still a Net after the trade deadline, and there’s a good case to be made Harden and Embiid don’t fit well.