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USWNT vs. Mexico: Odds and Predictions for 2022 CONCACAF W Championship

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The United States women’s national team already accomplished one of its two objectives at the Concacaf W Championship.

The USWNT locked in a berth for the 2023 Women’s World Cup by securing a top-two finish in its group.

The 2024 Olympics is the next goal for the USWNT. It needs to win the competition to earn an automatic berth to Paris.

Vlatko Andonovski’s side can move one step closer its Olympic goal with a win over Mexico on Monday.

Mexico has had a disaster of a tournament, as it suffered losses to Haiti and Jamaica. The host nation is not able to advance out of the group stage and is playing solely for pride on Monday night.

The USWNT comes into the rivalry match as an overwhelming favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. It is listed as a -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100) favorite, while Mexico is a +2000 (bet $100 to win $2,000) underdog on the money line.

Prediction

United States 5, Mexico 0

The USWNT produced eight goals in its first two games at the Concacaf W Championship.

A 3-0 win over Haiti started the competition and that was followed by a 5-0 thumping of Jamaica.

The Americans have done a good job of starting strong and finishing with an emphatic burst of form in the final third.

Four of the eight goals scored down in Mexico have been netted before the 25th minute. Sophia Smith bagged a brace in eight minutes against Jamaica and Alex Morgan achieved the same feat in 23 minutes versus Haiti.

Three of the other four tallies have come in the final 10 minutes of contests. The lone outlier was a 59th-minute goal out of Rose Lavelle against Jamaica.

Another fast start is imperative on Monday to kill any remaining morale within the Mexican camp. Mexico came into the tournament with a strong chance of finishing second in Group A and it has become the competition’s biggest disappointment.

Mexico fell 1-0 to Jamaica in its opening game through a concession in the eighth minute. It conceded two penalties and a 78th-minute goal from open play in its defeat against Haiti.

The host nation likely will come away from the tournament with zero points because it has been unable to upset the USWNT in most of the 41 previous meetings between the two nations.

The USWNT owns 39 wins, one draw and one loss in action against its rival to the south. A pair of 4-0 wins last July added to the victorious haul over Mexico.

USWNT manager Vlatko Andonovski could use Monday’s match as a chance to experiment with a few things, or to rotate his squad ahead of the knockout round, which begins on Thursday. The Americans will likely play the runner-up of Group B, which will either be Canada or Costa Rica.

The plus-eight goal differential in hand gives the USWNT some wiggle room in case a bad performance comes out of the woodwork. Haiti comes into its match with Jamaica with a zero goal differential and Jamaica sits at minus-four after its 5-0 loss to the Americans.

Andonovski could use some sort of rotation, especially up top, to keep Alex Morgan and Sophia Smith fresh. The pair of in-form goal scorers will likely be relied upon to score most of the goals in the knockout round.

The USWNT could start one set of forwards and then rotate in two or three more in the second half to give everyone playing time and to keep the Mexican defense on its heels.

Rotation may also be used in the defensive and midfield positions to give Rose Lavelle, Lindsey Horan and others some fresh legs with two more matches coming up in the next week with the Olympics on the line.

The USWNT should cruise past Mexico regardless of which players are on the field. The early tallies in the two Concacaf W Championship wins prove the team is laser focused on its goals and it has shown the killer instinct in the second half to keep opponents out of games.

Mexico is searching for anything positive out of the tournament, but it will not get that against a team that it has struggled mightily against in its program history.

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