Analysts agree with McDonald: ‘If you’re dropping off him, you’re a harsh critic’

It’ll be of little comfort to the Hong Kong punters who did their dough at World Pool odds of $1.55 when Romantic Warrior finished fourth in the Turnbull Stakes on Saturday, but some of Australian racing’s sharpest minds have found reasons to believe his dream of Cox Plate glory is far from dead.

Shane Baker and Vince Accardi developed the ratings methodologies behind premium Australian services Punting Form and Daily Sectionals, respectively.

For the past 11 years, Punting Form has clocked and rated every race in both Australia and Hong Kong, so Baker is uniquely positioned to not only objectively compare Romantic Warrior’s Group One Turnbull Stakes (2,000m) run with his other 14 performances but also put a number on the likely rating required to win this year’s Group One Cox Plate (2,040m).

On Punting Form’s figures – which reflect the race-day conditions, including its assessment of the ground that does not take the official rating as gospel – Romantic Warrior ran 13.2 lengths faster than its all-average benchmark number in the Turnbull Stakes – that’s 1.2 lengths quicker than his first-up victory in last season’s Group Two Jockey Club Cup (2,000m) and 1.2 lengths slower than his second-up success in last term’s Group One Hong Kong Cup (2,000m).

Baker said Punting Form’s data on recent Cox Plates and Romantic Warrior’s probable rivals in this year’s edition of Australasia’s unofficial weight-for-age championship race suggests Danny Shum Chap-shing’s star would only have to improve a few lengths on his Turnbull Stakes effort to be a winning hope.

“Somewhere between 15 and 16 lengths faster than Punting Form’s benchmark is what it usually takes to win a Cox Plate,” Baker said. “This year, given there’s no Winx from Australia or Lys Gracieux from overseas, a 15 rating may do it. With the horses engaged, I’d be surprised if it goes past that.

“Gold Trip’s Turnbull Stakes-winning performance was quite a powerful one, but 15.6 lengths is as good as he’s likely to go over 2,000m. If Romantic Warrior can improve two or three lengths on his weekend run, he has a chance of being in the Cox Plate finish.

“Normally, New Zealand and other international horses don’t run their best races first up in Australia, so unless there are other issues and Romantic Warrior can’t improve out of the Turnbull Stakes, you’re not going to throw the toys out of the cot and say there’s no point. He’s not hopeless, that’s for sure.”

Dissecting the Turnbull Stakes on his Year Round Carnival podcast with Ralph Horowitz, Accardi said the Flemington track and James McDonald’s stop-start ride contributed to Romantic Warrior’s four-length loss.

“The ground conditions were 100 per cent in the soft range – well and truly – all the way to the 600m,” said Accardi, taking issue with the Racing Victoria stewards who upgraded Flemington from a soft five to a good four one hour before the Turnbull Stakes began.

“I’ve no doubt the ground conditions couldn’t have worked for [Romantic Warrior] for at least half of the race. This horse needs clean, dry ground.

“West Wind Blows and Romantic Warrior – both of their jockeys held their horses up a little bit too much between the 400m and the 200m. West Wind Blows has been penalised 2.3 lengths – that’s a negative – and Romantic Warrior has been penalised 1.5 lengths.

“The slowing of both those horses didn’t help their causes because they both rebounded with stronger overall last 200m [figures], giving you a bit of a signal the energy distribution wasn’t on point.”

From a long line of horsemen, Michael Kent Junior is one of the rising stars of Australia’s training ranks. On Sunday’s edition of The Wrap on racing.com, Kent said Romantic Warrior is “the horse who’ll come out of [the Turnbull Stakes] the best” in his expert opinion.

“I went through his trackwork,” said Kent, who trains in partnership with Mick Price. “Since his run in May this year, he’s had 10 bits of fast work over no further than half a mile and one barrier trial. Out of the race, he’s the horse who’ll come out of it the best. He’ll come on a lot. Three weeks now until the Cox Plate. I wouldn’t write him off. He’s going very well.”

Turnbull fourth sees Warrior loses Cox Plate favouritism but not McDonald’s faith

You’d expect James McDonald to stick fat with Romantic Warrior, and the Kiwi rider did precisely that on Monday, telling RSN Racing & Sport host Andrew Bensley: “If you’re dropping off him, you’re a harsh critic. There’s so much improvement in him it’s not funny.”

Naturally, McDonald may view Romantic Warrior through rose-tinted glasses because of his relationship with the five-year-old galloper. However, another Cox Plate-winning jockey, retired four-time race victor Glen Boss, echoed the sentiments of his former peer.

“Romantic Warrior – drop off this horse at your peril,” said 2005, 2009, 2012 and 2020 Cox Plate champion Boss, a pundit for this year’s race sponsor, Australian bookmaker Ladbrokes. “He hadn’t raced since the 28th of May. [He] missed a trial before coming over and raced way too fresh in the Turnbull Stakes. He’ll improve lengths going into the Cox Plate.”

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