B/R CBB Community: Who Is Your Still-Too-Early Cinderella Pick for Sweet 16 Run?

Murray State’s Tevin BrownMark Zaleski/Associated Press

Selection Sunday is less than three weeks away, but most fans of men’s college basketball already have a good idea of which unlikely team(s) they consider capable of reaching the Sweet 16 and beyond.

We asked B/R app users for the team they think might be the Cinderella story of the 2022 men’s NCAA tournament.

Two quick thoughts/observations before we dive in.

First, a lot of you need to recalibrate what you think counts as a surprising Sweet 16 run. Alabama and Arkansas were the most popular answers, but two wins by teams in the mix for No. 5 seeds wouldn’t be a surprise at all. There were also nominations for UCLA, Duke, Texas Tech and Tennessee, each of which appeared in the selection committee’s top-16 reveal this past Saturday. It would be more surprising if those teams failed to reach the Sweet 16.

Second, several users gave some variation of “I’ll answer after I see the actual bracket,” and good on you for doing the responsible thing, not talking yourself into a dark horse before even knowing the matchups.

That’s the smart answer.

It’s also the boring answer, and we’re here to have some fun.

Here are the responses that stood out among the crowd.

Save a Bracket, Ride a Cowboy

Wyoming’s Graham IkeMatthew Idler/Associated Press

@jack_hart, @h2h003 and @karlBarx118: Wyoming

Wyoming is absolutely going to be my kryptonite in this year’s bracket, provided the Cowboys do finish strong enough to make the dance.

The Cowboys entered Wednesday’s game at Colorado State with a 22-4 record and a nice stockpile of low Quadrant 1 / solid Quadrant 2 victories. They also have a talented primary trio of Graham Ike (the frontcourt work horse), Drake Jeffries (the perimeter sniper) and Hunter Maldonado (the do-it-all 6’7″ point-forward).

However, they got stomped 94-65 at Arizona in their only game against a stone-cold lock for the NCAA tournament. Wyoming is also ranked outside the top 100 in ESPN’s BPI, which suggests that it would be expected to lose a neutral-site game against 12-15 Louisville and would only narrowly defeat 11-16 NC State.

If I had to pick a side today, though, I consider myself more of a Wyoming believer than a skeptic.

Ike strikes me as a more durable version of former Michigan State big man Nick Ward. Per KenPom, Ike leads the nation in both percentage of possessions used and fouls drawn per 40 minutes. Basically, they feed him relentlessly, and he does not shy away from contact in the slightest. Ward did that for around 18 minutes a game, but Ike has logged at least 36 minutes on nine occasions.

Sticking with the Spartan comparisons, Maldonado has a bit of a senior-year Denzel Valentine vibe going. Wyoming’s point-forward is a little bit taller and nowhere near as dangerous from three-point range, but he is averaging better than 19 points, six assists and five rebounds per game. Of the 10 players in the past three decades to put up those numbers in a season, the only ones to do so at 6’5″ or taller are Maldonado, Valentine and Penny Hardaway.

Add a fantastic three-point shooter like Jeffries and you’ve got a scary-good team that would likely land on the No. 8 or No. 9 line if the tournament started today.

#MACtion

Kent State’s Sincere CarryWilliam Wotring/Associated Press

@lukeboldon: Ohio

@D_ET: Toledo

@ASAPHERB: Kent State

@Raffle: Toledo Rockets

@bryantzwayer: Ohio Bobcats

The moral of the story here is you’re going to want to keep an eye on the Mid-American Conference tournament, because it is liable to produce a Sweet 16-caliber team.

While there’s no good way for me to prove it, I promise this section was decided upon before Tuesday night’s action, when Ohio’s Ben Vander Plas had 10 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds in a 26-point win over Central Michigan, Toledo went on the road to beat Western Michigan by 42 and Kent State extended its winning streak to nine games behind 42 points from Sincere Carry and a triple-double (17 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists) from Malique Jacobs.

The to-be-determined MAC champ was already going to be a scary No. 12 or No. 13 seed, and Tuesday further drove that point home.

Of the bunch, the metrics marginally like Toledo the best, but all three have the type of lead guard an entire nation could fall in love with next month.

Carry has averaged 21.0 points and 4.4 assists during Kent State’s nine-game winning streak. Mark Sears had scored in double figures in every game for Ohio prior to Tuesday and is one of the best free-throw shooters in the country. Toledo’s Ryan Rollins has had 16 games with at least 20 points and has flirted with several triple-doubles.

As long as the MAC champ is one of these three teams, there’s going to be a guy who can make the type of impact that Jason Preston did for Ohio in last year’s dance.

That School Up North

Michigan’s Moussa DiabateAl Goldis/Associated Press

@bkim7957: Well it’s definitely not U of M. I wish.

@dahlsheep: Not the NIT bound university of Michigan

@Luke35: Watch out for Michigan

Unsurprisingly, a lot of people have opinions on Michigan right now. Perhaps you heard the Wolverines were in the news this week, and not because they’re smack dab on the bubble.

While they certainly aren’t a conventional Cinderella candidate, let’s touch on the Wolverines since they were brought up a handful of times.

For starters, I don’t anticipate the Juwan Howard suspension making much of a difference down the stretch. It will inevitably be a talking point regardless of which direction these final five regular-season games play out, but assistant-turned-temporary-head coach Phil Martelli racked up 444 wins during his time as the head coach at Saint Joseph’s. It’s not like Michigan is going to be without experienced leadership on the sideline.

And if they do win enough games the rest of the way to get into the tournament (at least two wins, maybe three), the Wolverines could be every bit as dangerous as the UCLA team that went First Four to Final Four last season.

However, it all depends on which versions of their likely one-and-done freshmen show up in March.

Both Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate can be major difference makers. The former had a career-high 19 points in a January win at Indiana. The latter went off for 28 points in a recent win at Iowa. And they put up 14 and 15, respectively, in Michigan’s Feb. 10 blowout of Purdue.

But whether either freshman will show up on any given night is anyone’s guess. Diabate has yet to string together three consecutive games with an O-rating of 100 or better, and Houstan has had just one such three-game streak—not coincidentally coinciding with Michigan’s only three-game winning streak of the year.

As such, trusting both guys to show up in a big way throughout a tournament run seems like a great way to lose your bracket pool. However, there’s no question that Michigan can compete with anyone when firing on a all cylinders.

The Nation’s Longest Winning Streak

South Dakota State’s Baylor ScheiermanCharlie Neibergall/Associated Press

@sdsujack1999: South Dakota State. Best three-point shooting team in the country. Undefeated in conference play.

@papi_chulo7: Barring any conference tournament upsets, South Dakota State and Murray State have the potential to make a deep run.

@cole26: Murray State Racers! Great guards and got depth

@Ward4DPOY: Murray State

You might know (or correctly assume) that Gonzaga currently has the longest winning streak in the country.

But did you know the Zags are tied with both Murray State and South Dakota State for that honor? Each of those three teams has won 16 consecutive games dating back to before Christmas.

Are either the Racers or the Jackrabbits a legitimate threat to reach the second weekend, though?

For Murray State, my answer is a resounding yes. The Racers have won 23 of their past 24 games with the lone loss coming at Auburn by a respectable 13-point margin. During that time, they won at Memphis (while the Tigers were at full strength), at Belmont by 22 points and they beat fellow Cinderella candidate, Chattanooga, by double digits.

Yes, most of their wins (17 at last check) were either against Quadrant 4 or non-D1 competition, and, yes, they’ve had a few close calls as of late against what is predominantly a not-good Ohio Valley Conference this year. But most of the metrics paint Murray State as a team that should win its first-round game (if seeded properly as a No. 7 or No. 8) and a team that could give a No. 1 or No. 2 seed one heck of a scare for a spot in the Sweet 16.

South Dakota State is much more likely to end up as a No. 12 or No. 13 seed (provided it wins the Summit League tournament), but I already pity the No. 4 and/or No. 5 seed that has to figure out how to slow down this offensive assault.

The Jackrabbits are leading the nation in three-point shooting by a “Steph Curry vs. everyone else” sort of margin. They are currently sitting at 45.2 percent as a team; Purdue in second place at 40.3 percent. They could literally shoot 0-of-76 from three-point range against Oral Roberts on Thursday and still be slightly ahead of the Boilermakers.

All six Jackrabbits who have attempted at least 65 three-pointers have made at least 40 percent of them, and half of those guys are at 50 percent or better. Just ridiculous stuff.

They are terrible on defense, though. Like, outside the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency terrible.

But you know what? So was Oral Roberts last year. Anything’s possible when the Summit League champ gets rolling.

Kerry Miller covers men’s college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.