B/R College Football Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Offseason Betting Guide
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Now, Locks of the Week must rest.
After a wonderful college football season—one that ended the year on a heater—the sport must now slumber before things get weird again.
With that said, we will not (and cannot) go quietly. While there won’t be any games outside of spring scrimmages until fall, we can still get a jump on the futures markets.
Win totals, conference odds and other betting opportunities will be unveiled in the coming months, so, for now, our options are somewhat limited. Have no fear, though; we’re still ready to make the most of it.
This particular sendoff focuses on the national championship and the Heisman odds for the 2022-23 season. I’ve targeted a favorite I like and also a selection down the board for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
As a disclaimer, these picks can change over the coming months. Injuries, transfer portal additions, roster adjustments and more will undoubtedly swing these decisions, but it also won’t stop us from making them now.
Before we kick things back up in the summer, here is our last Locks of the Week. Happy hunting.
Ohio State (+550) to Win the National Championship at DraftKings
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The Buckeyes are not the chalk. That honor belongs to Alabama (+225), and understandably so.
Ohio State also is behind Georgia (+270). But at more than 5/1, I am more than happy to back the Buckeyes.
This offense, of course, will say goodbye to some enormously gifted players. Wideouts Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are off to the NFL. While these are massive voids to fill, we saw in the Rose Bowl how equipped Ohio State is to fill them.
Wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba is poised to be the best wideout in the nation, and his eye-popping 347-yard performance in the Rose Bowl is a sign of things to come. Throw in Marvin Harrison Jr., who scored three touchdowns in that game, and the offense is likely to be as explosive—if not more so—once again.
The center of it all is quarterback C.J. Stroud. More on him in a bit.
The fact that he’s handing the ball off to TreVeyon Henderson, one of the best young running backs in the sport, is yet another luxury.
But where I believe this team will improve most is on defense. The hiring of defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is significant, and the pieces Ohio State has to work with across the defensive line give him a solid foundation.
The season begins against Notre Dame and ends at home against Michigan. In between, there are some quality matchups, including road trips at Michigan State and Penn State and a home game against Wisconsin.
Still, it’s plenty manageable.
I would be shocked if Ohio State is not a playoff team next year. When it comes to betting on teams to win the national title, it has to start with the Buckeyes.
Miami (+6000) to Win the National Championship at DraftKings
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I know, I know.
A lot—and I mean A LOT—has to happen for this one to go right. Let’s begin there, though their 60/1 odds should be a fine explanation itself. It would be somewhat shocking to see Miami take this kind of leap in Year 1 under Mario Cristobal, but I believe there are enough interesting pieces to give it a look.
The Hurricanes enter the season having won five of the final six games to close out the year. They then went and hired Cristobal, who should provide an immediate surge.
He, in turn, brought in Kevin Steele to run his defense and Josh Gattis to run his offense. These were excellent hires, and I expect the returns to be somewhat instant.
Why I am willing to give this a shot, however, is because of quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. The glimpses I saw from him during his freshman season were superb, and the numbers were as well.
Van Dyke threw for at least 300 yards in his final six games, and he scored at least three touchdowns in all of those games. The schedule is conducive for more huge games throughout the year.
Yes, Miami plays at Texas A&M and Clemson on the road, and both teams could start the season inside the top eight next year. But the rest looks mighty reasonable.
A leap, while unlikely, isn’t out of the realm of possibility. When you dig for value, you’re bound to find some issues. Miami has plenty, but the momentum feels very real.
C.J. Stroud (+350) to Win the Heisman at FanDuel
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Despite looking a little overwhelmed early last season, C.J. Stroud accounted for 44 touchdowns and only six interceptions. It was a fabulous year for the Ohio State QB, who is poised to significantly improve on his first year as a starter.
For the Big Ten and the rest of college football, that is a terrifying thought.
I’ve already explained why I love Ohio State heading into next year, and this Heisman pick should come as no surprise. While the national champion and Heisman winner don’t always align—just look at Georgia this past season—they’re often linked closely together. (Alabama QB Bryce Young, who won the Heisman, was awfully close.)
Yes, Stroud lost his top two wideouts, but he should have a wealth of capable targets to throw to next fall. He also plays in a system designed to post huge numbers. And the schedule, as referenced, should allow him to have games much like the one we saw against Michigan State.
In that game, Stroud threw for nearly 400 yards and six touchdowns…in the first half.
The team, the talent, the schedule and the player—all of the pieces are in place for Stroud to be a finalist for the award once again. Only this time, he’ll walk away as the winner.
Will Anderson Jr. (+5000) to Win the Heisman at FanDuel
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Yes, I want this to happen.
I will not ever lie to you in this space.
Seeing a defensive player win the Heisman would bring me tremendous joy. And seeing a player as deserving as Will Anderson Jr. win the award would somehow make the moment that much sweeter.
Anderson is the best player in the sport. At this point, I’m not sure it’s all too controversial to make that declaration. But since he plays linebacker, he’ll have to work harder to win the Heisman.
His 33.5 tackles for loss—11.5 more than any player in the country—were not enough to win it. Neither were his 17.5 sacks. (Also, the best in college football.)
While Anderson finished fifth in the Heisman voting, he will return to Alabama with more hype than any defensive player in recent memory. He will once again need to post gaudy statistics to compete for the award, but 50/1 still feels like tremendous value.
There is a movement building amongst Heisman voters for a defensive player to win. That is not just a hunch; I’ve spoken to many of them who are still stunned that Anderson didn’t win or even secure an invite to New York City.
It’s a matter of time before a defensive player wins for the first time since Charles Woodson took home the hardware in 1997. Anderson will start the year as the most talented player in the sport playing for the nation’s premier college football program.
As long as Alabama wins all or most of its games, which it should, Anderson should be in striking distance. It will be tough for him to post the kind of numbers he did last year, but he might not have to.
The buzz is building. The legend is growing. Grab 50/1 while you can.
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