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John Munson/Associated Press
Igor Shesterkin is having a monster season for the New York Rangers.
The heir to Henrik Lundqvist’s net is sporting an otherworldly .941 save percentage with a 1.95 goals-against average. It’s no surprise that the 26-year-old Russian netminder is considered to be the favorite for the Vezina Trophy, given to the NHL’s best goalie for their performance during the regular season.
With Shesterkin and the Rangers in the spotlight for Wednesday’s NHL on TNT matchup against the St. Louis Blues, it has us at B/R wondering whether he’s got the credentials to be a viable candidate for the Hart Memorial Trophy as the league’s most valuable player.
It’s time for another roundtable as our staff analyzes his credentials and evaluates the competition around the Blueshirts’ franchise goalie.
Don’t agree with our takes? Feel free to send us your opinion in the comments.
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John Minchillo/Associated Press
Winning the Hart Trophy as a netminder is hard. So hard, in fact, that only one goalie has taken it home during the salary-cap era: Carey Price in 2014-15.
Only eight winners in the award’s 97-year history have been goalies. And only four of those have done it during the modern era, which began in 1967. Suffice it to say, a goalie has to have a special campaign to be considered.
So far in 2021-22, Shesterkin is doing just that.
The GSAx stat allows us to project how many goals a netminder would generally give up based on the quality of shots they face on a nightly basis. Among goalies who have appeared in at least 30 contests, Shesterkin’s GSAx of 31.1 ranks first, according to MoneyPuck.com.
Frederik Andersen of the Carolina Hurricanes is the only other netminder who has a number that is above 30. No one else is above 20.
The argument could be made that if Shesterkin is worthy of being a Hart finalist, then Andersen should be too. But Andersen has the league’s sixth-most effective offense (in goals per game) playing in front of him. Shesterkin has the 20th.
New York probably wouldn’t be a playoff team without the stellar play of its netminder. The Blueshirts have around 10 more points than they would without their 26-year-old backstop, according to the GSVA model that Dom Luszczyszyn has championed at The Athletic.
Dock the Rangers 10 points in the Eastern Conference, and they would be in line with the Columbus Blue Jackets and Detroit Red Wings. Put another way: They would be alongside two teams that are committed to rebuilding or reloading.
Shesterkin has pushed a team few pundits saw as a playoff squad into contention to make the postseason. New York’s rebuild appears to be well ahead of schedule. Some are calling the goalie’s work historic.
If that isn’t worthy of Hart consideration, what is?
—Franklin Steele
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Icon Sportswire/Getty Images
Few players have been more valuable than Shesterkin this season. Without the 26-year-old’s stellar goaltending, the Rangers wouldn’t be third in the Metropolitan Division.
Shesterkin showed considerable promise during his first two seasons. Now, he’s emerged as an elite performer who is also making a strong case for the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top netminder.
He could be overshadowed in the Hart voting by scoring superstars such as the Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews and the Washington Capitals’ Alex Ovechkin.
Still, Shesterkin shouldn’t be overlooked.
The stats speak for themselves. Shesterkin leads all starters with a .941 save percentage. His 1.95 GAA is tied with that of the Boston Bruins’ Jeremy Swayman as the league’s best. He’s also tied for sixth in wins (25) and shutouts (three).
According to Sportsbook Review’s Scott Cullen, the Rangers have controlled only 45.1 percent of five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempts, ranking 31st overall. Thanks to Shesterkin’s goaltending, however, they are the only team with a ranking below 20th in that category that is in position to make the playoffs.
Cullen noted the three goaltenders to win the Hart over the past 50 years (Dominik Hasek, Jose Theodore and Carey Price) had heavier workloads than that Shesterkin is projected finish with, as the Russian was sidelined in December by a lower-body injury and COVID-19 protocols.
The Rangers do have several stars, including forwards Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad and defending Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Adam Fox. They will only improve over time given their depth of promising young players.
Nevertheless, Shesterkin has been their MVP all season.
—Lyle Richardson
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John Minchillo/Associated Press
First things first. In no way am I suggesting, or should anyone suggest, that Igor Shesterkin is not having a terrific season.
A sub-2.00 GAA. A plus-.940 save percentage. A trio of shutouts. And a team locked into a prime playoff spot.
Put all those together, and if the question were, “Is he the probable Vezina winner?,” then the answer would be a clear “Yes.”
But this is an MVP question. And Shesterkin is a goalie. And when it comes to the Hart Trophy, it’s different for goalies.
If you’re competing for an award against point-per-game forwards or 25-plus-minute defensemen, you better have numbers that leap off the page. Numbers that are so much better than those of other players at your position that it would be impossible to not look your direction.
Think Dominik Hasek, for example. When he was in his prime with the barely better than average Buffalo Sabres, the Dominator was so far ahead of his contemporaries that it appeared he was playing a different game. And he elevated those teams to levels they never would have reached even with the league’s next-best goalie.
No offense to Shesterkin, but that’s not what he’s doing.
He ought to win the Vezina, sure. But to suggest the Rangers wouldn’t also win with a goalie on the level of Marc-Andre Fleury, Frederik Andersen or Jacob Markstrom is a big reach.
That’s the reach you would have to make to give Shesterkin a Hart vote. And that’s why he wouldn’t get mine.
—Lyle Fitzsimmons
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