Baker Mayfield Can’t Fail Again After Browns Trade for Amari Cooper

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The NFL offseason continues to see star-level talent find new homes. On Saturday, the Cleveland Browns acquired 27-year old star receiver Amari Cooper from the Dallas Cowboys. Cleveland inherited Cooper’s remaining three-year, $60 million deal in exchange for a 2022 fifth-round pick and a sixth-round pick swap with the Cowboys.

The trade for Cooper immediately filled the Browns’ biggest need after seeing the position fall apart alongside the team’s 2021 season. Few teams were willing to take on Cooper’s exorbitant salary when he seemed primed to be released, but Cleveland’s dire need to provide quarterback Baker Mayfield with sufficient weapons spurred the move. 

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Make no mistake: Mayfield can’t fail again in 2022 after the Browns acquired Cooper and are set to further revamp the receiver room.

The former No. 1 overall pick has had a rollercoaster career thus far. His rookie season was incredibly electric as he played with needed gusto. His play led to offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens’ promotion to head coach, and the team loaded up to take advantage of momentum by acquiring Kareem Hunt and Odell Beckham Jr.

But the team fell flat and Mayfield looked like a different quarterback. He no longer benefitted from the unsustainably high contested catch rate that he did as a rookie, and the confidence that led to those attempts was gone as his interception rate grew. Something changed with Mayfield’s demeanor.

Most of his advanced stats remained steady despite his raw numbers dropping considerably. His play against pressure, air yards, and accuracy were all consistent. He was simply failing the eye test.

This led to Cleveland’s quick firing of Kitchens and hiring of Kevin Stefanski. The 2020 NFL Head Coach of the Year immediately put Mayfield into the Kirk Cousins rehabilitation model to reduce the workload for the quarterback. The results took almost half the 2020 season to fully realize themselves as Mayfield needed to improve his individual play, but Mayfield saw an increase in efficiency. 

Mayfield’s air yards per completion rose from 6.3 to 7.2 and the offense was less reliant on yards after the catch. His accuracy improved as his on-target percentage rose 4.2 percent and he had 12 less batted balls. He simply was helping the offense more by executing.

Despite the success and promise after a playoff win, Browns general manager Andrew Berry and company opted to not approach Mayfield with a contract extension. The Browns, who hadn’t won a playoff game in 18 years, still weren’t sold enough on Mayfield’s long-term prospects to even offer a deal. They still needed to see more in 2021.

2021 was supposed to be another leap year from talented game manager to a swagged-out, but efficient, version of Baker. Combining his rookie year’s confidence with 2020’s efficiency, then adding a healthy Beckham and group of young receivers should’ve made everything easier. That, however, was not the case in 2021.

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Injuries played a part in the equation. Mayfield suffered a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder in mid-September, and then re-injured the shoulder on Oct. 17 against the Cardinals. The injury was severe enough to cause a complete breakdown in his accuracy.

The numbers reflect Mayfield’s struggles throwing accurate passes and were also a byproduct of his issues reading defenses. His air yards per completion dropped back from 7.2 to his rookie rate of 6.5 yards, and yards per-catch per completion grew as he opted for less aggressive throws. His bad throw percentage swelled to a career high 20.9 percent, and on-target rate dropped to 73.6.

For reference, his bad throw rate was third, wedged between rookies Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence. His on-target rate 27th, lower than Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz. He had the sixth-worst bad throw rate and 28th-ranked on-target percentage in 2020 though, so it’s not as if Mayfield has ever been a certifiably good quarterback by these measures.

Much of the blame amongst Cleveland fans has gone towards Beckham and Mayfield’s injuries. Some of that is fair, as Beckham had his own share of dropped passes, crucial injuries that zapped some of his speed and a clear disconnect with Mayfield that can’t fully be explained. 

Clearly though, Beckham still had enough playmaking to help propel the Rams to a Super Bowl win after he joined the team in the midseason and contributed 48 receptions, 593 yards, and seven touchdowns in just 12 games with Los Angeles. 

Seeing Beckham’s success outside of Cleveland only adds to the importance of Mayfield’s development in 2022. The bar for Super Bowl-caliber quarterback play has risen in the AFC in particular as Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert own the conference. If Mayfield can’t get Cooper back to his Pro Bowl levels, that would make three Pro Bowl-caliber receivers saw their careers almost die in Cleveland.

Jarvis Landry, another major signing made to help Mayfield, has also seen his production dip significantly as Mayfield’s inconsistencies were exposed. Landry will likely be released into free agency if he doesn’t take a pay cut after his 2021 production closely resembled his rookie year. 

Stefanski is an extremely good offensive coach, even if he’s not perfect. Kirk Cousins, who is not elite but one of the most consistent performers every year, has averaged a 68.3 percent completion rate, 4,097 yards, 31 touchdowns, and nine interceptions per-year in Stefanski’s offense—or one deeply influenced by him—over the last four years.

Each of those marks except the interception total would represent a career-high for Mayfield, and it’s not close. And if Cousins isn’t enough to guide a team to a Super Bowl win, then the best iteration of Mayfield we’ve seen is far from that level.

If the Browns are unable to trade for Deshaun Watson, Cousins or Derek Carr and stick with Mayfield in 2022, he can’t fail again. Cooper will likely be joined by another receiver acquired in the first two rounds of the draft, since the Browns need speed. 

The Browns are hoping Cooper’s legendary route-running, versatility to play inside and outside and overall physicality are a better fit than Beckham was for Mayfield. Acquiring him for a late-round pick was a no-brainer, but they also will overpay in terms of salary for a veteran who was the clear No. 2 in a top passing offense last year. 

The fact remains that Mayfield and Stefanski have to make this work in 2022, or else Mayfield will be gone and this regime will suddenly be on the hot seat. Things change that fast in the NFL. 

All stats were provided by pro-football-reference.com.