Belmont Stakes Picks 2021: Examining Latest Vegas Predictions and Odds

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Essential Quality had never lost through five career races, so it wasn’t a surprise when the colt was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby in May. However, he didn’t live up to expectations, finishing fourth behind Medina Spirit, Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie.

After sitting out the Preakness Stakes, Essential Quality is set to return to action in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. And despite his Derby showing, he’s the favorite heading into this race.

But if Essential Quality is going to win, he will have to beat seven other strong horses. That includes Rombauer, who didn’t compete in the Kentucky Derby before racing to victory at the Preakness.

Here’s a look at the odds for the Belmont, followed by predictions for the top finishers.

Lineup, Odds

1. Bourbonic 15-1

2. Essential Quality 2-1

3. Rombauer 3-1

4. Hot Rod Charlie 7-2

5. France Go de Ina 30-1

6. Known Agenda 6-1

7. Rock Your World 9-2

8. Overtook 20-1

Odds via Belmont Stakes.

Predictions

It seems unlikely that Essential Quality doesn’t factor into the finish at the Belmont Stakes. He may not have been near the front much in the Kentucky Derby, but that was uncharacteristic for a horse that notched some impressive victories at races such as the Southwest Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes.

And it appears Essential Quality has been looking good while preparing to return to action at the Belmont.

“He’s a monster right now,” trainer Brad Cox said, per Marcus Hersh of Daily Racing Form. “Training great.”

If Essential Quality can get off to a better start in the Belmont than he did at Churchill Downs, then it’s possible he will stay toward the front of the field for much of the race. Don’t be surprised if that happens, either, as the colt could break well from the No. 2 post.

However, Essential Quality will be starting alongside his biggest competition. Rombauer will break from the No. 3 post as he looks to go 2-for-2 in Triple Crown events this year. He impressed at the Preakness, overtaking the two leaders in the final stretch of the race to earn the victory.

One notable change for Rombauer will be his jockey. Flavien Prat raced the colt to victory in the Preakness, but he had already agreed to ride Hot Rod Charlie in the Belmont. That means Rombauer will now be ridden by John Velazquez, who owns six career wins at Triple Crown events (four in the Derby and two in the Belmont).

When Velazquez first rode Rombauer late in May, trainer Michael McCarthy liked how the colt performed.

“It seemed like he was well in hand at all times,” McCarthy said, per the Paulick Report. “Johnny asked him to gallop out a little bit going underneath the wire and the horse seemed to respond nicely. I’m very happy with what I saw.”

With Essential Quality and Rombauer both expected to perform well at the Belmont, it won’t be shocking to see them among the leaders in the final stretch. However, which of the two will come out on top?

The prediction here is that Rombauer shows the same impressive closing ability he did at the Preakness. And although he may trail Essential Quality late, he will make the necessary move to get past him and again race to victory.

Prediction: 1. Rombauer; 2. Essential Quality; 3. Known Agenda.