Big Step Forward from QB Mac Jones Key to Patriots Success in 2022

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By many measurements, Mac Jones of the New England Patriots
had a successful rookie season. After being drafted 15th overall in the 2021
draft, Jones wound up starting all 17 games for the Pats, winning 10, guiding
New England to the playoffs and making the Pro Bowl.

However, the season ended in inglorious fashion, followed by
an offseason of change and tumult in Beantown. Given the expectations for
success that dominating the AFC for two decades have created in New England,
the pressure is on the Patriots to do more than have a cup of coffee in
the postseason in 2022. This team is supposed to make some hay in the playoffs.

For that to happen, Jones is going to need to take a sizable
step forward in his second season. And while the Patriots brought in a new top
target for Jones in the passing game, there are also factors that aren’t going
to make progress in 2022 any easier.

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Jones and the Patriots had regular-season success as a team
last year, but from a statistical standpoint, the former Alabama star didn’t play as well as that Pro Bowl nod might indicate. Jones’
completion percentage (67.6) ranked eighth in the league. But he was 13th in
passing yards, 14th in touchdown passes and yards per attempt, 18th in air yards per
attempt, 19th in yards per completion, 17th in passing yards per
game, 15th in passer rating and 16th in QBR. Jones also tied for the ninth-most interceptions in the league with 13.

For a rookie, those numbers aren’t bad. But while the
Patriots went 10-7, the team was a so-so 14th in the league in passing. Jones was essentially a game manager in his first season. And
while that was good enough to get the Pats into the postseason tournament, New
England was hopelessly outmatched offensively against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Wild Card Round.

Per ESPN’s Mike Reiss, Jones’ numbers in the vertical passing game also left something
to be desired. Of Jones’ pass attempts thrown at least 20
yards downfield last season, 41 percent were over- or underthrown—5 percent over the
league average. Jones checked in 24th in the NFL with a 38.8 percent completion rate
on vertical routes in 2021, per NFL Next Gen Stats. His completion
percentage above expectation on those throws was minus-4.5 percent (26th out of 31
qualified QBs).

For the Patriots to take the next step, the team has to
become more dangerous down the field—a fact Jones himself is aware of.

“We want to be able to do whatever we want to do at any
given time, whether that’s a run, pass, play-action—short, medium, or long.
We’re trying to be able to have a little bit of variety,” he said.

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To his credit, according to Reiss, Jones was sharp on
downfield routes in minicamp. But there’s a difference between throwing against
air in shorts and shells and fitting passes into tight windows in live game
action.

The Patriots spent big on upgrading the weapons at Jones’ disposal
a year ago, but while tight end Hunter Henry logged nine touchdowns, wide
receivers Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne were relative disappointments. Neither
wideout had more than 800 receiving yards, and the pair combined for fewer
touchdowns than Henry had by himself. Tight end Jonnu Smith also failed to live up to his four-year, $50 million contract, managing just 28 catches, 294 receiving yards and a single touchdown after crossing the goal line a career-high eight times in 2020.

The Patriots attempted once again to bolster the wideout
corps this offseason, swinging a trade with the Miami Dolphins that brought veteran
wide receiver DeVante Parker to town. Per Henry
McKenna of Patriots Wire, Parker said he has been impressed by what he’s
seen from Jones so far on the practice field.

“He’s a leader,” Parker said. “He’s a young guy, but he’s
vocal as a leader. That’s what this team needs. And even though I’ve just been
out here a few weeks, I still see it.”

Theoretically, Parker offers Jones something he didn’t have last
year: a true No. 1 receiver. In 2019, the 29-year-old posted an impressive
72/1,202/9 line with the Dolphins. But that big year was the only 1,000-yard
season of Parker’s seven-year NFL career, he has missed nine games in the two seasons
since, and last year Parker posted his lowest reception (40) and yardage (515)
totals since 2018.

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Long story short, Parker is no sure bet. And he’s not the
only uncertainty Jones will have to overcome.

After a decade as offensive coordinator for the Patriots,
Josh McDaniels left the team to become the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders.
Somewhat puzzlingly, the Patriots did not replace him. It’s believed
that either Senior Football Advisor Matt Patricia or offensive assistant Joe
Judge will call the plays in 2022, but in true Bill Belichick fashion, the head
coach didn’t rule out doing the job himself.

“I’ve called them and I haven’t called them,”
Belichick told reporters. “Other people have called them and haven’t called
them. We’ll see.”

Thanks for clearing that up, Bill.

Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers lauded the mastery
of the “new” offense that Jones has already displayed.

“Has he taken control of the offense? That’s a capital yes,
exclamation mark, exclamation mark,” Meyers told reporters. “He’s the real deal. We’re
all trying to catch up what’s in his mind, his vision.”

For his part, new scheme and terminology or not, Jones said it’s still the same old game.

“At the end of the day football is football,” Jones told reporters. “Offensive football there is only so much you can do. You can’t
recreate the wheel with every different system. You either run it or you throw
it. It’s really that simple. And that’s pretty much all there is to it.”

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No one should question Jones’ ability to pick up a new
scheme—from all indications, he’s a highly intelligent young signal-caller who
seemed to acclimate to McDaniels’ offense a year ago with relative ease. But
even if whoever’s new offense in New England is similar to the one he already knows,
instead of taking play calls from one of the most highly regarded offensive
minds in the league, in 2022 he will be doing so from either an assistant with
exponentially more experience on defense than offense (Patricia), a special
teams coach with very limited offensive experience (Judge) or a man known a
lot more for crafting defensive game plans than offensive ones (Belichick).

Bill Belichick is arguably the best head coach the NFL has
ever known. But he isn’t going to suddenly become Bill Walsh.

It’s not all doom and gloom and questions at receiver and
potential play-calling issues. The Patriots fielded a top-10 offensive line
last year, per Sam Monson of Pro
Football Focus, and while the team traded guard Shaq Mason, it hopes to have found a readymade replacement in first-round pick Cole Strange. The Pats
also fielded the eighth-best ground game in the league, with running backs Damien
Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson combining for 1,535 yards.

Running to set up the pass may be old school, but it can
still be effective. However, it only goes so far. Teams fall behind. Or run
into an offense they have little to no success stopping.

When that happened to the Patriots in 2021 (like in the
playoff loss to the Bills), the team was in big trouble—because Jones and the
passing attack just couldn’t keep up.

Now, it’s possible that Jones can overcome these obstacles.
That Parker will turn back the clock and sail past 1,000 yards. That the
offense won’t miss a beat with a new coach at the helm. That Jones will improve
his vertical throws and guide New England back to the postseason and deep into
it.

But the odds do not appear in his favor. Parker has had one
big year out of seven. Judge and Patricia are complete unknowns as
play-callers.

And if so-so weaponry and staid play-calling prove to be too
much of a detriment and Jones can’t make substantial headway as a player in
his second season, then in a loaded AFC the Pats probably won’t make the
playoffs at all.