Bowl Predictions 2021: Updated Playoff CFP Projections Heading Into Week 10

Butch Dill/Associated Press

With each passing week, more teams drop out of the College Football Playoff picture, while others bolster their resumes. 

It’s a murky pool of teams at this point, but below, we tried to sort through the uncertainty, projecting the four favorites to reach the CPF at this juncture of the season. 

Projected Playoff Teams

1. Georgia 

At this point, Georgia seems like a virtual lock to reach the College Football Playoff, barring an epic meltdown. They have remaining games against Missouri, Tennessee, Charleston Southern and Georgia Tech, all likely wins. 

At that point, a resume that includes wins over Clemson, Arkansas, Auburn and Kentucky would likely be enough to get the Bulldogs into the Playoff, even if they lose in the SEC Title Game. 

And the nation’s stingiest defense will make the Bulldogs favored against Alabama, their likely opponents in that game. But it’s hard to imagine the Playoff Committee keeping a one-loss Bulldogs team out even if they lose. 

2. Michigan State

The Big Ten is a pretty fascinating conference at the moment. Its three best teams—Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan, in whatever order you like—are in the East Division, meaning whichever of those teams reaches the Conference Championship Game is going to be favored to win it.

Of those three teams, only the Spartans are currently undefeated, and also hold the best win of the bunch after knocking off Michigan. That, in turn, put the Wolverines chances of winning the Big Ten in serious trouble.

So a Nov. 20 meeting between Michigan State and Ohio State very well may be the de facto decider for the conference title, and in turn, the decider for which Big Ten team reaches the CFP. After Saturday’s win over Michigan, the undefeated Spartans feel like the frontrunners.

3. Alabama

Doesn’t it just feel inevitable that the Crimson Tide will work their way into the CFP?

It will likely take a win in the SEC Championship against Georgia to pull it off, but are you going to bet against Nick Saban in a big game?

Didn’t think so.

4. Cincinnati

The Bearcats have a signature win (Notre Dame) and the chance to seriously bolster their resume when they face SMU on Nov. 20. 

They also have one of the best defenses in the country, giving up just 14.3 points per game. Only Georgia (6.6 PPG, an absurd number) is giving up less. 

If the Bearcats run the table, it’s going to be very hard to keep them out. 

Just Missing Out

Oklahoma

If the Sooners run the table, they’re in. But can they do so against Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State after their bye next week? 

It’s a brutal stretch. Oklahoma has been shaky enough that it’s easy to see them losing at least one of those games.

Oregon

The win over Ohio State was big time. The loss to Stanford, currently 3-5, was not. Even if they run the table—no easy task, with Notre Dame awaiting on Nov. 27—that loss will be tough to overcome.

Notre Dame

Speaking of Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish aren’t going to get the nod over Cincinnati, seeing as they lost to them early in the season. And if Notre Dame’s best win ends up being over Oregon, it will be tough to catapult them over an Alabama team that, in this scenario, won the SEC or over a Georgia team whose lone loss would be to the Crimson Tide.

Michigan

Saturday’s loss to Michigan State will make it very difficult for the Wolverines to even reach the Big Ten Title Game. Hard to imagine the Committee giving them a CFP berth if they don’t.