Bowl Projections 2021: Predictions for Top Games to Watch

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The 2021 college football season has been characterized by a sense of parity that should create an interesting slate of bowl games come December and January. 

Sure, Georgia has run roughshod over their entire schedule and Cincinnati has maintained an undefeated record. But they remain the only unbeaten teams in the playoff hunt. 

Ohio State will likely join them in the four-team field, but the Buckeyes are a good example of the chaos that has ensued this season. In September, they were beaten by an Oregon team that outrushed them 269-128. Fast-forward to this week, and they held Kenneth Walker III and the Michigan State Spartans to 66 yards on the ground. 

Meanwhile, the Ducks team that looked so good against Ohio State took a 38-7 drubbing from Utah. 

And so the cycle continues. 

It’s all heading toward some interesting decisions for the playoff selection committee and a schedule of bowl games that are going to be tough to predict. 

Let’s take a look at how the playoffs, the New Year’s Six and other major bowls could shake out. 

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Orange Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State

Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati

It’s shaping up to be an interesting race for the four playoff spots, and the selection committee is going to be faced with some interesting questions. 

Georgia has established itself as the No. 1 team in the nation. Its undefeated record combined with playing in the SEC and the dominant defense it has played throughout the year has them a lock to make the College Football Playoff even if they lost the SEC Championship Game. 

The Bulldogs will face a tough test from Alabama, which is the best offense they’ve seen this season, but they should be favored in the matchup and would lock up the top seed with a win. 

Ohio State is peaking at the right time. Although it has a loss to Oregon on its ledger, the head-to-head question has been quashed with the Ducks losing to Utah and the Buckeyes owning a 56-7 win over a Michigan State team the committee ranked in the top 10. These factors are enough to have Ryan Day’s team in the No. 2 spot provided it beats Michigan and wins the Big Ten title game. 

The real intrigue starts with the No. 3 and No. 4 spots. If Cincinnati wins out, it’s going to have a hard time denying the Bearcats entry. The committee hasn’t shown Group of Five teams much love in the past, but it has already ranked them high enough to believe they will get in. 

So the fourth and final spot is the one that will be up for debate. Notre Dame is likely to win out when it faces Stanford to close out the season. Oklahoma State is playing in top form right now and still has Oklahoma and a Big 12 title game left to boost its record. 

Alabama will likely be in consideration, but it is potentially going to be coming off a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. 

In that hypothetical, the Cowboys will have the best resume and receive the nod. 

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Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Utah

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Baylor

Peach Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh

Fiesta Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Wake Forest

                 

The Rose Bowl could be getting some new blood. Since joining the Pac-12 in 2010, Utah has never represented the conference in the traditional Pac-12 vs. Big Ten game. Its one-sided win over Oregon has the team in the driver’s seat to break that streak, though. 

The Utes could be up against a name that’s familiar with Pasadena, though. Michigan has the most Big Ten appearances in the game although it hasn’t played in it since 2007. The Wolverines will have a strong case to represent the conference. 

Even with a loss to Ohio State, they are sitting at 10-1 with their lone loss coming by four points on the road to Michigan State. If Ohio State beats Michigan they will have a 10-2 record and be an appealing pick for the bowl given the lengthy absence from the game and the fanbase will travel well. 

Assuming the committee will not be interested in seeing a Georgia-Alabama rematch in the playoffs, the Crimson Tide could be sent to the Sugar Bowl. It’s a rare sight to see Alabama in a non-playoff matchup, as it has only missed the tourney once since its inception. 

That was 2020 when the Tide beat Michigan 35-16 in the Citrus Bowl. Bryce Young and Co. would be looking to make a similar statement against a Baylor team that ruined their shot at a playoff berth with a 30-28 upset loss to TCU but has since reeled off impressive wins over Oklahoma and Kansas State where the defense held both teams to two scores. 

If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, it will create a situation where the committee has to decide between Baylor and the Sooners, and the Bears have the advantage of a head-to-head win and better play recently. 

Notre Dame is only a partial member of the ACC, but it could be getting a de facto ACC championship in the Peach Bowl. It could be an at-large selection while the usual Group of Five spot could go to Cincinnati in the playoff. 

That would allow the committee to put the part-time ACC team that went unbeaten in the conference to play the champion, which will either be Wake Forest or Pitt. For now, let’s go with Kenny Pickett and the Panthers. 

Ole Miss star Matt Corral is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. The Wake Forest offense is fourth in the nation in points per game at 43.1. A matchup between the Rebels and the Demon Deacons would be all kinds of fun, and the scoreboard operator would get a workout. 

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Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. Texas A&M

Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Kentucky

Gator Bowl: NC State vs. Arkansas

Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Oregon

Independence Bowl: BYU vs. UTSA

            

In the playoff era, the other bowls have lost some of their luster, but there’s still some good football to watch leading up to the big games. 

A possible matchup that could take place would be an Independence Bowl matchup between BYU and UTSA. The current system doesn’t give a team such as the Road Runners the chance to compete on the biggest stage, but a game against a nationally known program like BYU would be a great opportunity. 

UTSA running back Sincere McCormick is ninth in the nation in yards per game, and the team has rode his running to an unbeaten record and the highest ranking in school history. 

The Cougars, meanwhile, are sitting at 9-2 with a game against USC that could move their record against Pac-12 schools to 5-0. In other words, they can play with the big boys and would be a great test for UTSA. 

Outside of that matchup, you still have plenty of good games between Power Five teams that didn’t quite have the resumes to get into the New Year’s Six. 

That would include teams such as Michigan State, which will look to end the season on a high note after taking a beating from Ohio State. Oklahoma could be looking at a bit of a collapse down the stretch with losses to Baylor and Oklahoma State and Oregon.