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With the Super Bowl now in the rearview mirror and March Madness still weeks away, this would normally be the time of year when talk of the upcoming MLB season starts to heat up. Alas, the lockout rages on with no end in sight.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t still look ahead to how the 2022 season might shake out once MLB and the MLBPA put an end to their impasse.
Here, we’ll look at the current betting odds for each team to be crowned division champion during the upcoming season. For each division, we’ve provided our thoughts on the safest bet, the bet to avoid, and a value play if you’re looking for a dark horse.
This is all subject to change once the offseason resumes and the remaining free agents find a home. But for now, let this serve as a preview of sorts for the season to come.
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Current Odds
New York Yankees: +185
Toronto Blue Jays: +190
Tampa Bay Rays: +300
Boston Red Sox: +550
Baltimore Orioles: +15000
The Yankees have not made any notable additions yet this offseason, but a healthy Luis Severino in the starting rotation and a full year of Joey Gallo in the middle of the lineup still moves the needle for a team that won 92 games last season.
Sorting out the left side of the infield remains a priority for the Yankees. While Carlos Correa and Trevor Story are the buzzworthy names, a short-term stopgap might be the more logical approach. A one-year deal for someone like Andrelton Simmons or Jose Iglesias could effectively bridge the gap to Anthony Volpe.
Meanwhile, the Rays seem more likely to subtract than add, the Blue Jays have yet to address the losses of Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray, and the Red Sox have added only Rich Hill and Michael Wacha to a pitching staff that ranked 15th in the majors with a 4.26 ERA.
There is still time for each of those teams to stake their claim to the role of division favorite, but as things stand right now, the Yankees look like the team to beat.
Safe Bet: Yankees +185
Avoid: Blue Jays +190
Value Pick: Rays +300
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Current Odds
Chicago White Sox: -200
Detroit Tigers: +700
Minnesota Twins: +750
Cleveland Guardians: +850
Kansas City Royals: +1000
The Chicago White Sox were the only team in the AL Central to finish above .500 last year en route to a 13-game lead in the standings. With Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease back to anchor the starting rotation, they are well-equipped to weather the loss of Carlos Rodon, and the lineup should be even better than a year ago with full seasons from Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez.
With that said, expect the up-and-coming teams in this division to make things more difficult.
The Tigers are ready to make a push after signing Javier Baez (six years, $140 million) and Eduardo Rodriguez (five years, $77 million) in free agency, especially with top prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene also knocking on the door.
The Guardians still have one of baseball’s best pitching staffs, the Twins are just a year removed from winning back-to-back division titles, and even the Royals are poised for an influx of top prospect talent with Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez all ready to make a splash.
The White Sox are the clear favorites to win the AL Central, but betting the field is tempting here given the odds of the other four teams.
Safe Bet: White Sox -200
Avoid: Twins +750
Value Pick: Guardians +850
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Current Odds
Houston Astros: -145
Los Angeles Angels: +380
Seattle Mariners: +600
Oakland Athletics: +700
Texas Rangers: +2500
The Astros reached the ALCS after Gerrit Cole departed in free agency in 2020, and they made it to the World Series last year after George Springer jumped ship during the 2021 offseason. That makes it hard to bet against them surviving the potential loss of shortstop Carlos Correa once the free-agent market kicks back into gear.
They will at least need to find a short-term replacement until top prospect Jeremy Pena is ready, and a run at Trevor Story is not out of the question. But Houston has enough firepower in the lineup and pitching depth to still be the dominant force in the AL West.
Is a fresh-off-injury Noah Syndergaard and reliever-turned-starter Michael Lorenzen enough rotation help for an Angels team that ranked 22nd in the majors with a 4.78 starters’ ERA a year ago? A healthy Mike Trout helps a ton, but pitching has always been their issue.
The Athletics appear ready to sell off some big pieces, but keep an eye on a Mariners team that is hungry to snap a playoff drought that stretches back to 2001. They’ve added Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier, and guys like Jarred Kelenic, Logan Gilbert and top prospect Julio Rodriguez are another year older. This could be their year if the Astros falter.
Safe Bet: Astros -145
Avoid: Angels +380
Value Pick: Mariners +600
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Jacob deGromChristian Petersen/Getty Images
Current Odds
New York Mets: +140
Atlanta Braves: +150
Philadelphia Phillies: +500
Miami Marlins: +1000
Washington Nationals: +3500
The Mets added Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar this offseason, and Jacob deGrom will hopefully be back to 100 percent. However, it’s still hard to call them a safe pick after they’ve consistently found ways to fall short of expectations in recent years.
Maybe it’s an overcorrection after being burned in the past, but I’m still not ready to call them the favorites in the NL East.
The Braves have some work to do restocking the shelves after last year’s World Series title, starting with sorting out the Freddie Freeman situation, but that makes now the perfect time to grab them at +150. They could easily jump back to the top of the odds list by re-signing Freeman and bringing back one or more of their trio of trade-deadline pickups—Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario and Joc Pederson.
The Phillies are still essentially the same team they were a year ago. The Marlins might still be a year or two away as they try to build an offense that can support their terrific young pitching staff. And the Nationals are only beginning what could be a long rebuild.
Safe Bet: Braves +150
Avoid: Mets +140
Value Pick: Marlins +1000
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Corbin BurnesJohn Fisher/Getty Images
Current Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -125
St. Louis Cardinals: +205
Cincinnati Reds: +700
Chicago Cubs: +1200
Pittsburgh Pirates: +5000
As long as Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta are anchoring their rotation, the Brewers are going to be relevant players in the NL Central. However, the only real move they’ve made offensively is swapping out Avisail Garcia (117 OPS+, 29 HR) for Hunter Renfroe (112 OPS+, 31 HR) in right field.
That won’t cut it for a team that ranked 20th in OPS (.713) and 12th in runs scored (738) last year before getting shut out twice in the NLDS by the Atlanta Braves. Pitching will only carry them so far, and each of their top starters is coming off a career year.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals finished 2021 with a flourish, going 22-7 in September to claw their way into a wild-card berth while young players like Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman all finished strong.
With the Reds selling, the Cubs retooling and the Pirates still years away from relevance, the NL Central looks like a two-horse race. As the rosters currently stand, the Cardinals are a much better bet at +205 than the Brewers are at -125.
Safe Bet: Cardinals +205
Avoid: Brewers -125
Value Pick: Reds +700
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Icon Sportswire/Getty Images
Current Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers: -135
San Diego Padres: +225
San Francisco Giants: +400
Colorado Rockies: +7500
Arizona Diamondbacks: +10000
Even with Max Scherzer and Corey Seager signing elsewhere and Clayton Kershaw still in free-agency limbo, the Dodgers are the most stacked team in an NL West loaded with star power. They could use one more starter to join Walker Buehler and Julio Urias atop the rotation, but there’s enough pitching depth top-to-bottom for them to do fine without another flashy addition.
Meanwhile, an extremely talented Padres team has a new manager in Bob Melvin. That could be exactly what the clubhouse needs to jump-start things after a disappointing 2021.
With a healthy Mike Clevinger and Japanese League standout Nick Martinez joining the starting rotation, the Padres’ biggest weakness from a year ago now looks like a clear strength.
Did the Giants catch lightning in a bottle in 2021? With Buster Posey retiring, Kevin Gausman replaced by Alex Cobb and Kris Bryant expected to depart in free agency, they might take a step back. But with a solid core in place and a stacked farm system, the Giants’ future is still extremely bright.
If you’re looking to get wild, the D-backs are a far better bet at +10000 than the Rockies are at +7500.
Safe Bet: Dodgers -135
Avoid: Rockies +7500
Value Pick: Giants +400
Stats via Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Odds via DraftKings.
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