AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack
The fantasy landscape has shifted with another quarterback on the move, though just how much depends on how much you like Carson Wentz.
The Washington Commanders found their 2022 starter by agreeing to acquire Wentz from the Indianapolis Colts.
Per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the Colts will receive a 2022 third-round draft pick and a conditional 2023 third-round draft pick that can bump up to a second with incentives.
Even though Wentz isn’t particularly thrilling in real life, especially based on how he ended last season, he has been a reliable fantasy performer throughout his career.
The 29-year-old finished 14th among all quarterbacks in points in PPR leagues in 2021 (265.02). He was in the same area as Ryan Tannehill (282.36) and Derek Carr (270.96).
By comparison, Taylor Heinicke, who started 15 games for Washington last season, was 19th in fantasy points by a quarterback (236.86).
The biggest beneficiary of Wentz taking over at quarterback is Terry McLaurin. The Ohio State alum has proved to be quarterback-proof through his first three seasons. He has averaged 119 targets, 74 receptions, 1,030 yards and five touchdowns from 2019 to ’21.
As flawed as Wentz is, he’s an upgrade over Heinicke, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Garrett Gilbert, Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, Case Keenum and Colt McCoy. Those are the eight quarterbacks who have started at least one game for Washington since McLaurin’s rookie season.
McLaurin had 77 catches, 1,053 yards and five touchdowns last season. He has finished in the top 25 among wide receivers in fantasy points in each of the past three years.
Wentz threw for 3,563 yards and 27 touchdowns for the Colts last season. No Washington quarterback has hit those marks since Kirk Cousins in 2017 (4,093 passing yards, 27 touchdowns).
Antonio Gibson’s value doesn’t figure to change much. He has scored 21 touchdowns combined in the past two seasons and set a career high with 1,331 yards on 300 touches in 2021.
There doesn’t figure to be much of a difference in passing attempts between Washington’s quarterbacks and Wentz. The Commanders attempted 550 passes in 2021; Wentz threw the ball 516 times in 17 starts for the Colts.
Gibson ranked in the top five for Washington in targets (52), receptions (42) and receiving yards (294). Those numbers are in line with what Jonathan Taylor did as a receiver for the Colts (51 targets, 40 receptions, 360 yards).
Unless the Commanders find a reliable No. 2 pass-catching option on the outside with McLaurin, Gibson is going to see a healthy number of targets.
Curtis Samuel might become that guy, but he has a lot to prove in 2022 after being limited to five games due to groin and hamstring injuries.
With Ricky Seals-Jones set to become a free agent, Logan Thomas is poised to become the Commanders’ No. 1 tight end. He appeared in only six games in 2021 due to knee and hamstring issues.
Thomas showed promise two years ago with 110 targets, 72 receptions, 670 yards and six touchdowns. He was the No. 7 tight end in fantasy during the 2020 season.
It’s hard to bet on Thomas coming close to those numbers again. He’s going to turn 31 on July 1 and has never eclipsed 200 receiving yards in any other season.
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