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Just before the NBA tipped off its All-Star Game and 75th anniversary celebration, TNT’s Allie LaForce shared a report that begs the question: Why does this keep happening to Chris Paul?
The results of CP3’s recent MRI revealed a right thumb avulsion fracture that will be evaluated in six to eight weeks.
An optimistic read of the situation would have CP3 back in time for the playoffs, but it’s impossible to say if that will happen right now.
His Phoenix Suns are currently 6.5 games up on the second-place Golden State Warriors. With about a quarter of the season to go, they should be able to hold that first-place position, but this is another potential legacy-altering injury for Paul.
Fair or not, the bulk of discussions on a player’s spot in NBA history begins and ends with the number of rings he’s won. In many eyes, it doesn’t matter what’s been accomplished if a championship is never won.
John Stockton is first all time (by a mile) in both career assists and career steals. He’s ninth all time in career box plus/minus (BPM “…is a basketball box score-based metric that estimates a basketball player’s contribution to the team when that player is on the court,” according to Basketball Reference). But not having a title keeps him out of any discussions for top 10-15 status.
In The Athletic’s recent publication of its top 75 players of all time, Stockton came in at 25th. Somehow, that feels fair, and now CP3 is potentially headed down that same road.
In 2021, Paul overcame a shoulder injury in the first round of the playoffs to make it to the Finals for the first time in his career. His team was up 2-0 before losing four straight to the Milwaukee Bucks. For a moment, it felt like he may have overcome years of tragically bad luck.
And after starting 2021-22 with a juggernaut-like 48-10 record, it felt like that bad luck was on the ropes again. But not having a fully healthy Paul for the 2022 postseason would make it tough to win the West again. Especially if his absence costs Phoenix the top seed (or two).
Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press
Right now, Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report pegs the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs as the likeliest teams to finish with the seventh or eighth playoff spots. Assuming Kawhi Leonard misses the postseason, all of those matchups feel safer for the Suns than Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks or a Denver Nuggets team that should have Jamal Murray back.
Regardless of the opponent, an early exit that feels in any way tied to Paul’s health will add this season to an already borderline tragic list.
In 2015, a hamstring injury cost CP3 two games when his Lob City Clippers faced and eventually lost to the Houston Rockets. In 2016, he broke his hand in a first-round series the Clippers wound up losing against the Portland Trail Blazers. Then, as a member of the Houston Rockets, Paul and James Harden had the dynastic Golden State Warriors on the ropes before another hamstring injury cost CP3 the final two games of a seven-game series.
For a player with a statistical resume as absurd as Paul’s, having a career highlighted by those injuries feels more than unfair.
Like Stockton, Paul is top 10 all time in career BPM. In fact, he’s sixth and trails only Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Magic Johnson and David Robinson. He’s also ninth in career playoff BPM.
His career regular-season averages of 18.2 points, 9.5 assists and 2.1 steals put him in a league of his own (no one else in league history has averaged 18-plus points, nine-plus assists and two-plus steals for a career).
If that’s not enough, here are a handful of his ranks when you combine regular and postseason numbers:
- Assists: 4th
- Steals: 5th
- Wins over replacement player: 7th
- Threes: 33rd
- Minutes: 37th
- Points: 38th
But he’s missing a ring, and he has more notable injuries than deep playoff runs. Whether any of that is CP3’s fault or not, those points will serve as the ledes in conversations about Paul’s legacy.
That is, unless, he overcomes his latest struggle with the basketball gods.
The postseason starts April 16. April 17 is exactly eight weeks from the day Paul’s broken hand was revealed.
The Grizzlies and Warriors are good enough to threaten the Suns’ top spot, but Phoenix is plus-4.2 points per 100 possessions without CP3 on the floor over the last two seasons.
Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges and the rest of a deep roster are capable of clinging to first. And several weeks without Paul might actually elevate the younger players. For two years, they’ve had one of the game’s premier playmakers as an on-court mentor. Now, they can put his lessons into practice.
And if time away from CP3 steels their nerves, the Suns might even be more ready for this year’s playoff run.
Coming back from the injury, rejoining the battle-hardened Suns and exorcising demons of postseasons past would be as close to a perfect resolution as Paul’s story could get.
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