Dak Prescott’s ‘Golden Year’ with Cowboys Destined for Disappointment

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There isn’t an NFL team that enters each and every season with loftier expectations than the Dallas Cowboys. A winning record
isn’t good enough. Neither is claiming the NFC East. It’s Super Bowl or bust.

After winning the division only to get bumped from the
postseason in the Wild Card Round last year, the Cowboys have Texas-sized aspirations in
2022 as well. But while quarterback Dak Prescott has expressed optimism
that this is “the golden year” for the franchise, that shine is
actually pyrite.

This isn’t a team that’s better than last year’s iteration.
Or one that has what it takes to beat the NFC’s best in the
postseason. As a matter of fact, it’s more likely these Cowboys will miss the
playoffs altogether than represent the NFC at Super Bowl LVII.

Prescott turned 29 on Friday, and while speaking
to reporters at training camp in Oxnard, California, the
seventh-year veteran made it clear what he wanted for his birthday.

“It will be the golden birthday,” Prescott said.
“I plan for this to be the golden year.”

To an extent, Prescott’s optimism is warranted. Dallas was a
12-win team in 2021. The Cowboys averaged 407.0 yards and 31.2
points per game last season. Both of those marks led the league. Head coach Mike
McCarthy told reporters that he thinks Prescott is capable of
leading the team to a Super Bowl.

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

“This is Dak Prescott’s offense and I think you see him
taking ownership of that because at the end of the day, defense wins
championships, but the Super Bowl is won by the quarterback. If you look at it
statistically, that’s my opinion,” McCarthy said. “That’s how I view
the journey and the vision of how you prepare your team and what your team
needs to look like. And I think he’s a guy that emulates exactly what you’re
looking for, because he’s always looking to improve in all the areas.”

For his part, Prescott said that he’s well aware that he’s
expected to lead the Cowboys on a deep playoff run this year.

“I mean, obviously knowing the quarterbacks that played
specifically for this team and knowing their legacy and the ones that we hold
at the highest standard are the ones that have Super Bowl rings,” Prescott
said. “It starts there for me, trying to fill the shoes of those guys that
have come before me and do something for this organization that hasn’t been
done in a long time.”

It’s not difficult to see where Prescott got the idea
that the only acceptable way for the season to end is in Glendale, Arizona, on
February 12. In a press conference earlier in the week, team owner Jerry
Jones made
it clear that another one-and-done trip to the playoffs isn’t going to cut
it.

Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

“Well, I need to win it. I need to win it, but I’ll be
candid with you, there’s degrees. I want to be fair to everybody
concerned,” Jones said. “We need to be in the playoffs. We need to be
viable in the playoffs for it to be a successful season.”

The Cowboys have won three Super Bowls under Jones’
ownership, but it’s been a good long while since the last one in
1995.

Over Prescott’s first six seasons as the starting quarterback,
the team has one postseason win. Dallas hasn’t made the playoffs in
back-to-back campaigns since 2006 and 2007 and hasn’t done so in consecutive
years with the same head coach since Chan Gailey in 1998 and 1999.

That’s quite a bit of history working against the Cowboys. But there are pressing issues to deal with in
2022.

The Cowboys fielded the second-ranked passing attack
last season for a few reasons. The first is Prescott, who is an excellent
starter in the prime of his career. The second was a loaded cadre
of pass-catching talent. And the third was an offensive line that Pro
Football Focus ranked as the NFL’s best.

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Prescott is still there. But thanks in large part to the
annually precarious salary-cap situation in Big D, veteran wide receiver Amari
Cooper was traded to the Cleveland Browns in what amounted to a salary dump.
Fellow wideout Cedrick Wilson Jr. signed with the Miami Dolphins in free agency. Michael Gallup is working his way back from an ACL tear and said he won’t
be ready for Week 1.

The Cowboys also lost two starters on the offensive
line in right tackle La’el Collins and left guard Connor Williams.

The Cowboys still have 23-year-old CeeDee Lamb at wideout, and they added James Washington in free agency and possess a quality tight end in Dalton
Schultz. Offensive tackle Terence Steele made 13 starts for the team last year, and Dallas used
a first-round pick on Tulsa tackle Tyler Smith.

But the Cowboys’ pass-catchers took a step backward in 2022 by just about any objective measure, and Dallas dropped a handful of spots in PFF’s
preseason offensive line rankings.

The potential problems aren’t contained to the offense. The Cowboys
have the league’s reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year (linebacker Micah
Parsons) and interceptions leader (cornerback Trevon Diggs). But for all of Diggs’
big plays in 2021, he allowed more yards
in coverage (907) than any defensive player in the NFL. Parsons led the team with 13 sacks last year,
but the second-leading pass-rusher (Randy Gregory) is now with the Denver Broncos.

Last season, the Cowboys were 19th in total
defense, 20th against the pass and 16th against the run. Thanks to a
league-leading 34 takeaways, they were seventh in points allowed, but the
odds of turnovers bailing out the defense again aren’t good.

Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

If Dallas takes a step back offensively (a real
possibility), it’s going to put that much more pressure on an average defense.
That’s a recipe for trouble.

Even if you think the Cowboys are as good on paper as last
year’s team, after the Philadelphia Eagles added multiple impact players on
both sides of the ball this offseason, the gap between the two squads has narrowed
considerably.

Per DraftKings, the Cowboys are still the favorites to win the NFC East at +135 ($100 bet wins $135), but
the Eagles are right behind them at +165. And even if the Cowboys do repeat as
division champions, those same oddsmakers gave Dallas only the fifth-best odds
to win the NFC.

This isn’t to say that the Cowboys aren’t a good football
team. Or that they won’t contend for a playoff spot. But the offense has lost
weapons and faces questions along the line. The defense isn’t bad, but it also
isn’t great. The odds of this team winning multiple playoff games just aren’t
good.

Prescott’s “golden year” isn’t going to end how he
hopes. The 2022 season will more likely than not conclude the same way 2021
did.

And for Jerry Jones and the Cowboys, that’s not nearly good
enough.

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