Dallas Cowboys Have Foolishly Left the Door Open in the Unpredictable NFC East

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It’s happening again. 

The NFC East hasn’t been decided by more than a one-game margin since 2017. It hasn’t had a repeat champion since 2004. Those unfamiliar with the NFL who merely eavesdrop on media coverage of the sport might truly believe the division’s official name is the “Wide-Open NFC East.” 

This year was supposed to be different. With star quarterback Dak Prescott healthy again, the Dallas Cowboys looked not only like a shoo-in for the division crown at midseason, but also a prime Super Bowl contender. Few would have faulted you for writing off the New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles or Washington Football Team when those three were all either 3-5 or 2-6 and the Cowboys were 6-1 at the eight-week mark. 

But since then, the Cowboys have lost two of three games, while the Eagles and Washington have each won back-to-back and the Giants can win for the third time in four tries with an upset victory over the favored but vulnerable Tampa Bay Buccaneers Monday night. 

And while there’s generally no shame in losing to the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs on the road, the fact that Prescott committed three turnovers and the offense generated zero touchdowns against a more-beatable-than-usual Chiefs team in a critical spot is extremely concerning. 

In this case, former star running back Ezekiel Elliott mustered just 32 yards on nine carries, once again failing to carry the offense when the passing game needed him for a bailout. It marked his fifth consecutive game with fewer than 70 yards on the ground as the Cowboys converted just five of 15 third-downs and gained just 16 first downs all afternoon. 

That combined with Dallas’ home dud in a 30-16 loss to the Denver Broncos two weeks ago should have the Cowboys and their fans terrified of what’s to come as we enter the home stretch of the regular season. 

Physical defenses appear to present a problem for the Cowboys, who now have to attempt to rebound against a desperate Las Vegas Raiders team on extremely short rest with Thanksgiving Day pressure factoring in.

Following that is a meeting with a New Orleans Saints D that ranks sixth in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average at Football Outsiders), which precedes by a few weeks a meeting with the NFL-leading Arizona Cardinals and their second-ranked defense in terms of DVOA.

In their four other remaining games, they’ll have a target on their backs against surging divisional opponents. That includes two matchups with a Washington team that is jacked up front on D even without Chase Young, an experienced Eagles defensive front and a Giants D that has surrendered just 13.0 points per game the last three weeks. And three of those four intra-divisional tilts come on the road, including a potential do-or-die finale in Philly.

Prescott is too good and too well-supported not to have some bounce-back performances, especially if/when he has stalwart left tackle Tyron Smith (ankle) and star wide receiver Amari Cooper at his disposal (both were out in Week 11). 

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But Smith has missed three straight games and he and the rest of that line have not been as reliable or as durable of late as they used to be. And Cooper has already been ruled out for Thursday’s game against Las Vegas. No bueno considering that in those last two losses, Prescott has a mere 65.5 passer rating, or that he was running for his life throughout Sunday’s defeat at Arrowhead.

The defense still hasn’t been problematic, but a poor showing against Denver was a small indication a unit that entered the season with low expectations was playing above its head early in the year. That could become an issue as they face more familiar foes with more tape in the weeks to come, leaving Prescott and Co. with even less margin for error. 

That’s why Sunday represented such a significant missed opportunity for the Cowboys, who could have made a statement but instead opened the door for critics to wonder if Week 9 wasn’t a fluke. Of course, they also further opened the door for the rest of the division, and now momentum isn’t on their side. The schedule isn’t either, nor is the fact the Giants, Eagles and Washington have very little to lose considering their poor starts. 

They’re still 2.5 games up on Philadelphia and even further ahead of New York and Washington, but the ingredients are there for that margin to evaporate quickly in a division that is always up for grabs and a league that is just a little less predictable than usual this year. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012. Follow him on Twitter: @Brad_Gagnon.