0 of 7
G Fiume/Getty Images
When you’re looking back at a bracket, it’s exciting to have predicted the national champion or picked each of the Final Four qualifiers. Identifying a Cinderella team, however, is a badge of honor.
As the 2022 men’s NCAA tournament nears, a handful of programs are best positioned to potentially spring upsets.
All teams included hold no better than a No. 10 seed on the latest BracketMatrix update and are considered a mid-major program. Notably, that criteria excludes Colorado State, Boise State, Murray State, Wyoming, San Francisco and Loyola-Chicago.
Team performance relative to projected seed is also considered. Although the Pac-12 featured No. 11 UCLA (Final Four) and No. 12 Oregon State (Elite Eight) making surprising runs in 2021, our focus is mid-major programs and schools from traditional one-bid leagues—such as No. 15 Oral Roberts reaching the Sweet 16 last year.
Most of these programs need to win their conference tournament to earn a March Madness bid. If they do, though, they’re built to provide a real challenge to the favorite.
1 of 7
Bryan Bennett/Getty Images
Last season, Colgate put a massive scare into Arkansas. In the first half, the Raiders jumped out to a 14-point lead before the SEC squad recovered for a comfortable win.
Colgate lost top scorer Jordan Burns but otherwise returned eight of its 10 rotation players. After an ugly 4-10 start to the campaign, the Raiders are approaching March on an absolute tear. They’ve won 14 of their past 15 games—and every victory has included a margin of eight points or more.
Oh, and they can shoot.
Boasting the nation’s sixth-best three-point percentage, Colgate has five players averaging 2.9-plus triples per game. Four of them—Nick Cummings, Jack Ferguson, Ryan Moffatt and Oliver Lynch-Daniels—have connected at a rate of 37.4 or better.
Colgate has clinched the No. 1 seed in the Patriot League tournament and will need three victories to punch its ticket.
2 of 7
Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
Two spots behind Colgate on the three-point leaderboard is Davidson, which has knocked down 39.1 percent of its long-range attempts. Don’t give the Wildcats any space on the perimeter, either.
Davidson is content to search for its shot and ranks 321st nationally in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. However, those longer possessions don’t come at the expense of ball security; the methodical unit is an admirable 33rd in turnover rate.
Provided the Wildcats can navigate the Atlantic 10 tournament—which is far from a guarantee—they may be heavily matchup-dependent because of a pretty mediocre defense.
But if Davidson lands a favorable draw, its perimeter depth within a slow-paced offense could be a lower seed’s worst nightmare.
3 of 7
Icon Sportswire/Getty Images
Led by former Louisville coach Rick Pitino, Iona has already captured the college basketball world’s attention this season. Back in November, the Gaels upended then-No. 10 Alabama 72-68.
That result alone demands respect. But so does this defense.
Ranked eighth nationally in block rate and 46th in three-point percentage allowed, Iona has pieced together a 22-5 record with a 14-2 mark in MAAC games. The Gaels are on the verge of clinching the No. 1 seed for the conference tournament.
Low-seeded programs that lean on their defense would prefer to avoid a slugfest with Pitino’s squad.
4 of 7
Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
Even if only for no other reason than entertainment value, basketball gods, please let us have Liberty in the Big Dance.
By entertainment value, we mostly mean Darius McGhee. The nation’s leading scorer at 23.8 points per game, McGhee has launched 10.8 triples per night and connected on 41.1 percent. He dropped 48 points on Florida Gulf Coast and 41 against Stanford.
But the Flames also lean on Keegan McDowell and Kyle Rode, who have attempted 6.3 and 3.1 threes per game, respectively, and combined for a 44.5 clip.
Similar to Davidson, Liberty uses a slow tempo—283rd, per KenPom—for its perimeter-savvy attack. If their shots are falling, the Flames can be a nightmare in March.
5 of 7
Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images
In a word: Defense.
While a majority of our possible Cinderella teams have a formidable group of perimeter shooters, the Mean Green are built on stopping exactly that. Their opponents have mustered a 28.2 three-point clip, the sixth-lowest mark in the country.
North Texas is also 68th in offensive rebound rate allowed and 79th in turnover rate forced. Altogether, it’s an aggravating combination—one amplified by the nation’s slowest tempo, per KenPom.
Given that UNT has a seven-man rotation, depth is not a strength. Staying out of foul trouble would be paramount for the Conference USA front-runners if they head to March Madness.
Thanks to their defense, though, the Mean Green could be absolute pests for a potential 4-5 seed.
6 of 7
John McCoy/Getty Images
Let’s return to offense, shall we? You literally cannot find a more efficient one than South Dakota State, either.
Currently 25-4 and a perfect 16-0 in Summit League play, the Jackrabbits lead the nation in three-point percentage (45.2) and effective field-goal percentage (61.0). They only trail Gonzaga (89.5) in points per game, netting 86.6 per night.
In fairness, SDSU is relatively allergic to defense. Opponents shoot 35.1 percent from the perimeter—269th in the country—and the Jackrabbits are just 288th in turnover rate forced.
South Dakota State may give up 90 points, but it’s fully capable of scoring 91.
7 of 7
Icon Sportswire/Getty Images
We meet again, Vermont.
During the last decade, the John Becker-coached Catamounts have finished no worse than 11-5 in America East games. Navigating the AEC tournament has been a problem, though; Vermont only has two trips to March Madness in that span.
But, as a No. 13 seed in 2017 and 2019, the Catamounts stuck with Purdue and Florida State. If they make it, they’re a thorn.
Vermont ranks fifth nationally with a 57.9 effective field-goal percentage, which includes a 37.3 three-point clip (33rd). Plus, the Catamounts’ 54.4 total rebound rate is 28th.
Teams in the projected 3-5 seeding range should be hoping Vermont loses in the conference tourney. Otherwise, it’s reasonable to expect a serious fight from the America East power.
Recruiting information via 247Sports. Statistics courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports Reference unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
For all the latest Sports News Click Here
For the latest news and updates, follow us on Google News.
