Data | With French Open win, Djoker holds all the cards now

Lasting legacy: Djokovic’s 23 Grand Slam wins have made him the most prolific men’s tennis player. AFP
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Swiss maestro Roger Federer has retired from the game. Fourteen-time French Open winner Rafael Nadal missed Roland-Garros this year owing to a lingering hip injury. Despite that, the dominance of the big-three in the game has not waned yet, with the 36-year-old Novak Djokovic winning a record 23rd Grand Slam on Sunday.

Of the 81 Grand Slams played since 2003 — the year Federer broke through (a breakthrough win is the first instance of a player winning a championship) by winning the Wimbledon — the big-three have won 65 (80%); of which 23 Slams were won after they turned 30. In fact, on Sunday Djokovic became the oldest Roland-Garros champion at the age of 36 years and 20 days, a record previously held by Nadal when he won the Slam in 2022.

This trend of older players winning championships is more pronounced in the men’s game with the average age of winners since 2003 being 27. The only player who came close to breaking the dominance in recent times was Carlos Alcaraz, who won the U.S. Open in 2022. The Spaniard, who drew comparisons with Nadal by tennis commentators, won the championship as a teenager. The last time the men’s game saw a teenage champion was way back in 2005 when Nadal broke through and won the French Open. However, it is to be noted that Alcaraz did not meet any of the big three during his U.S. Open win, with Djokovic missing out due to non-compliance with vaccination norms and Nadal exiting in the fourth round.

The two other players who came close to beating the dominance of the big-three in recent times were Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev — one-time wonders — who managed to win the U.S. Open in 2020 and 2021. But thereafter while Thiem did not manage to reach the last three rounds of any of the Slams, Medvedev managed to reach just once.

Chart A | The chart shows the age of male Grand Slam champions in the Open Era. The sign (+) indicates a breakthrough win.

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On the other hand, the women’s game has seen many breakthroughs in recent years. After the dominance of Serena Williams waned, with her last Slam win at the 2017 Australian Open as a 35-year-old, many younger first-time winners emerged in the scene. Of the 21 Slams played post-2017, 11 (over 50%)were breakthroughs. Of them, nine players were aged 21 or below, three of them being teenagers. In fact, except for Angelique Kerber who won Wimbledon in 2018, every other champion was aged below 30.

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Young Polish star Iga Swiatek who won her third French Open this year, was 21 years of age when the Roland-Garros tournament started this year. She turned 22 two days later. For this analysis, the age of the champions is calculated based on the day the tournament started.

Chart B | The chart shows the age of female Grand Slam champions in the Open Era. 

A comparison of charts A and B shows that there are more +s (breakthroughs) among the women champions while it is a rarity among male winners in recent years. Moreover, most of the breakthroughs in the women’s game have been achieved by much younger players in recent years. Also, in general, the age of women champions is much lower than their male counterparts in recent years.

Chart 1 | The chart shows the most Grand Slam wins amongst singles male tennis players (before and during Open Era)

Chart 2 | The chart shows the most Grand Slam wins amongst singles female tennis players (before and during Open Era)

With his 23rd Championship win, Djokovic has surpassed Nadal and became the male tennis player with the most Slam wins (Chart 1), equalling Serena’s tally. However, Djokovic is still behind Margaret Court’s 24 wins (Chart 2).

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Source: Websites of Tennis Abstract, the ATP Tour, the Roland-Garros and the Women’s Tennis Association

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