Djokovic vs. Medvedev: Career Stats and Prediction for 2021 Men’s Final

John Minchillo/Associated Press

Novak Djokovic has won 20 Grand Slam titles. Daniil Medvedev has won none. Whatever happens Sunday, the 2021 U.S. Open men’s singles champion will be leaving New York City with a special win.

For Djokovic, he could break a three-way tie with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal atop the all-time Grand Slam men’s singles leaderboard by winning his 21st career major tournament. Not only that, but the 34-year-old would also become the first men’s singles player to achieve a calendar Grand Slam since Rod Laver in 1969, having already won the Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon this year.

Meanwhile, Medvedev will be playing in a Grand Slam final for the third time. The 25-year-old has been one of the top players in the world of late, hence his No. 2 seeding at the U.S. Open. But he has yet to break through for a win at a major. That could change as soon as Sunday evening.

When Djokovic and Medvedev go head-to-head at Arthur Ashe Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center with the U.S. Open men’s singles title on the line, it has the potential to be a thriller.

Here’s everything else you need to know heading into the 2021 U.S. Open men’s singles final.

Djokovic vs. Medvedev Stats

Head-to-Head: Djokovic leads 5-3

Season Record: Djokovic 38-5; Medvedev 40-10

Grand Slam Final Record: Djokovic 20-10; Medvedev 0-2

Preview, Prediction

When Djokovic has reached a Grand Slam final, he’s ended up as the champion two-thirds of the time. That’s remarkable. But he’s been even more impressive than his record suggests in recent years, winning major tournaments even more frequently than that.

Beginning with Djokovic’s triumph at Wimbledon in 2018, he’s been victorious in eight of the past nine Grand Slam finals he’s contested, with his lone loss during that span coming to Rafael Nadal in the 2020 French Open final. In 2021, he’s a perfect 3-0 in such matches, notching wins over Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Matteo Berrettini.

How tough is it to play against Djokovic right now? Just ask Alexander Zverev, the No. 4 seed in this year’s U.S. Open, who lost a five-set match to the Serb in the semifinals.

“If you look at the stats, if you look at the pure game of tennis action, he’s the greatest of all time,” Zverev said, per Howard Fendrich of the Associated Press. “Nobody is there with him because [he has the] most weeks world No. 1, most Masters 1000s titles, most likely going to be the most Grand Slams at the end of the day. And he has the chance of winning all four in the same year. How do you compete with that?”

Medvedev knows how tough it is to play Djokovic too.

Although the Russian had won three of his previous four matches against Djokovic heading into 2021, he didn’t have the same fortune at this year’s Australian Open. Djokovic won that final 7-5, 6-2, 6-2. It was a sign of things to come for him this year.

The only times Djokovic and Medvedev have played each other in a major tournament both came in Australia, as Djokovic also defeated Medvedev in the round of 16 of that event in 2019. So the Russian will need to do something he’s never done before in his series with Djokovic if he’s going to win Sunday.

Before falling to Djokovic in this year’s Australian Open, Medvedev’s only previous trip to a Grand Slam final came at the 2019 U.S. Open. That year, he lost in five sets to Nadal. Medvedev lost the first two sets in that match, won the next two and dropped the fifth, but there’s also no shame in losing to Nadal, another all-time great.

Will Medvedev leave New York City with his biggest win yet, or will Djokovic be too much to overcome yet again?

Sunday’s contest should be closer than the first time the two met in 2021, as Medvedev is getting more used to these types of high-stakes matchups. However, Djokovic is at his best when the pressure is on. And that’s why he will start strong and end up winning his fourth U.S. Open championship.

Prediction: Djokovic wins in four sets.