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The Miami Dolphins come into the 2022 NFL season with more expectations than they have had in the last decade.
The arrival of Mike McDaniel as head coach and the offseason trade for Tyreek Hill created a playoffs-or-bust type buzz around the franchise.
Miami was done no favors by the NFL schedule makers, as it begins the new era against the New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals.
The brutal stretch to begin the season combined with remaining questions around Tua Tagovailoa as a NFL starting quarterback may lead to some hesitancy to take the over on the Dolphins’ win total.
Miami’s over/under for wins is set at nine at DraftKings Sportsbook. The franchise produced 19 wins in the final two years of the Brian Flores despite playing in the same division as the Patriots and Bills.
Even though the schedule starts in a brutal fashion, the Dolphins have enough talent to not only go over their projected win total, but to have some players reach their projected stat totals as well.
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Over: 9 (+105; bet $100 to win $105)
Under: 9 (-125; bet $125 to win $100)
The odds suggest that the Dolphins have a better chance of going under on their projected win total in 2022.
Without looking at the schedule, you would think the Dolphins would be on a course for improvement since they upgraded their roster from a team that won nine games in 2022.
But then you look at the September schedule and you understand why it could be a challenge to get to nine wins.
Miami could start the Mike McDaniel era 0-4. New England and Buffalo come to south Florida in Weeks 1 and 3 and it visits Baltimore and Cincinnati in Weeks 2 and 4.
The Dolphins do not have many guaranteed wins on their schedule. The two contests with the New York Jets could be tough and a road trip to Detroit in Week 8 will not be easy.
It may be hard for the team to gain any momentum throughout the season since it has three stretches of multiple road games. The worst one is a three-game road trip that takes them to San Francisco, Los Angeles and Buffalo to begin December.
Miami needs to win a majority of its home games to even get close to nine wins. It should do that since Minnesota, Cleveland, Houston all come to south Florida on top of the regular clash with the Jets. The Dolphins could beat Pittsburgh at home as well.
Finding road wins on the schedule outside of the Week 9 clash with Chicago is a difficult task and that could be what dooms McDaniel in his first season in charge.
The Dolphins are +140 to make the playoffs, and that will seem like an even tougher task if September goes awry.
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Receiving Yards: Over/Under 1025.5
Receiving Touchdowns: Over/Under 8.5
Receptions: Over/Under 80.5
Tyreek Hill comes to Miami with four 1,000-yard receiving seasons and 56 receiving touchdowns to his name.
Hill immediately upgrades the Miami offense and he should form a dynamic pairing with Jaylen Waddle, as long as he gets strong quarterback play out of Tua Tagovailoa.
Hill is not the player in question when it comes to his season-long props. That player is Tagovailoa, who needs to take a step up in his game to match the level of his wide receivers.
If the improvement is there, Hill may cruise to hitting the overs on his three major season-long player props.
Hill recorded at least 87 receptions in three of the last four seasons, he has four 1,100-yard receiving seasons and 24 receiving touchdowns over the last two years.
The receptions prop bet may be the best one to attack because we know Hill will get a ton of targets from Tagovailoa. The yards and touchdowns may not be there every week, but Hill is capable of catching 10 balls in a single game every time he steps on the field.
Hill should not have to worry much about Waddle taking up some of his production. He played with another high-volume target in Kansas City in the form of Travis Kelce.
If anything, Waddle’s presence could help Hill hit his props because opposing defensive backs can’t solely focus on him, or they run the risk of being burned by Waddle.
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Passing Yards: Over/Under 3850.5
Passing Touchdowns: Over/Under 25.5
Interceptions: Over/Under 12.5
Tua Tagovailoa has not played a full NFL season in his two years in the league.
That fact alone should strike up concern about whether he can reach 3,850 passing yards.
Tagovailoa recorded 2,653 passing yards in 12 games in 2021. He had 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
If he plays a full 17-game schedule, Tagovailoa should at least challenge the over on his passing touchdown prop.
The yardage prop over could be concerning because of Tagovailoa’s accuracy and the depth behind Hill and Waddle.
Tagovailoa owns a 66.2 career completion percentage and the depth at wide receiver has yet to be figured out. Cedrick Wilson is the likely No. 3 wide out, but that will be determined in preseason.
Tagovailoa’s passing numbers could be affected by how the running game develops under McDaniel. Miami revamped its running back depth chart in the offseason by bringing in Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel.
If the running back experiment does not work out, Tagovailoa will see more pressure in the pocket and could struggle to put up significant totals in certain games.
Tagovailoa’s passing touchdown over might be the most trustworthy bet on the board. Hill and Waddle can make touchdowns happen out of nowhere and tight end Mike Gesicki is a solid red-zone target.
As long as the running backs do not gobble up red-zone scores, Tagovailoa could cruise past his previous career-best passing touchdown number and cash the over on that prop.
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Jaylen Waddle
Receiving Yards: Over/Under 925.5
Receiving Touchdowns: Over/Under 5.5
Receptions: Over/Under 85.5
Mike Gesicki
Receiving Yards: Over/Under 625.5
Receiving Touchdowns: Over/Under 4.5
Receptions: Over/Under 56.5
Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki each drop down one spot on the pecking order in the passing game with Hill’s arrival.
Waddle produced 1,015 receiving yards in his rookie season. He has a chance to get back to the 1,000-yard mark if Tagovailoa improves and operates the offense with ease.
However, if you can’t trust Tagovailoa, it is best to look at Waddle’s touchdown prop instead. Waddle had six scoring catches in 2021 and he could get more looks in the red zone if the Dolphins move the ball better in certain games.
The same can be said about Gesicki’s receiving touchdown prop. He could reach five scoring catches, even with Hill in the lineup, because he brings something different to the red-zone offense.
Gesicki’s receptions prop is attainable as well. He made 73 grabs in 2021 and he could still be called on a lot by Tagovailoa to work the middle of the field.
No player props have been offered yet on the stable of running backs because of the uncertainty over which player will win the starting job.
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