Early Predictions for the Champions of Every 2022 CBB Conference Tournament

Drew TimmeYoung Kwak/Associated Press

Missouri Valley: Loyola-Chicago (22-6, 13-4 conference)

Odds to win: 40.0 percent

Here’s a fun tip: Never, ever bet against Loyola-Chicago. You don’t do it!

Everyone’s favorite Cinderella (if you really want to call them that) is once again leading the way in the MVC. Recent setbacks to Drake and Bradley are concerning, but Loyola’s NET ranking is still No. 29—73 spots higher than that of Northern Iowa, which is tied for first in the conference with the Ramblers.

Mountain West: Boise State (22-6, 13-2 conference)

Odds to win: 20.8 percent

If you like mid-major action, the Mountain West is a good bet. Not only do five teams have at least a 10 percent chance of winning the tournament, but the conference’s four leading squads—Boise State, Wyoming, Colorado State, San Diego State—are also within 10 spots of one another in the NET rankings. The Broncos get the nod for a 5-1 run of late and a fairly balanced attack that includes a 12th-place KenPom defensive ranking. They also recently completed a season sweep of San Diego State.

Northeast: Wagner (19-3, 15-1 conference)

Odds to win: 60.1 percent

This is Wagner’s conference to lose. One more tangle with second-place Bryant is on the horizon, but the Seahawks are nevertheless on cruise control. Alex Morales won the NEC Player of the Year award last year, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again this season. He’s top-10 in the conference in scoring average (17.9), rebounding (7.6), field-goal percentage (52.1), assists (3.7) and steals (1.9) per game. 

Ohio Valley: Murray State (26-2, 16-0 in conference)

Odds to win: 56.6 percent 

Like Loyola-Chicago and a few others, Murray State is not so much a Cinderella as it’s just a solid mid-major program with a serious Big Dance pedigree.

For the Racers, that spotless conference record, a No. 29 ranking on KenPom and a nifty No. 27 NET ranking all set them well apart from the rest of the OVC field. A 4-1 record over Quadrant 1 and 2 teams doesn’t hurt either.

Patriot: Colgate (19-11, 15-2 in conference)

Odds to win: 65.9 percent

Colgate is a big favorite for a reason. One intangible for the Raiders is their resilience. They’ve avenged each of their conference losses with impressive, lopsided wins in the second go-around. Just after New Year’s, they lost to Lehigh by four but won by 16 a month later. A four-point loss to Boston University in late January preceded a 19-point win last week.

A 1-3 record against the top two quadrants won’t do the Raiders any favors, but that could mean they’ll be that much more motivated in the conference tourney, which doesn’t offer nearly the same level of competition.

Southern League: Chattanooga (23-7, 13-4 in conference)

Odds to win: 30.7 percent

The league-leading Mocs are a victim of self-inflicted wounds. Conference losses to last-place Western Carolina and middling UNC Greensboro have left their sting. But they’ve played well against the top squads, and their adjusted strength of schedule is significantly better than those of second-place Furman and third-place Samford.

Southland: Nicholls State (18-9, 8-2 in conference)

Odds to win: 43.0 percent

This is not a good league. According to TeamRankings, it clocks in at No. 30 of the 32 D-I conferences in RPI. Not what you want to see if you’re a Southland Conference fan. 

The Colonels almost take it by default, with their 200 NET ranking putting them 36 slots ahead of New Orleans, which sits atop the conference and owns a win over Nicholls. The Colonels will get revenge over New Orleans in their regular-season finale and ride that wave to an automatic bid.

SWAC: Texas Southern (13-11, 11-4 conference) 

Odds to win: 34.7 percent

Remember a second ago when we decried the poor quality of the Southland Conference? Well, the SWAC would like to see that ranking and raise you, as it checks in all the way at the bottom of the conference RPI standings.

Honestly, yikes. The conference-leading Tigers of Texas Southern started their season with a seven-game losing streak. They didn’t win a game until after Thanksgiving. 

Give them credit for coming on in conference season, including winning eight of their last nine. Sure, they’re 1-5 against the first two quadrants. But they don’t have to worry about that in the conference tourney. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

Summit: South Dakota State (25-4, 16-0)

Odds to win: 60.6 percent

It’s a walkover in the Summit League, with the Jackrabbits jack-hammering their way toward a perfect conference season.

The mascot name is apropos. Only Gonzaga scores more points per game at 89.5 than SDSU’s 86.6. And they lead the nation with a 45.2 shooting percentage from deep behind do-it-all sophomore guard Baylor Scheierman. This team was built for March, be it in its own conference or beyond.

Sun Belt: Texas State (20-6, 11-3 in conference)

Odds to win: 16.8 percent

There are significant unknowns in the Sun Belt Conference, which must be why five teams have a double-digit-percent chance of winning the conference tourney.

Texas State and conference rival Georgia State own one Quadrant 1 or 2 win between them, and thanks to a COVID cancellation, they won’t play each other this regular season. Still, an eight-game winning streak, the longest active such streak in the conference, puts the Bobcats in the driver’s seat.

WAC: New Mexico State (23-4, 13-2 in conference)

Odds to win: 39.2 percent 

The Aggies look pretty comfortable in the WAC, even with Stephen F. Austin streaking up the rankings behind them. No matter what happens from here, New Mexico State has a sweep of second-place Seattle under its belt, not to mention a 2-0 record over Quadrant 1 opponents.

WCC: Gonzaga (23-2, 12-0)

Odds to win: 81.5 percent

We saved the best, and least dramatic, for last.

The Bulldogs will win another round of WCC regular-season and tournament championships. That’s never been the challenge for the consensus No. 1 team in the nation and the NET rankings; winning the big one is the white whale. But in the meantime, Gonzaga keeps rolling over the Pepperdines of the world, hoping to sharpen its edge as much as possible once the real season begins for the lads from Spokane, Washington.