Errol Spence Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugas: Fight Odds, Live Stream, Predictions

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Errol Spence Jr. (27-0, 21 KOs) will look to add a third welterweight title to his collection when he takes on Yordenis Ugas (27-4, 12 KOs) in a pay-per-view unification bout on Saturday in Arlington, Texas.

Spence, 32, has held the IBF world title at 147 pounds since 2017. He added the WBC belt with a win over Shawn Porter in September 2019.

Ugas, 35, became the WBA champion after beating Abel Ramos in September 2020. He retained the title with an upset win over Manny Pacquiao in August of last year. That career-defining victory is all the more remarkable considering Ugas was a late replacement for Spence, who had to withdraw from the bout after suffering a torn retina in training.

With eye surgery and the subsequent recovery well behind him, Spence is ready to solidify his status as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the game. Ugas has a chance to pull off yet another stunner as a heavy underdog.

Spence vs. Ugas Fight Info

When: Saturday, April 16, at 7 p.m. ET (main event 11 p.m. ET)

Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas

TV: Showtime PPV

Live stream: SHO.com PPV ($74.99)

Odds: Spence -550 (bet $550 to win $100), Ugas +400 (bet $100 to win $400)

Odds via Draftkings Sportsbook

Preview, Predictions

For years now, Spence has been one of the most entertaining fighters around. He expertly blends power and precision, has excellent defensive skills and knows how to pounce when he senses weakness in an opponent. Unfortunately, boxing fans haven’t seen much of him lately.

Due to the aforementioned eye injury and a car crash in October 2019, Spence has only fought once since winning the WBC title. That lone fight was a unanimous-decision win over Danny Garcia in December 2020. Spence’s body has been under quite a bit of stress over the past couple years and he’s lacked ring time, but he’s confident he still has what it takes to dominate.

“This layoff was easier for me after the injury than the one after the accident because it was a lot less stress on my body,” Spence told reporters. “Mentally I was also prepared for what I was going to go through. I had been back in training before camp started for this fight so I’m ready.”

Spence should provide the toughest challenge yet for Ugas, who has wanted to make this fight happen for some time. If the crafty Cuban is going to pull off another upset, he’s going to need to take his game to a new level.

In the win over Pacquiao, Ugas was able to plant himself in the middle of the ring and pick off the smaller fighter as he darted in to attack. He found a home with the right hand often and asserted himself in the later rounds when the then-42-year-old Pacquiao’s legs started to get heavy.

Ugas probably can’t count on fatigue against Spence, and the come-and-get-it strategy he likes to employ might need some tweaking too. Spence is an inch taller than Ugas at 5’10” and has a three-inch reach advantage (72″ to 69″, per BoxRec). The American is also a heavier hitter, which could make too much standing and trading dangerous for Ugas.

Indeed, Ugas seems to be aware of the danger, acknowledging his opponent “has an aggressive mentality where he’s always coming forward” while adding that he has “some new things to showcase because that’s the way I do things,” per Ring‘s Joseph Santoliquito.

Spence has perhaps been more careful in his approach in the past couple of years, as the southpaw’s last three fights have all gone to the cards (prior to that, he had a string of 11 straight stoppages). That doesn’t mean his punches don’t sting, as anyone who saw his dominant win over Mikey Garcia can attest. Whether it’s a shot to the head or a hook into the ribcage, Ugas will have to be ready for some punishment.

There’s certainly a path to victory for Ugas, provided he can neutralize Spence’s jab and generate his own offense. Few experts seem to think he’ll find that path, though. Ring polled 20 boxing observers on their predictions, and 19 were in favor of Spence.

This fight has the potential for some great drama, especially if Spence is rusty, but look for the undefeated boxer to once again come out on top.

Prediction: Spence by unanimous decision

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