Exclusive: Base price for ICC media rights for India can work out to approx $1.5b for four-year, $4b for eight years | Cricket News – Times of India
MUMBAI: If all the complications arising out of the lack of clarity on the bidding process for media rights of the International Cricket Council (ICC) have to be set aside, there’s no denying that these rights make for the sport’s second-most valued property anywhere in the world after the Indian Premier League (IPL).
Up for grabs are broadcast rights for 50-over World Cups, T20 World Cups and the restructured Champions Trophies for the India markets, both television and digital.
The ICC hasn’t set a base price for Round One of bidding. If the auction has to be moved to Round Two – an e-auction – for any reason whatsoever, then one can only assume that the highest bid coming in for Round One will be seen as the benchmark.
So, what then should be the base price in Round One, for the bidding to begin?
The numbers can only add up if the value of the previous rights cycle – between 2015 and 2023 held by Star – is taken into consideration alongside the number of matches that India will play in these global events and the pro-rata increase in the number of events / games.
Here’s a look at (FAQ) the numbers, what industry executives have to say, and a calculated assumption on what the base price could be based on the number of ‘marquee’ games during the rights cycle.
What: Broadcast rights for ICC events between 2024 and 2027 and / or 2024 and 2031 only for the India market.
Global value of the previous rights cycle: Broadcaster Star had bought the rights for the 2015-2023 cycle for around US$1.9b and then committed to paying an additional US$197m to the overall value. So, the total value of rights stood at around US$2.1b (approx).
Total events over the next eight years: 1. Two 50-over World Cups, 2. Four T20 World Cups, 3. Two Champions Trophies.
Total events over the next four years: 1. One 50-over World Cup, 2. Two T20 World Cups, 3. One Champions Trophy.
Broadcasters can bid for: Either four years or eight years. They can submit a consolidated bid for television and digital as well as individual bids for the same.
How many events were there in the previous rights cycle: A total of six events including two 50-over World Cups (2019 & 2023), three T20 World Cups (2016, 2021, 2022) and one Champions Trophy (2017).
Of the US$2.1b Star paid for previous rights, what was the allocation per event: Industry estimates say: 1. Two 50-over World Cups were pegged at US$350m each, although there are some others who insist the value of the 2019 World Cup was significantly lower than the 2023 World Cup; 2. US$200m for two Three T20 World Cups; 3. Approximately US$175m for the 2017 Champions Trophy. The total value adds up somewhere close to US$1.5b.
Average television ratings: The ICC is using the logic “three to four IPL matches is equal to one India international game in an ICC event” as a denominator to add up average television ratings. ICC pegs the rating of one IPL game at three while top industry executives in India peg the same rating at 4.5 to 5. In either scenario, the average rating for a top India game would stand at anywhere between 12 and 15, from a television standpoint.
Is IPL-to-ICC a fair comparison: Not exactly. The IPL has a fixed annual window, caters succinctly to India prime time consumption, and has a massive fan-base across franchises that add to the viewership numbers. On the other hand, ICC events depend heavily on marquee games, especially those involving India.
Value of rights for India markets based on metrics mentioned above: With industry estimates underlining how India contributes close to 3/4ths of the global revenues, the pro-rata value of those rights for India markets should stand at around US$1.5b (approx.) – 75% of US$2/1b. However, some industry executives say the India value should stand at 2/3rds and not 3/4ths because of the distribution of events to time zones that do not cater to Indian prime time. By such estimates, the value of those rights for India markets should stand at around US$1.3b.
An approximate event-wise pro-rata jump for four years: Based on the share of revenues and eyeballs that Indian markets cater to, the value of 1. A 50-over World Cup could jump from US$350m to US$550m; 2. The value of a T20 World Cup could jump from US$200m to US$350m (although one T20 World Cup is in the United States, which does not cater well to India prime time); 3. The value of a Champions Trophy game is seen to jump from US$175m to US$250m by ICC estimates but the event is being hosted in Australia, which again does not cater to India prime-time.
Total value for four years: The ICC is confident that matches involving India and other top teams in the 2024 World Cup to be hosted by USA and the Caribbean islands, will begin early to cater to India prime time. While not much can be done about the games in Australia, these above pro-rata estimates suggest the base price for ICC media rights for the first four-year cycle should stand at anywhere between US$1.4 to US$1.6b.
Does that mean, an eight-year cycle will see the numbers doubling: India is scheduled to host a 50-over World Cup in 2031. However, given the manner in which the format is seen to be dwindling, and with an eight-year gap in the interim before one gets there, it’s a long shot, say industry heads. Yet, ICC estimates could take into account the generally accepted industry multiplier over the next eight years and could possibly peg the base for the 2024-2031 cycle at a little over US$4b. The formula works on the principle of three times the multiple of current value, a generally accepted norm that the ICC even shared with the broadcasters in its recent calculations.
If US$1.5b is approximate base price for the first four-year cycle, what could the bidding process fetch: As always, beauty lies in the eye of the beholder. With number of marquee matches per event, especially those involving India, going up – considering there’s one ICC event every year; digital viewership growing at an alarming rate and other methods of consumption evolving with growth in technology; broadcasters looking to buy content in order to keep their subscriber / Pay TV numbers floating – the value will definitely rise. However, allocation of events across the world, the time zones, number of India matches, etc, will also act as catalysts in determining the value. Industry estimates, across platforms, expect the value to reach up to anywhere between US$2.2 to 2.5b for the first four years.
Number of marquee matches involving India, the semifinals and finals in ICC events over the next eight years: 1. Seven India matches per T20 World Cup, so 28 matches over eight years and four T20 WCs; 2. Three India matches in Champions Trophy so six matches in two Champions Trophy events over eight years; 3. Nine India matches per 50-over World Cup, so 18 India matches over eight years and two 50-over WCs. These tournaments across eight years will also see a total of 24 semifinals and eight finals being played, and the prospect of India participating in some or most of these.
Bottomline: The India matches, the semifinals and the finals account for 65 to 70% of the total revenues. Whatever else the ICC earns from the sale of these rights will be from the non-India matches to be played.
Up for grabs are broadcast rights for 50-over World Cups, T20 World Cups and the restructured Champions Trophies for the India markets, both television and digital.
The ICC hasn’t set a base price for Round One of bidding. If the auction has to be moved to Round Two – an e-auction – for any reason whatsoever, then one can only assume that the highest bid coming in for Round One will be seen as the benchmark.
So, what then should be the base price in Round One, for the bidding to begin?
The numbers can only add up if the value of the previous rights cycle – between 2015 and 2023 held by Star – is taken into consideration alongside the number of matches that India will play in these global events and the pro-rata increase in the number of events / games.
Here’s a look at (FAQ) the numbers, what industry executives have to say, and a calculated assumption on what the base price could be based on the number of ‘marquee’ games during the rights cycle.
What: Broadcast rights for ICC events between 2024 and 2027 and / or 2024 and 2031 only for the India market.
Global value of the previous rights cycle: Broadcaster Star had bought the rights for the 2015-2023 cycle for around US$1.9b and then committed to paying an additional US$197m to the overall value. So, the total value of rights stood at around US$2.1b (approx).
Total events over the next eight years: 1. Two 50-over World Cups, 2. Four T20 World Cups, 3. Two Champions Trophies.
Total events over the next four years: 1. One 50-over World Cup, 2. Two T20 World Cups, 3. One Champions Trophy.
Broadcasters can bid for: Either four years or eight years. They can submit a consolidated bid for television and digital as well as individual bids for the same.
How many events were there in the previous rights cycle: A total of six events including two 50-over World Cups (2019 & 2023), three T20 World Cups (2016, 2021, 2022) and one Champions Trophy (2017).
Of the US$2.1b Star paid for previous rights, what was the allocation per event: Industry estimates say: 1. Two 50-over World Cups were pegged at US$350m each, although there are some others who insist the value of the 2019 World Cup was significantly lower than the 2023 World Cup; 2. US$200m for two Three T20 World Cups; 3. Approximately US$175m for the 2017 Champions Trophy. The total value adds up somewhere close to US$1.5b.
Average television ratings: The ICC is using the logic “three to four IPL matches is equal to one India international game in an ICC event” as a denominator to add up average television ratings. ICC pegs the rating of one IPL game at three while top industry executives in India peg the same rating at 4.5 to 5. In either scenario, the average rating for a top India game would stand at anywhere between 12 and 15, from a television standpoint.
Is IPL-to-ICC a fair comparison: Not exactly. The IPL has a fixed annual window, caters succinctly to India prime time consumption, and has a massive fan-base across franchises that add to the viewership numbers. On the other hand, ICC events depend heavily on marquee games, especially those involving India.
Value of rights for India markets based on metrics mentioned above: With industry estimates underlining how India contributes close to 3/4ths of the global revenues, the pro-rata value of those rights for India markets should stand at around US$1.5b (approx.) – 75% of US$2/1b. However, some industry executives say the India value should stand at 2/3rds and not 3/4ths because of the distribution of events to time zones that do not cater to Indian prime time. By such estimates, the value of those rights for India markets should stand at around US$1.3b.
An approximate event-wise pro-rata jump for four years: Based on the share of revenues and eyeballs that Indian markets cater to, the value of 1. A 50-over World Cup could jump from US$350m to US$550m; 2. The value of a T20 World Cup could jump from US$200m to US$350m (although one T20 World Cup is in the United States, which does not cater well to India prime time); 3. The value of a Champions Trophy game is seen to jump from US$175m to US$250m by ICC estimates but the event is being hosted in Australia, which again does not cater to India prime-time.
Total value for four years: The ICC is confident that matches involving India and other top teams in the 2024 World Cup to be hosted by USA and the Caribbean islands, will begin early to cater to India prime time. While not much can be done about the games in Australia, these above pro-rata estimates suggest the base price for ICC media rights for the first four-year cycle should stand at anywhere between US$1.4 to US$1.6b.
Does that mean, an eight-year cycle will see the numbers doubling: India is scheduled to host a 50-over World Cup in 2031. However, given the manner in which the format is seen to be dwindling, and with an eight-year gap in the interim before one gets there, it’s a long shot, say industry heads. Yet, ICC estimates could take into account the generally accepted industry multiplier over the next eight years and could possibly peg the base for the 2024-2031 cycle at a little over US$4b. The formula works on the principle of three times the multiple of current value, a generally accepted norm that the ICC even shared with the broadcasters in its recent calculations.
If US$1.5b is approximate base price for the first four-year cycle, what could the bidding process fetch: As always, beauty lies in the eye of the beholder. With number of marquee matches per event, especially those involving India, going up – considering there’s one ICC event every year; digital viewership growing at an alarming rate and other methods of consumption evolving with growth in technology; broadcasters looking to buy content in order to keep their subscriber / Pay TV numbers floating – the value will definitely rise. However, allocation of events across the world, the time zones, number of India matches, etc, will also act as catalysts in determining the value. Industry estimates, across platforms, expect the value to reach up to anywhere between US$2.2 to 2.5b for the first four years.
Number of marquee matches involving India, the semifinals and finals in ICC events over the next eight years: 1. Seven India matches per T20 World Cup, so 28 matches over eight years and four T20 WCs; 2. Three India matches in Champions Trophy so six matches in two Champions Trophy events over eight years; 3. Nine India matches per 50-over World Cup, so 18 India matches over eight years and two 50-over WCs. These tournaments across eight years will also see a total of 24 semifinals and eight finals being played, and the prospect of India participating in some or most of these.
Bottomline: The India matches, the semifinals and the finals account for 65 to 70% of the total revenues. Whatever else the ICC earns from the sale of these rights will be from the non-India matches to be played.
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