Expert Picks for the 2022 Men’s NCAA Championship Game

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The stage is set for the 2022 men’s national championship between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Kansas Jayhawks.

Someone check on Roy Williams, because this must be his dream coming true. In fact, nobody in college basketball could possibly be enjoying a retirement tour any more than the former coach of both the UNC and Kansas programs.

Not after Saturday night, at least.

North Carolina prevented a storybook ending for Mike Krzyzewski, toppling his Duke Blue Devils 81-77 and officially sending the legendary coach into retirement. The victory sealed the Tar Heels’ spot opposite Kansas, which stormed past the Villanova Wildcats 81-65 in the opening game of the Final Four.

After recapping how both UNC and Kansas have navigated their way to the championship, B/R’s experts—David Kenyon, Kerry Miller and Joel Reuter—have offered one last prediction.

It’s trophy time, baby.

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Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

When: Monday, April 4

Time: 9:20 p.m. ET

Where: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana

TV: TBS

Stream: March Madness Live

Spread (via DraftKings): Kansas -4

Moneyline: Kansas -180 (bet $180 to win $100); North Carolina +155 (bet $100 to win $155)

Total: 153

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Offense, offense, offense. And a little bit of the clutch gene.

Brady Manek tallied 28 points as North Carolina opened the Big Dance with a 95-63 dismantling of Marquette, setting up a showdown with top-seeded Baylor. Although the Tar Heels squandered a 25-point second-half lead, they bounced back in overtime to secure a 93-86 victory while RJ Davis poured in 30 points.

During the Sweet 16, UNC toppled UCLA 73-66 thanks to 30 points from Caleb Love and a 12-2 surge in the last two minutes of regulation. Armando Bacot overpowered No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s with 20 points and 22 rebounds in the 69-49 Elite Eight triumph.

And then, the Heels derailed Duke’s dream season.

In a contest full of lead changes, UNC outlasted the rival Blue Devils and ended Mike Krzyzewski’s career on a sour note. Love scored 28 points, Bacot added 11 points and 21 rebounds and the Tar Heels became only the fourth No. 8 seed to reach the national title game.

And if UNC wins on Monday, it will join 1985 Villanova as the lowest-seeded champion since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in that season. Never before has a first-year coach won a national title, either; Hubert Davis has a shot at history.

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David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Throughout the regular season, the Ochai Agbaji-led offense guided Bill Self’s squad. The Jayhawks had scored 78.6 points per game on the way to a 28-6 record and Big 12 title.

However, it’s been a different story for most of March Madness.

Kansas’ first four opponents—Texas Southern, Creighton, Providence and Miami—shot a combined 34.2 percent with a dismal 25.6 clip from the perimeter. This performance from the defense helped atone for a quiet stretch from Agbaji, who totaled only 31 points during the Jayhawks’ run to the Elite Eight.

But the team’s strength has also reappeared lately. Agbaji has scored 39 points in the last two games, while forward David McCormack has netted 40. Kansas drained 13 threes—including six from Agbaji—in Saturday’s victory over Villanova, too.

Agbaji and McCormack will be the keys to Kansas’ success in the championship, though both Christian Braun and Jalen Wilson are regular double-digit scorers for the Jayhawks, too.

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So far in March Madness, the Jayhawks’ defense has performed at a fantastic level. And since the second half of the Elite Eight against Miami began, the offense has thrived, too. Kansas enters the championship with the more balanced team.

Agbaji has regained his All-American form at the perfect time, and McCormack has simply dominated the last two games. The latter point is especially notable, given Bacot’s ability to control the interior. Kansas has a legitimate counter to UNC’s top player, and that’s not something you could confidently say a month ago.

However, is there anything more dangerous than a hot offense?

North Carolina’s perimeter group has pieced together a ridiculous run to the season finale. The trio of Love, Manek and Davis have combined for 46 trifectas and six 20-point showings.

If you believe this torrid shot-making can continue, UNC—which last won a national title in 2017—is probably your pick. But the B/R crew leans 2-1 in favor of the Jayhawks, who are seeking the program’s first championship in 14 years.

            

Predictions

David Kenyon: Kansas

Kerry Miller: North Carolina

Joel Reuter: Kansas

             

Odds via DraftKings and accurate as of Saturday night.

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