Fantasy Basketball 2021: Breakout Stars Ready to Be Among the NBA’s Best

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The NBA is knee-deep in the preseason, and the 2021-22 campaign is knocking on our door, with an October 19 tipoff scheduled.

And while the league figures out its lineups, fantasy basketball managers have work to do too. Research needs undertaking, drafts need completing and championship rosters need forming.

For the latter, there’s no better companion to the promised land than a player who vastly outperforms his ADP (average draft position). For the upcoming season, we have got three players who are capable of serious breakouts: Christian Wood, Jerami Grant and De’Andre Hunter.

Each of the three occupies a different tier in the FantasyPros consolidated expert rankings and should vastly outperform his current ADP.

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Last season, Wood’s ADP was No. 95, per FantasyPros (via the NBA). This year, his breakout has been respected. His ADP is No. 44, but that’s still not high enough.

In his first season as a starter, Wood averaged 21.0 points, 9.6 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game. While those are great numbers, his free-throw rate (63.1 percent) was not. But the upside lies from deep, where the 26-year-old hit 1.9 threes per game on 37.4-percent shooting.

Fluid and relatively explosive, Wood passes the eye test with flying colors. His shot looks comfortable, so it’s hard to imagine his free-throw rate staying below 70. And should he take that step in efficiency, he will outproduce the less versatile bigs being drafted earlier (e.g., Richaun Holmes at 34, Clint Capela at 37 and Robert Williams III at 42).

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It seems that fantasy analysts are convinced that Cade Cunningham’s arrival is going to extinguish Grant’s value. After being a late-round behemoth in 2020-21, the 27-year-old forward is now getting drafted 77th. 

That puts Grant behind wings like DeMar DeRozan (56) and Gordon Hayward (60). Yet the former should have less volume on the Chicago Bulls, the latter’s health is questionable and neither was exceptionally better than Grant last season.

During a campaign full of career highs, Grant averaged 22.3 points (career high), 4.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists (career high), 1.1 blocks and 2.1 threes (career high). His field-goal efficiency was uninspiring at 42.9 percent, but he hit 35.0 percent of his threes and 84.5 percent of his free throws (career high).

A late-blooming, versatile 27-year-old is coming off of an exceptional, albeit somewhat, inefficient first year as a team’s top option. Now he’s getting a consensus No. 1 pick at point guard. If we are projecting a dip in scoring, we should also expect a bump in facilitation and, therefore, a bump in Grant’s efficiency—making him a fantastic pick.

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Hunter, whose ADP is 118, is obviously more of a gamble than Wood or Grant. But relative to his ADP, he could provide even better value.

Restricted to just 23 games last season because of a knee injury, Hunter made quite the impact in his time on the court. The statistics were solid: 15.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists per game and 1.3 threes on 48.4-percent shooting from the field, 32.6 percent from deep and 85.9 percent from the line.

But the tape is where the 23-year-old stood out. Comfortable on the court, the 6’8″ wing locked in his minutes with stifling defense, explosive finishes and a jumper that breeds confidence. And his somewhat unexpected blend of poise and upside was not lost on those with him on the hardwood.

In a recent article by The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, the Hawks’ Solomon Hill said that Atlanta could have won the championship last season if Hunter were healthy. And per Soaring Down South’s Matthew Hallett, Hunter is healthy this year and participating fully in training camp two-a-days. 

At 118, the Hawk is being drafted behind the likes of Thaddeus Young (107), Joe Ingles (109), Jae’Sean Tate (110) and Bobby Portis Jr. (117). Not only does he have a higher floor than any of those four, but his ceiling is also several rounds higher.

                

ADP via FantasyPros.