Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Veteran closer Kenley Jansen is leaving the Los Angeles Dodgers after 12 seasons.
The Atlanta Braves announced they signed him to a one-year, $16 million deal Friday.
The right-hander is no longer the lights-out presence on the mound he was during his prime, yet he remains one of MLB’s better relievers. His 1.8 WAR was tied for 11th on FanGraphs among relief pitchers in 2021.
Jansen made 69 appearances for the Los Angeles Dodgers, recording 38 saves, a 2.22 ERA and a 3.08 FIP. He averaged 11.22 strikeouts per nine innings.
The 34-year-old is far and away the franchise’s all-time leader in saves. With 350, he has more than doubled up Eric Gagne (161) in second place. Los Angeles also extended its playoff streak to nine years and reached the National League Championship Series for the fifth time in six seasons.
Despite those two factors, Jansen’s future with the Dodgers was unclear heading into the offseason. He acknowledged the situation was “not in my hands” following L.A.’s NLCS exit, per the Los Angeles Times‘ Mike DiGiovanna:
“This is the only team I know. They believed in me when I was 17 years old as a catcher. And then they made me a pitcher and believed in me as a pitcher. And here I am now. It happened fast. I enjoyed this journey. And I’ll always say, whatever happens, I’ll always be a Dodger.”
In addition to Jansen, the 2020 world champions had Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Corey Seager and Chris Taylor all hitting free agency. While a rebuild obviously wasn’t in store, it was potentially a period of transition, and re-signing a closer in his mid-30s wouldn’t reflexively fit in that plan.
Jansen gave the front office plenty of reasons to keep him around, though.
After his average cutter velocity was a career-low 90.87 mph in 2020, per Brooks Baseball, it climbed back to 92.58 mph. His sinker averaged 93.95 mph as well, up from 92.33 mph.
Per Baseball Savant, opposing hitters had a .267 expected slugging percentage and a .259 expected weighted on-base average against Jansen. Those numbers ranked in the top 3 and 8 percent of MLB, respectively.
The Curacao native was nearly untouchable in the postseason, too. He allowed three hits, zero runs and struck out 14 batters in seven innings of work.
But a decline is inevitable, and it’s only a matter of when Jansen’s performance begins to tail off in a more noticeable way.
His 4.7 walks per nine innings are one worrying metric. Opponents’ .213 batting average on balls in play was also the lowest ever for Jansen, so a corresponding effect could be reflected in his numbers if that regresses more to his career average (.264).
The Dodgers have maintained one of MLB’s highest payrolls for years, yet even they have their limits when it comes to spending top dollar on an aging pitcher on the wrong side of 30.
In Brusdar Graterol and Blake Treinen, Los Angeles already has two candidates who can take over for Jansen as the closer.
After an underwhelming 2019 campaign, Treinen has rediscovered the form with L.A. that helped him save 38 games and make the All-Star team in 2018. Graterol, meanwhile, possesses electric stuff including a fastball and sinker that can hit triple digits.
Putting emotion aside, it might be better for the Dodgers to move on from Jansen now rather than re-sign him and risk watching him experience the kind of decline that’s inevitable for aging relievers.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise mentioned
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