Heisman Watch 2021: Latest Race Predictions Entering Week 13

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Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

The 2021 college football season is nearing its end, with teams gearing up for their final week of regular-season games before conference championships and bowl games. As the list of title contenders across the college football landscape has winnowed down to a select, so too has the list of Heisman Trophy hopefuls.

Barring a dramatic departure from typical voting patterns, a race that was once wide-open appears to be between a pair of talented quarterbacks in Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Stroud is the favorite to win college football’s most prestigious individual award at -200 (wager $200 to win $100). He’s trailed by Young, who sits at +150 (wager $100 to win $150) as of Thursday. After that, it’s a steep drop to the player with the next best odds, Ole Miss’ Matt Corral (+2200).

With Stroud and Young separating themselves from the pack, we’ll take a look at what’s gotten them to this point, what they need to do to win the award and check in with a few players who might steal some votes but who are unlikely to come away with the Heisman.

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Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

C.J. Stroud has been steadily building a case as a Heisman contender all season long, but he vaulted himself to the top of the heap with his dominant Week 12 showing against then-No. 7 Michigan State.

Stroud picked apart the Spartans defense with incredible ease, completing 32 of 35 passes for 432 yards and six touchdowns, all in the first half. The damage was done, the Heisman case burnished. Stroud was able to sit back and enjoy the second half of a 56-7 drubbing that helped move Ohio State up to No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings.

While the Michigan State win is one of the best statement games you will ever see, Stroud has shown great command of the Buckeyes offense all season.

He threw five touchdowns the previous week against Purdue and had a midseason stretch of three games when he tossed a combined 12 touchdowns without any interceptions against Indiana, Purdue and Rutgers. Even Ohio State’s lone loss can’t be pinned on the freshman’s shoulders, as Stroud threw for 484 yards, three touchdowns and an interception against Oregon on Sept. 11.

With one hand seemingly already on the Heisman trophy, Stroud has a chance to cement his case if he can lead Ohio State to a win over Michigan on Saturday, which would put his team in the Big Ten Championship game. If he falters there, it could open the door for Young.

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Stroud has been getting a ton of attention for his performances over the past couple of weeks, and Bryce Young is right there with him.

The Alabama signal-caller has thrown more touchdowns (38) and fewer interceptions (three) than Stroud and even has a pair of rushing touchdowns to boot (Stroud doesn’t have any). He’s been lighting teams up and taking care of the football over the latter half of the season, with 18 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his past five games.

It certainly seems like Young could be considered a front-runner for the award, and it’s possible the oddsmakers have it all wrong. If there’s a case to be made against Stroud and for Young, it might be the supporting cast, per ESPN staff:

“Stroud also benefits from playing behind arguably the nation’s best offensive line and throwing to undeniably the nation’s best wide receiving corps.

“Many quarterbacks likely would put up big numbers when throwing to wide receivers Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, tight end Jeremy Ruckert and others. Stroud also didn’t light up two of the better Big Ten defenses he faced in Penn State and Nebraska, two games Ohio State largely won because of its own defense.“

Now, Alabama has plenty of talent around Young on offense, so it might not hold sway with the voters salivating over Stroud’s recent performances. Then again, Young is coming off a monstrous showing of his own, throwing for 559 yards and five touchdowns against Arkansas in Week 12.

So how does Young take the Heisman? Well, if he can manage to put a dent in Georgia’s overwhelming, marauding, top-ranked defense in the SEC title game on Dec. 4, he could well win the trophy. The Bulldogs have given up just seven offensive touchdowns all season long. If Young pushes that into, say, double digits and gets a win, he will get plenty of love from Heisman voters.

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John Bazemore/Associated Press

So if you believe the race is down to Stroud and Young, who else should at least be getting some looks? 

Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III will likely get some attention if voters again want to look beyond quarterbacks, who have dominated the award in recent years (Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith disrupted the trend with his win in 2020).

Walker is second in the FBs with 1,498 rushing yards and tied for fourth with 17 rushing touchdowns. Teams have keyed in on him all season long and largely been unable to stop him, as the junior tailback is averaging a robust 6.4 yards per carry. It’s been an incredible season, but his Heisman chances took a big knock against Ohio State, as Stroud went supernova and Walker managed just 25 yards on six carries. That will stick out in voters’ memories.

Matt Corral has put together gutsy performances all season long as a dual-threat quarterback for Ole Miss, tallying 3,100 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and three interceptions while adding another 552 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. However, his numbers have tapered off in recent weeks, and Bleacher Report’s David Kenyon argued it would be hard for voters to pick him over the likes of Young:

“If Corral had thrived in the October clash between Alabama and Ole Miss, perhaps that would decrease the appeal of Young’s greater statistical production this season.

“In reality, though, Alabama won that matchup 42-21. Young has also totaled 40 touchdowns, which is 11 more than Corral. They’ve both tossed only three interceptions, and Corral is averaging just 4.9 offensive yards more per game than Young. The case for Corral over Young is awfully thin.“

For those of you who are sick of not just quarterbacks but offensive players all together getting all the attention, Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis is your man to cheer for. He’s the anchor of Georgia’s historically great defense, taking on multiple blockers, blowing up run plays and collapsing pockets. 

Unfortunately, Davis doesn’t play a glamour position, and his counting stats disguise his brilliance, with just 23 tackles (3.5 for a loss) and two sacks in 10 games. There’s nothing flashy about his game. The only defensive player to win the award, Michigan’s Charles Woodson in 1997, at least made obvious highlight-reel plays as a cornerback and punt returner.

Davis may snag a few votes, as he should, but it’s highly unlikely he will win the Heisman.