How Deandre Ayton Offer Sheet Impacts Kevin Durant Trade Market

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Deandre Ayton is or has or intends to sign a four-year, $132.9 million offer sheet with the Indiana Pacers, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. If or when or once he puts pen to paper, the Phoenix Suns will have 48 hours to match or let him walk for absolutely nothing.

Now, please excuse me while I make all of this about the Kevin Durant trade sweepstakes.

Viewing the Ayton offer sheet through this lens is not a farce. Woj previously reported the Suns and Miami Heat were “among two of the teams” on his list of preferred destinations. Any major or could-be or would-be transactions involving either of them invariably has a colossal impact on the future of a top-15 player in NBA history.

So, yeah, this exercise matters. Let’s parse through the fallout from all angles.

Phoenix’s Path to KD Is Getting Complicated

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Despite what over-the-top snark merchants have tweeted—including yours truly—the Ayton offer sheet does not torpedo the Suns’ chances of acquiring KD.

They’re on Durant’s wish list. That matters in this situation, even with four guaranteed years remaining on his contract. Equally, if not more, importantly: Ayton was never going to be among the primary assets heading to the Brooklyn Nets.

They already re-signed the much cheaper Nicolas Claxton, and maxing out another big man via sign-and-trade who doesn’t space the floor doesn’t make much sense when you need to plan your roster around Ben Simmons’ finite range. The Nets could always look to reroute Simmons, but that’s an awful lot of trouble to go through for Ayton, an extremely talented play finisher who is neither a certified All-Star nor a proven self-creator.

Acquiring any player via sign-and-trade also means Brooklyn would have to get under the $157 million luxury-tax apron. It’s roughly $25 million over that number now. Taking on Ayton would be convoluted and prohibitive at best.

Ayton’s unresolved free agency allowed them to suss out sign-and-trades with facilitating parties who would send additional assets Brooklyn’s way. And though base-year compensation issues would remain in play, sending out Ayton’s salary in any KD deal would theoretically reduce the collateral damage of Phoenix’s package. Maybe it wouldn’t need to include Mikal Bridges or, more likely, Jae Crowder or Cameron Johnson.

That path to Durant is now virtually off the table. Ayton cannot be sign-and-traded once he officially sign an offer sheet. The Suns can and should match and then figure out the rest later.

Emphasis on later. They wouldn’t be able to move him until Jan. 15, and he’d have the capacity to veto any agreed-upon trade for a full year.

BUT WAIT: Hope Is Far From Lost for the Suns

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Eleventh-hour pivots remain possible. The verbiage of the Ayton reporting suggests he hasn’t actually signed anything, which still gives the Suns time to fold him into a sign-and-trade. A 28-team KD megadeal isn’t coming together that quickly, but they could potentially scoop up some assets to use as sweeteners in subsequent moves.

Granted, Phoenix doesn’t have any trade exceptions, which means any contracts it lands for Ayton cannot be aggregated until 60 days after arrival. That’s less than ideal, although not unworkable. The Suns can prioritize picks and the creation of a large trade exception that better equips them to take back non-KD salary as part of any prospective blockbuster.

But even this scenario will soon be off-limits. Again: Once Ayton puts pen to paper on his offer sheet, he can’t be involved in the KD sweepstakes. That dramatically alters the Suns’ best offer to the Nets, and the convenience with which they could strike a deal.

Phoenix needs to send out a hair over $35.2 million to acquire KD’s $44.1 million salary. Bridges becomes a must-include (and arguably already is a non-negotiable inclusion) for his $21 million price point. The Suns can come up with the $14.2 millionish difference in a variety of ways, but without supplementary assets from an Ayton sign-and-trade, they aren’t getting away with flat-out flotsam.

They also have to compete with any overtures coming out Miami, Toronto or another dark horse yet to be named. Rather than fleshing out packages with Landry Shamet, Dario Saric or Cameron Payne, the Suns may need to unload both Crowder and Johnson. Their tippy-top offer looks something like Bridges, Crowder, Johnson, four first-rounders (2023, 2025, 2027, 2029) and three first-round swaps (2024, 2026, 2028).

This isn’t to say that has to be the package. They could add other salaries if the Nets (inexplicably) want to get off Joe Harris. Maybe it takes slightly less draft equity. Perhaps the Nets will take Shamet instead of Crowder, etc. But Bridges, Crowder, Johnson and your entire draft is now the Suns’ top-shelf proposal.

Who Has the Better KD Offer Now: Phoenix or Miami?

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It remains to be seen how the Suns’ maxed-out cupboard now compares to other possible offers.

The Heat loom here since they’re the only other team on KD’s reported list thus far. Their salary filler is very much up in the air. They can’t feasibly match KD’s money without including Kyle Lowry or signing-and-trading Udonis Haslem somewhere to overcome the math.

Regardless, the meat and potatoes of their all-in package is Tyler Herro, Nikola Jovic, three fully unprotected first-round picks (2023, 2027 and 2029) and three first-round pick swaps (2024, 2026, 2028). Mind you, this all presumes they can rope the Oklahoma City Thunder into removing the protections on the 2025 first-rounder that the Heat already owe to them.

Phoenix has that framework beat unless Brooklyn is in love with Lowry’s post-prime and/or smitten by the idea of shelling out near-max money for the extension-eligible Herro.

This is where things get interesting.

KD’s short wish list always suggested dark-horse outcomes could bubble to the surface. Phoenix’s capacity to offer what felt like far and away the best package limited that speculation.

The Ayton offer sheet potentially shifts the KD landscape to wide-open. Brooklyn is more incentivized to explore alternatives that Durant doesn’t approve, and he may be more inclined to expanding his list of destinations, particularly if he believes the Nets will send him elsewhere without giving a damn about his initial preferences.

How Does the Suns’ Peak KD Offer Stack Up with the “Other” Favorite?

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Only one other team has been prominently lurking about the the KD sweepstakes: the Raptors. They may not be a Durant favorite right now, but team president Masai Ujiri is equal parts brilliant, creative and giver of zero-you-know-whats.

Dangling Bridges, Crowder, Johnson, four firsts and three swaps doesn’t give Phoenix a leg up over a Toronto package assembled around the more tangible intrigue of Scottie Barnes plus picks and salary filler.

If Barnes is off the table, as expected, the Raptors’ best offer becomes Pascal Siakam and picks. That should resonate more with a Nets team looking to remain competitive post-KD. Siakam is an established All-NBA player and an actual self-creator. Getting him on top of draft equity trounces Phoenix’s offer of non-stars and a crapton of picks.

Choosing between Phoenix’s new best offer and Toronto’s not-actually-all-in package most likely comes down to a matter of draft-pick preference. Do you short the Suns’ future, knowing Durant is entering his age-34 season, Chris Paul is entering his age-37 season and the historically frugal and under-league-investigation Robert Sarver still controls the team (for now), but that Devin Booker is only 25 and signed for the next six years? Or do you bet on the Raptors going belly-up in the long term despite keeping Barnes because KD and Siakam (28) aren’t particularly young, and because, as of now, Durant doesn’t have Toronto on his list?

Does KD Now Open Up the Trade Market?

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Phoenix is, for now, helped along by the finite market for KD. He may have four guaranteed years left on his deal, but you aren’t mortgaging your future for someone on the back end of their prime who doesn’t want to play for you.

Durant can continue to insist this is an either-or proposition and hope Brooklyn “settles” for the best offers coming out of Miami or Phoenix. But what if the Nets try to call his bluff? Or what if they really are prepared to keep he and Kyrie Irving into next season?

KD needs to be open to considering other teams if he’s hell-bent on leaving the Nets. And for what it’s worth, there are teams who would become contenders (or favorites) upon acquiring him that wouldn’t need to drain their asset pool.

Do the Golden State Warriors actually factor into this equation, as ESPN’s Brian Windhorst recently implied? And how much draft equity are they willing to pair with Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and James Wiseman?

Would the Memphis Grizzlies dare to include Jaren Jackson Jr. in a prospective deal? Does Desmond Bane, Ziaire Williams and a metric ton of draft equity stack up with the likely offers from Miami, Phoenix and Toronto?

Right now, the scope of KD’s market isn’t nearly large enough to deem these sweepstakes wide-open. Assuming Sarver doesn’t whine about paying KD, Ayton, CP3 and Booker, the Suns could still have the best package available to the Nets. But their viability in this has always been largely predicated on Durant wanting them and virtually no one else.

If the Ayton offer sheet does anything, it increases the chances that Phoenix can’t cobble together the best trade proposal for Durant. That could convince KD to broaden the currently narrow market he has created for himself.

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to his Hardwood Knocks podcast.