IPL 2021 is now clearly divided into two sets of teams. One set has three teams vying for placements within the top three, while the other has four teams scrambling to make it to the final qualifying spot.
As things stand, any match between two teams from the same set has no impact on teams from the other set. Thus, the DC-CSK match on Monday was of no consequence to KKR, PBKS, RR and MI whose chances and routes of qualifying remain what they were before that game.
DC’s win however has a major impact on the prospects of itself, CSK and RCB.
Here’s what things look like for these three teams as of now:
1) With 20 points in the bag and a match to play, DC is now in pole position to take the top slot. In fact, it is assured of at least tying for the top slot because the best that CSK or RCB can do is to match their 20 points. DC has a better than even chance of finishing alone at the top, which can happen of course by winning its last game against RCB. In case they lose that, they can still be the sole number one if RCB loses to SRH and CSK loses to PBKS.
2) CSK is second on the table now with a game against PBKS in hand. They have a 25% chance of tying for the top slot (if they win their last game and DC lose theirs), but they are overwhelmingly likely to at least tie for second. CSK cannot exclusively occupy the top slot any more on points. It could tie for second with RCB even if it loses its last game provided RCB loses one of its remaining matches. And a tie would almost certainly ensure second placed finish for CSK, which has a much higher net run rate than RCB.
3) RCB can still tie for first place on points if it wins both its remaining games, but that might not be enough to ensure it doesn’t end up third. For RCB to be sure of a top two finish, CSK have to lose to PBKS. If that doesn’t happen, the best RCB can do is to get a three-way tie for first spot (if it wins both its remaining two games) which will almost certainly place them third given that their NRR of -0.157 is so much lower than CSK’s +0.739 or even DC’s +0.526. That’s not the kind of gap that can be covered in two games.
4) Realistically then, if you have to bet on which teams will end up in the top two slots, you would have to pick DC and CSK.
As things stand, any match between two teams from the same set has no impact on teams from the other set. Thus, the DC-CSK match on Monday was of no consequence to KKR, PBKS, RR and MI whose chances and routes of qualifying remain what they were before that game.
DC’s win however has a major impact on the prospects of itself, CSK and RCB.
Here’s what things look like for these three teams as of now:
1) With 20 points in the bag and a match to play, DC is now in pole position to take the top slot. In fact, it is assured of at least tying for the top slot because the best that CSK or RCB can do is to match their 20 points. DC has a better than even chance of finishing alone at the top, which can happen of course by winning its last game against RCB. In case they lose that, they can still be the sole number one if RCB loses to SRH and CSK loses to PBKS.
2) CSK is second on the table now with a game against PBKS in hand. They have a 25% chance of tying for the top slot (if they win their last game and DC lose theirs), but they are overwhelmingly likely to at least tie for second. CSK cannot exclusively occupy the top slot any more on points. It could tie for second with RCB even if it loses its last game provided RCB loses one of its remaining matches. And a tie would almost certainly ensure second placed finish for CSK, which has a much higher net run rate than RCB.
3) RCB can still tie for first place on points if it wins both its remaining games, but that might not be enough to ensure it doesn’t end up third. For RCB to be sure of a top two finish, CSK have to lose to PBKS. If that doesn’t happen, the best RCB can do is to get a three-way tie for first spot (if it wins both its remaining two games) which will almost certainly place them third given that their NRR of -0.157 is so much lower than CSK’s +0.739 or even DC’s +0.526. That’s not the kind of gap that can be covered in two games.
4) Realistically then, if you have to bet on which teams will end up in the top two slots, you would have to pick DC and CSK.
What were the playoff possibilities at the end of October 3? Find out HERE.
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