With 13 matches left to play now in the league stage of IPL 2022, there still remain as many as 8,192 possible combinations of results.
TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making the playoffs. As of the morning of Wednesday, May 11, GT is the only team that has officially qualified for the playoffs and MI the only one that has been officially eliminated from the playoffs race. Here is what the playoff possibilities of IPL 2022 look like right now:
* MI is out of the reckoning for a playoff spot
*CSK’s chances of a top four finish on points remain at a low 3.4%, but to stay in contention they need to win their three remaining matches
* CSK’s chances of finishing joint third however are a mere 0.3% and involve a tie of anywhere between four and seven teams at 14 points
*KKR’s chances of making the top four on points remain slim at 5.9% and it can do no better than joint third with anywhere between four and seven teams
*PBKS have a 25% chance of getting to fourth, third or even second jointly but cannot any longer hope to top the points table
*SRH’s chances of finishing in one of the top four slots on points remain at 21.1%. DC’s chances are only marginally higher at 23%. Neither team can top the points table
* The difference in the chances of the two teams despite the same points and number of matches is because of who they face in their remaining matches and how that affects final ranks
*RCB’s chances of making it to one of the top four slots on points stay at 89.6%. At worst, they’ll finish sixth on points
*RR’s chances of a top-four finish remain at 95.9%. They can do no worse than sixth even if they lose all their remaining matches
*LSG in its first IPL season is certain to get to one the top four slots on points after the league stage. But they could lose out on the playoffs if it loses its remaining matches. That would leave it on 16 points and a possible four-way tie for third spot or a two-way or three-way tie for fourth spot
* GT, also in its first IPL season, has ensured qualification and can do no worse than a three-way tie for second spot in which it ends up fourth on net run rate or a clear third spot
* In short, bet on LSG, GT, RR and RCB making it to the playoffs with PBKS, DC and SRH, in that order, having a relatively small chance of displacing RR or RCB in the playoffs race
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all the current 8,192 possible combinations of results with 13 matches remaining in the league stage. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then look at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 8,192 possible result combinations, RR finish first to fourth on points in 7,856 combinations. That translates to a 95.9% chance. We do not take net run rates or “no results” into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.
Come back for our updated predictions Thursday (May 12) morning, which will take into account the results of Wednesday’s match.
TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making the playoffs. As of the morning of Wednesday, May 11, GT is the only team that has officially qualified for the playoffs and MI the only one that has been officially eliminated from the playoffs race. Here is what the playoff possibilities of IPL 2022 look like right now:
* MI is out of the reckoning for a playoff spot
*CSK’s chances of a top four finish on points remain at a low 3.4%, but to stay in contention they need to win their three remaining matches
* CSK’s chances of finishing joint third however are a mere 0.3% and involve a tie of anywhere between four and seven teams at 14 points
*KKR’s chances of making the top four on points remain slim at 5.9% and it can do no better than joint third with anywhere between four and seven teams
*PBKS have a 25% chance of getting to fourth, third or even second jointly but cannot any longer hope to top the points table
*SRH’s chances of finishing in one of the top four slots on points remain at 21.1%. DC’s chances are only marginally higher at 23%. Neither team can top the points table
* The difference in the chances of the two teams despite the same points and number of matches is because of who they face in their remaining matches and how that affects final ranks
*RCB’s chances of making it to one of the top four slots on points stay at 89.6%. At worst, they’ll finish sixth on points
*RR’s chances of a top-four finish remain at 95.9%. They can do no worse than sixth even if they lose all their remaining matches
*LSG in its first IPL season is certain to get to one the top four slots on points after the league stage. But they could lose out on the playoffs if it loses its remaining matches. That would leave it on 16 points and a possible four-way tie for third spot or a two-way or three-way tie for fourth spot
* GT, also in its first IPL season, has ensured qualification and can do no worse than a three-way tie for second spot in which it ends up fourth on net run rate or a clear third spot
* In short, bet on LSG, GT, RR and RCB making it to the playoffs with PBKS, DC and SRH, in that order, having a relatively small chance of displacing RR or RCB in the playoffs race
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all the current 8,192 possible combinations of results with 13 matches remaining in the league stage. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then look at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 8,192 possible result combinations, RR finish first to fourth on points in 7,856 combinations. That translates to a 95.9% chance. We do not take net run rates or “no results” into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.
Come back for our updated predictions Thursday (May 12) morning, which will take into account the results of Wednesday’s match.
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