IPL qualification scenarios: How things stand for nine teams in playoff contention

Indian Premier League (IPL) enters its last week of league matches and not one team has been confirmed of a playoff spot. With nine matches left, nine teams are still in mathematical contention to make the next stage. The only team out of the equation are Delhi Capitals who were pushed away from the race on the weekend by Punjab Kings.

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Here is a lowdown of how things are stacked for nine IPL teams that can make the playoffs:

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Gujarat Titans (12 matches, 16 points)

Remaining matches: vs SRH (15 May in Ahmedabad), vs RCB (21 May in Bengaluru)

GT have been on the cusp of booking the IPL playoff spot for a while now but haven’t made it mathematically certain just yet. A win will confirm their place in the next stage of the competition. Not just that, it will also ensure a top-two finish which will allow them two chances at making the IPL final.

However, if they lose both matches and results are unfavourable in other games, CSK and LSG could leapfrog GT and four teams – GT, MI, RCB and PBKS – could be a battle at 16 points. Gujarat’s net run rate (NRR) of +0.761 does help their chances in that scenario unless they suffer massive losses.

Chennai Super Kings (13 matches, 15 points)

Remaining matches: vs DC (20 May in Delhi)

After their defeat to KKR, CSK are still not in the playoffs. A win against Delhi in Delhi on Saturday will assure them of a top-four spot with 17 points. But it might not be enough for a top-two finish. DC, out of contention now, can play party poopers if they beat CSK and other teams finish on more than 15 points. As things stand, five teams can finish on 15-plus points. However, even if CSK lose, they could make it in third if results help out.

Mumbai Indians (12 matches, 14 points)

Remaining matches: vs LSG (16 May in Lucknow), vs SRH (21 May in Mumbai)

MI are in the right frame of mind at the right time. With four wins in five matches, Mumbai are peaking at the right time in the IPL. Wins over LSG and SRH will guarantee them a top-two finish. Win one of the two and they get to 16 points which could see them in a tussle over the NRR tie-breaker or not depending on results in other matches. If they lose both, chances become tough since three teams will be on 14 or more points. And Mumbai’s 14 points, coupled with NRR (-0.117) getting worse, will see them fight with four other teams for the last spot.

Rajasthan Royals (13 matches, 12 points)

Remaining matches: vs PBKS (19 May in Dharamsala)

Royals were thrashed by 112 runs by RCB and that has significantly damaged their NRR, besides, potentially, their morale. The NRR has gone from an impressive +0.633 to +0.140. They could still qualify if they beat Punjab and other results fall in their favour. The best scenario for RR is if RCB, LSG and PBKS lose their last two, and if SRH lose at least one of their matches against GT and MI. In that case, fourth place will see a battle between RR and KKR where Royals would be better off on NRR.

Lucknow Super Giants (12 matches, 13 points)

Remaining matches: vs MI (16 May in Lucknow), vs KKR (20 May in Kolkata)

LSG can qualify for the playoffs with a win in the two remaining matches but would need to rely on results elsewhere to help them out. There is another possibility where GT, CSK, MI, RCB and PBKS can all finish on 16-plus points to dash LSG’s hopes. But then again, win both and Lucknow Super Giants can avoid this chaos.

Royal Challengers Bangalore (12 matches, 12 points)

Remaining matches: vs SRH (18 May in Hyderabad), vs GT (21 May in Bengaluru)

RCB’s thumping win over RR have lifted them to fifth on the IPL points table, and helped their NRR from -0.345 to 0.166. Even if RCB win their two remaining matches, they’re not assured of qualification for the IPL playoffs. But with the win over Royals and the potential wins in the last two matches, RCB will be in a better position than MI and PBKS who could also finish on 16 points.

However, if Bangalore lose one of their two remaining matches to stay on 14 points, they’d need several results to go their way. If it does come to it, the massive NRR bump from the win over Royals could be decisive.

Kolkata Knight Riders (13 matches, 12 points)

Remaining matches: vs LSG (20 May in Kolkata)

KKR kept themselves alive in the competition by beating CSK on Sunday night. Yet, they have a small chance of finishing in the top-four by the end of things next Sunday night. A win over LSG at the Eden Gardens on Saturday will take them to 14 points. But they would need results elsewhere to progress. Kolkata need to hope not more than three teams go beyond 14 points. That could happen if LSG lose their last two matches, and if RCB and PBKS lose at least one of their remaining matches. As many as four teams could vie for the solitary spot with 14 points. In such a case, the NRR comes into the picture. KKR are on -0.256, and they have only one game to improve that.

Punjab Kings (12 matches, 12 points)

Remaining matches: vs DC (17 May in Dharamsala), vs RR (19 May in Dharamsala)

PBKS are one of six teams who can finish with 16-plus points this season. For that they need to beat Delhi and Royals and do it by handsome margins. Of the six teams that can score 16-plus points, Punjab have the worst NRR (-0.268). If they lose one of the two matches, they can reach 14 points which could lead to a four-way battle for the last spot.

Sunrisers Hyderabad (11 matches, 8 points)

Remaining matches: vs GT (15 May in Ahmedabad), vs RCB (18 may in Hyderabad), vs MI (21 May in Mumbai)

SRH are second from bottom and with three games in hand, can get to 14 points. That would keep them alive but they’d need LSG to win their two remaining matches which would have GT, LSG and CSK on 14-plus points and MI, PBKS and SRH could all remain on 14 points. However, if LSG lose both, then fourth place would be a battle between SRH, PBKS and KKR. Either way, NRR will come into the picture. With that, SunRisers need to focus on the margins of their potential victories considering they have the worst NRR at the moment.

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