It’s Painfully Obvious Who’s to Blame for New York Knicks’ Regression

Amanda Loman/Associated Press

Bing Bong!

That was the rallying cry for New York Knick fans after their team opened the 2021-22 season with a double-overtime win against the Boston Celtics. They spilled into the streets acting as if their team had won the championship. “F–k Trae Young” was chanted; even Tom Brady caught a stray.

There has not been much for Knicks fans to celebrate since then. Julius Randle’s game has regressed. The additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier have not improved the offense. Their young talent has not been given an opportunity to develop. There have been a lot of factors in New York’s downfall, but the biggest is Tom Thibodeau.

Coaches are often scapegoated, but Thibs is not being scapegoated—he is the leading cause for the team’s 25-34 record. New York has gone 3-13 in its last 16 games and is sitting 12th in the Eastern Conference.

Thibodeau’s mistakes are costing the Knicks games, and they should also cost him his job at the end of the season.

Lack of Offensive Identity

Thibodeau is considered a defensive genius. He was Doc Rivers’ top defensive assistant when the Boston Celtics won the championship in 2008. Then when he became a head coach in the NBA, his teams were known to lock down defensively.

The offense has often been an issue, and that is the biggest problem with the Knicks. Their offense was exposed in the playoffs in their five-game series versus the Atlanta Hawks in the first round last season, as everything came down to Randle needing to produce in isolation sets. They rarely ran multilayered plays—it would be a pick-and-roll into an isolation for Randle with the hope he could make something happen. 

After that flameout, one would assume Thibs would go back to the drawing board to help cultivate an offensive identity. But that hasn’t happened. Randle’s step back offensively is part of the reason for the team’s struggles, but Thibs has not put him in a position to succeed.

The Knicks are still overly reliant on Randle. A good majority of their offense is triggered by him, such as the play below against the Charlotte Hornets when he brought the ball up the court, came off a Fournier screen and settled for a fadeaway. Zero passes were made, and the attempt was taken with 10 seconds on the shot clock:

(Randle Miss vs. Charlotte)

The Knicks run other offensive sets, but there is no consistent identity for them to hang their hat on. According to Synergy Sports, their halfcourt offense is 26th in points per possession at 0.935. Their 108.4 offensive rating ranks 25th.

It is OK for Thibs to be a defensive-minded coach, but why not bring in an offensive-minded assistant? It would not be that different than when he was Rivers’ defensive coordinator. Simply put, the Knicks offense stinks, and that’s on Thibodeau.

Clutch-Game Debacles

The offensive woes are bad enough, but the Knicks’ record in close games is just crushing. In games with a five-point differential in the last five minutes, New York is 13-18. Its offense goes into the tank, and its defense becomes a turnstile. The Knicks have a minus-22.1 net rating in these close games, tied for 28th.

In late-game situations, Thibs has yet to show any creativity to get his team a good look. Down two against the Cleveland Cavaliers with 1.7 seconds left, he drew up a play that had RJ Barrett coming off a screen to the strong-side corner and Randle coming off an Immanuel Quickley screen to get to the ball. There were no other layers to this, and the Knicks had to settle for a contested 35-footer from Randle that never had a chance:

(NYK End-of-Game Play)

For the season, according to Synergy Sports, Thibodeau’s after-timeout plays ranked 23rd in the NBA with 0.9 points per possession. Those plays are an opportunity for coaches to have a direct effect on the action.

It gets even worse: In New York’s Monday loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Thibodeau blew through his timeouts in horrific fashion. With 1:07 left in regulation and New York up four, Thibs called a timeout and then challenged an obvious foul at the behest of Fournier:

(Fournier Foul)

Then with 39 seconds left, Quentin Grimes was called for a foul with the Knicks up two. Thibs responded by calling his last timeout to challenge that call. He was eventually informed he already used his challenge and could not take the timeout back:

(Thibs TO)

That timeout would have been useful after the Thunder tied the game with 5.5 seconds left. The Knicks could have advanced the ball and set up a play but instead had to settle for Randle bringing it up and going one-on-one…again:

(Randle Miss vs. OKC)

The Knicks would go on to lose in overtime.

The Knicks have blown huge leads in the span of 11 days. They blew a 21-point lead to the Los Angeles Lakers, a 23-point lead to the Damian Lillard-less Portland Trail Blazers and a 28-point lead to the Brooklyn Nets, who did not have Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving or Ben Simmons.

Player Development

23-year-old Obi Toppin (left) averages 15.1 minutes per game, fewer than 36-year-old Taj Gibson at 18.1.John Minchillo/Associated Press

The Knicks have some interesting young talent on their roster, but it does not matter if Thibs is not going to give them a chance to play.

Obi Toppin struggled in his rookie year but showed flashes of promise. This season he has come back with an improved drive and has been a solid player. In his 15.1 minutes per game, the Knicks have a net rating of plus-eight points. Toppin’s play energizes Madison Square Garden more than any player.

Quickley had a strong rookie campaign for New York but has struggled to find consistent minutes this season. He has only played more than 20 minutes once in the last five games, and though he is averaging slightly more minutes than he did last season, he has a lower usage rate. However, New York is still plus-5.7 when he is on the court.

These are two young players who have proved to be positive forces for the Knicks, and yet Thibs cannot find consistent minutes for them. In the loss to Brooklyn, Quickley was 7-of-10 from the field in 21 minutes. Toppin had eight points and four rebounds in 11 minutes.

Fournier played 31 minutes, and the Knicks were minus-12 points when he was on the floor. Taj Gibson played 25 minutes, and New York was minus-14 points when he played. Thibodeau’s habit of constantly going to his veterans is not just hurting the development of these young players but also the team.

Stubborn Thibs

Thibs is a stubborn coach who often burns his players out, and Barrett’s injury is the latest example. In a blowout loss to the Denver Nuggets on Feb. 8, he suffered a sprained left ankle in the last 30 seconds after playing 35 minutes.

Just another case of Thibodeau running his players ragged.

In mid-January, the Knicks traded for Cam Reddish, along with Solomon Hill and a 2025 second-round pick. It cost New York Kevin Knox II, who was already out of the rotation, and a protected 2022 first-round pick from Charlotte.

It was a move that Thibodeau was reportedly against, according to Marc Berman of the New York Post. Since the trade, 22-year-old Reddish has only played in eight games and has averaged just 11.4 minutes.

Cam ReddishDavid Zalubowski/Associated Press

Reddish’s talent is debatable, but the front office gave up a draft asset to get a look at a young player, and no one has been able to see how well he can perform. It makes things tricky for team president Leon Rose, as Reddish is eligible for a rookie extension after this season.

More than anything, this shows a crack in what was once thought to be an aligned front office and coaching staff. Rose was Thibodeau’s agent before he became the Knicks president and eventually hired him to coach the team.

A lot has gone wrong in New York, and many of the issues start and end with Thibodeau. He has yet to put an offensive identity in place. The team is one of the worst performers in close games. The Knicks have blown multiple 20-point leads in less than two weeks. And their young players who have shown to be capable of producing are not getting opportunities to develop.

The NBA world got a glimpse of what the Garden could look like when the Knicks were good last season. It is fun when New York is good. The fans are as passionate as any base out there and are dying to celebrate in the streets again. But as long as Thibodeau is the coach, there will not be much to celebrate. That is why at the end of the season the Knicks should part ways with him.

Mo Dakhil spent six years with the Los Angeles Clippers and two years with the San Antonio Spurs as a video coordinator, as well as three years with the Australian men’s national team. Follow him on Twitter, @MoDakhil_NBA.