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Brandon Dill/Associated Press
One of the best parts of every NBA season is witnessing young stars make a leap, oftentimes fulfilling (or surpassing) lofty predraft expectations.
This can take a few years, of course, as players grow into their bodies, learn how to break down a defense or step into new roles that are more conducive to their success.
When identifying players who are making the leap to star status, there’s only two criteria.
- Player has previously never been named an All-Star.
- Player is enjoying the best season of his young career while producing eye-popping numbers.
With that in mind, these five guys are all off to sizzling starts to the 2021-22 campaign and could be heading to Cleveland in February as a result.
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Matt Kelley/Associated Press
The first of two Hornets on this list, Miles Bridges is the most surprising potential All-Star this season.
Perhaps fueled by not being able to agree to a rookie extension this past offseason, Bridges is already making Charlotte regret not signing him to anything less than $25 million a year, a number he could be in line to surpass this summer.
The 23-year-old forward has nearly doubled his scoring average, going from 12.7 points per game a year ago to 24.1 while shooting 37.1 percent from beyond the arc and adding 8.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.0 blocks. The only other players averaging at least 24.0, 8.0 and 3.0 and shooting 37.0 percent or better from three this season are Kevin Durant and Nikola Jokic, putting Bridges in some pretty good company.
These aren’t empty stats either. The Hornets have improved by a whopping 20.6 points per 100 possessions with Bridges on the floor, placing him in the 93rd percentile of all players, per Cleaning the Glass.
Bridges’ leap has been a combination of skill and opportunity, as he’s once again become a full-time starter in Charlotte with P.J. Washington now in a reserve role. The Hornets are using him as an offensive hub instead of just letting him feed off LaMelo Ball. He’s running 5.0 isolation plays per game, an increase from just 1.8 in 2020-21, according to Second Spectrum (h/t Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer).
Overall, just 58.2 percent of Bridges’ shots this year are coming off assists, compared to 75.4 percent the year before. If opponents give him too much space, Bridges has become a good enough three-point shooter to make them pay. If they play too closely, his athletic 6’7″, 225-pound frame can get by them and throw down some of the most jaw-dropping dunks in the league today.
While his fast start may not be sustainable, Bridges has deserved some All-Star attention in the early going.
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Sarah Stier/Associated Press
Following a nice jump in play from his freshman to sophomore NBA seasons, RJ Barrett is once again taking a step forward in Year 3 for a really good New York Knicks team.
Over his last four games, Barrett is averaging 26.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and shooting 56.1 percent overall and 56.0 percent from three. His overall average of 19.1 points on 49.1 percent shooting are both career highs, and it seems like only a matter of time before Barrett surpasses Julius Randle as the alpha in New York.
Still just 21 years old, Barrett has somehow flown under the radar despite being the No. 3 overall pick in the 2019 draft and going to perhaps the most basketball-crazed city in the world. This has been a blessing in a way for Barrett, who was terribly inefficient as a rookie.
With good size on the wing at 6’6″ and 214 pounds, Barrett has the length to pull up and knock down shots over defenders, who now have to play him honestly to stop potential drives. The third-year veteran shot just 37.1 percent on drives to the basket as a rookie, a number that’s jumped to 56.3 percent this season.
He’s also being smarter with his shot selection. He’s attempting long two-pointers (16 feet or more) just 2.7 percent of the time (down from 6.9 percent last season) and has increased his three-point attempt rate from 29.2 to 42.9.
Barrett has good defensive potential as well. He’s had good performances when matched up with players like Jayson Tatum and Zach LaVine and will continue to draw difficult assignments when sharing the floor with defensively-challenged players like Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier.
If Barrett becomes a 25-point-per-game scorer (which he could as early as this season), there should be plenty of All-Star appearances in his future.
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Andy Clayton-King/Associated Press
A scoring machine in a linebacker’s body, Anthony Edwards is tied for 16th in scoring this season (23.9 points per game) after finishing tied for 49th as a rookie.
His presence means defenses can no longer collapse on Karl-Anthony Towns for fear Edwards will find a lane and receive an open pass before tomahawking a dunk on someone’s head.
With his size and strength (6’4″, 225 lbs), Edwards is a nightmare to try to stop in transition, shooting 64.7 percent from the field and scoring 1.3 points per possession. He’s gotten to the rim more often this year (32.2 percent of all shots coming within three feet) and is sinking 63.3 percent of those looks.
After showing improvement toward the end of last season, Edwards still needs to work on his three-point shot, one that’s connecting just 30.8 percent of the time in 2021-22. For now, the Wolves would rather see Edwards drive to the basket more often.
“It’s one of the most efficient things that we do, that he can do too,” head coach Chris Finch said, per Chris Hine of the Star Tribune. “It creates not just shots for himself at the rim or, hopefully, free throws. But kickout opportunities are wide-open. … It’s a huge part of what our offense is about. He is the best at it on our team. When we’re not doing it enough, it really affects how we want to play.”
While Edwards is recording 11.9 drives per game—a higher average than his rookie season—he ranks 28th in the NBA. Given his quick first step and overall strength to send defenders bouncing off him, Edwards can become even more dangerous by focusing on getting to the basket more.
But simply having him on the court has made a difference.
Edwards’ swing rating of plus-20.0 points per 100 possessions ranks in the 92nd percentile in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass. The 20-year-old will be an All-Star with some improved shot efficiency and selection.
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Matt Kelley/Associated Press
The reigning Rookie of the Year is showing growth in Year 2.
LaMelo Ball was one of the most creative passers from the moment he stepped onto an NBA court, and that hasn’t changed. No-look alley oops? No problem. Full-court, underhanded flick-of-the-wrist transition passes? Say no more. Ball is one of the best in the league at making a difficult pass look far too easy, finding windows in a defense that most players wouldn’t even consider.
One question surrounding Ball coming into the draft was his ability to create his own offense, especially with an outside jumper that was far from silky smooth.
Thus far, the 20-year-old has answered those inquiries, averaging 19.4 points and shooting 40.0 percent from three on a whopping 7.2 attempts per game. While his three-point shot looked to be a major weakness of his game coming into his rookie season, Ball has turned it into a formidable offensive strength.
Even though his usage has seen a bump this season (26.1 to 28.6 percent) with former backup point guard Devonte’ Graham now on the New Orleans Pelicans, Ball has cut down on his turnover rate (16.3 to 12.8 percent), a sign he’s seeing the floor better and making smarter reads on offense.
Ball may never be an elite scorer like others on this list, but with him on the floor, Charlotte is scoring 112.8 points per 100 possessions. When he sits, this number falls to 104.2.
The next step in his evolution will be getting to the line more often (just 18 free-throw attempts through nine games) and adding muscle to his 6’6″, 180-pound frame better absorb contact in the paint.
Quickly becoming a League Pass must-watch, Ball could be an All-Star as early as this season.
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Ringo H.W. Chiu/Associated Press
Of all the players on this list, Ja Morant looks like the safest bet to be an All-Star this season.
A talented scorer and passer, he has made a huge leap in Year 3.
His 27.0 points per game are tied with DeMar DeRozan for fourth in the NBA after he finished just 51st (19.1 points) a season ago. His efficiency numbers thus far (52.2 percent shooting, 36.6 percent from three) are career highs, with Morant making and taking more three-pointers after struggling from deep a year ago (30.3 percent).
The 6’3″ point guard is nearly impossible to stop in isolation, as he’s quick enough to blow by defenders and athletic enough to finish in or around the big men near the basket. His 1.37 points per possession in isolation is the second-highest mark in the NBA after Christian Wood (1.42) and makes for a healthy 12.4 percent of his offense.
Of course, simply playing iso ball is far from Morant’s style, per ESPN’s Zach Lowe:
“As I’ve written before, Morant is (even as he scores more) the rare young superstar who dominates without bending everything to his will. He doesn’t play like someone who cares about the Grizzlies being ‘his team.’ Morant is happy to get off the ball and work as a turbo-charged cutter. He cuts selflessly, knowing he may just end up sucking in the defense and unlocking an open look for someone else.“
Heading into play Friday, Memphis was 5-3 even after trading Jonas Valanciunas and getting little from Jaren Jackson Jr. The Grizzlies’ success is thanks primary to their young floor general.
While Morant can still improve defensively, his incredible offensive production (eighth in the NBA with 7.4 assists per game to go along with his scoring) will make him a first-time All-Star, especially if Memphis stays in the playoff picture.
Stats accurate heading into play Friday and via NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
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