MLB’s Biggest Overachievers and Underachievers of 2021

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Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Expectations vary every season for different players and teams. One of the more fun exercises after a season ends is to evaluate how well they measured up to the expectations, whether they fell short or succeeded.

The National League West, for example, was always supposed to be competitive. It’s the way in which it was competitive, and which team was most competitive that shocked a lot of people.

There were also players who established a reputation after being relatively anonymous before 2021.

So let’s look at the overachievers and underachievers of the season with the prior expectations in mind.

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Nick Wass/Associated Press

Mancini’s numbers aren’t necessarily enough to win AL Comeback Player of the Year, but the idea that he could be a productive, every day Major League player a year removed from a cancer diagnosis is phenomenal.

Mancini slashed .255/.326/.432, none of which were career-lows but were all under his career averages. The Baltimore Orioles tied for the worst record in MLB (52-110) and stood alone with the worst run differential (-297).

Mancini, however, playing in 147 games after being diagnosed with stage 3 colon cancer in March 2020, can only be viewed as a success story.

The Seattle Mariners’ Mitch Haniger potentially made a better case on the field for the comeback award, but Red Sox manager Alex Cora’s comments before their season-opening series finale against Baltimore resonates.

“He should be the Comeback Player of the Year. He can hit .330 or .180 and he’s the Comeback Player of the Year already. I know there are other guys coming back from injuries, but to come back from [colon cancer] is amazing.”

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Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

We’ve gone over how underwhelming the AL Central was this year behind the Chicago White Sox, but the Minnesota Twins were the biggest underachievers in the American League.

The Twins, who were projected to finish right behind the White Sox with a preseason win total of 88.5, finished last in the AL Central at 73-89.

The Twins could have at least contended for a wild-card spot, but they were nowhere near the conversation. The team’s season ended not long after it started because of a horrible April.

The Twins were never more than three games over .500, and that was back on April 8.

Minnesota’s pitching staff unraveled with Jose Berrios being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays and Kenta Maeda struggling early before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Signing J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker to one-year deals was bad enough to move on from of both of them.

That Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey is reluctant to say they are rebuilding says a lot about the team and where it wants to be.

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David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Garcia skipped the line and his performance this season clearly shows why. The Astros rookie right-hander made an Opening Day roster for the first time this year after showing glimpses in limited time during last year’s COVID-19 pandemic-shortened season.

With a 2.92 ERA in five appearances, the Astros staff had enough faith in Garcia to start him against the Tampa Bay Rays in last year’s ALCS.

But before making his Major League debut in 2020, Garcia had not pitched above Class A. He came out of nowhere a year ago and quietly became one of the best pitchers on one of baseball’s best teams. While Rays infielder Wander Franco may be more deserving of AL Rookie of the Year, Garcia is also a strong candidate for the award.

Garcia posted a 3.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 155.1 innings pitched this season. The first two statistics are third and fifth, respectively, among qualified rookies, while he has pitched more than any other first-year player.

Lance McCullers Jr. and Framber Valdez are starting the first two games of the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox. Expect to see Garcia, who you likely had never heard of a year ago, in Game 3.

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Ashley Landis/Associated Press

Preseason expectations of the Angels challenging the Astros in the AL West fell flat after the team was decimated by injuries. Losing perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout to injury was devastating, but the team did not play up to its potential. 

Buyer’s remorse on the Anthony Rendon contract would seem reasonable, considering his underwhelming 2020 season and inability to stay on the field in 2021. 

Rendon signed a seven-year deal worth $245 million after a strong 2019 World Series performance for the Washington Nationals. 

But Rendon slashed .240/.329/.382 in 58 games this year. The Angels finished 18 games behind the Astros, and their emerging potential MVP Shohei Ohtani stated last month that while he likes playing for the Angels, he wants to win. They haven’t had a winning season since 2015, or made the playoffs since 2014, even with arguably baseball’s two best players.

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Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Here is another Garcia who seemingly came out of nowhere. But while Luis Garcia is the third-best starter on a playoff team, Adolis Garcia plays for a Texas Rangers team that was difficult to watch this year. 

The case could be made that Adolis Garcia was the only part of the Rangers worth watching this year, especially after slugger Joey Gallo was traded to the New York Yankees and ace Kyle Gibson to the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Garcia led qualified rookies in RBI (90) and was second in home runs (31). Prior to the All-Star game, Garcia’s .840 OPS led the five rookies who had 300 at-bats or more at the time. 

Garcia’s performance declined after an incredible start to the season, but let’s not punish him for his own unexpected success.

After being by the St. Louis Cardinals to the Rangers for cash considerations two years ago, he then went hitless in his six at-bats last season. 

To go from that to 30+ homers and 90 RBI is quite the improvement.

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Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Two years ago, the Nationals were shocking the world with an improbable World Series run.

Now Juan Soto is the only Nationals player left from the 2019 World Series champions who is still making a meaningful contribution to the team, which finished 65-97.

The 22-year-old was one of the few bright spots for Washington, leading the majors with a .465 on-base percentage and 145 walks.

But the Nationals are no longer a contender after a midseason fire sale that saw them part ways with Max Scherzer and Trea Turner.

The Nationals finished 19.5 games under their preseason win total, according to DraftKings.

But Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo called this process a “reboot” and said this was the most frustrating season they’ve had.

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Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

The Mariners may not be in the playoffs, but it’s hard not to acknowledge them making the most of this season. 

They weren’t content to wait on contending in Seattle. It’s been long enough for the Mariners, who hold the longest active postseason drought in baseball—they last made the playoffs in 2001.

Scott Servais deserves AL Manager of the Year for leading the team past the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels as contenders in the West. 

The Mariners (90-72) went over their preseason win total this season by 17.5 games, according to DraftKings. 

A solid bullpen helped the Mariners in this overachieving season. Their relievers ranked fourth in WAR (7.0), per FanGraphs. 

They also did this despite trading closer Kendall Graveman to the Astros, which caused a short clubhouse uproar at the time. 

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John Hefti/Associated Press

Expectations for this club were through the roof at the beginning of the season. They had all the makings of a dominant lineup, led by NL MVP candidate Fernando Tatis Jr. 

Trading for aces Blake Snell and Yu Darvish was supposed to bolster what was already a talented Padres squad built to contend with the Los Angeles Dodgers for AL West supremacy. 

Then the Padres collapsed. 

They were a guaranteed sub-.500 club several days before the season ended and played no part in the drama that was this past weekend. 

Instead, it was San Francisco Giants that re-emerged as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ true rivals in the division, and the St. Louis Cardinals putting on a historic second-half run ensured a wild-card spot. 

The Padres were 17 games over .500 on Aug. 10, then posted an MLB-worst 13-34 record at the end. 

San Diego finished at 79-83, well under its 94.5 win total set by DraftKings.

Padres manager Jayce Tingler called the underachieving season “shocking” and “miserable,” which about sums it up for this group.

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D. Ross Cameron/Associated Press

No team came close to the Giants in shattering their preseason win total projection. DraftKings put the Giants’ over/under win total at 75.5. 

The Giants basically said, “How’s a league-best and franchise-record 107 wins sound to you, bettors?”

The closest any other team came to topping its total by 31.5 games was Seattle, which exceeded its preseason win total by more than 17.5.

Brandon Crawford had his best season as a hitter. Buster Posey gave the Giants a renaissance performance. Kevin Gausman, who was brought back on a one-year, $18.9 million qualifying offer, had his first All-Star season. Lefty Jake McGee was a good signing who had 31 saves before a right oblique strain landed him on the injured list.

The Giants brass deserves a lot of credit for sticking with a core group that had not been to the postseason since 2016, or won a playoff series since 2014.

Perhaps underrated in the overachievement is outlasting their battle with the Los Angeles Dodgers, still arguably the game’s most talented team, and avoiding the single elimination wild-card scenario against a red-hot St. Louis Cardinals team.

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Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

I’m old enough to remember when Cody Bellinger was a really good baseball player. It’s still somewhere in there, but we didn’t see much of it in 2021. 

After the 2019 season, Bellinger boasted .305/.406/.629, 7.8 WAR line on his way to a National League MVP at 24 years old. 

Those numbers plummeted to .240/.302/.237, -0.8 in 2021. Bellinger hit 47 home runs in 156 games two years ago and 12 home runs in 56 games last year. He homered 10 times in 95 games played this year. 

Injury has been a factor with Bellinger, but offensively he has been worse in every way, continuing a two-season decline that looks nothing like his MVP form. 

Fortunately for the Dodgers, they are deep enough to survive something like this.