NBA Draft Big Board: Updated Top 50 Prospects

AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

10. AJ Griffin (Duke, SF, Freshman)

9. Jalen Duren (Memphis, C, Freshman)

8. Keegan Murray (Iowa, PF, Sophomore)

7. Shaedon Sharpe (Kentucky, SG, Freshman)

6. Bennedict Mathurin (Arizona, SG/SF, Sophomore)

5. Dyson Daniels (G League Ignite, PG/SG, 2003)

4. Jaden Ivey (Purdue, PG/SG, Sophomore)

3. Jabari Smith Jr. (Auburn, PF, Freshman)

2. Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga, PF/C, Freshman)

1. Paolo Banchero (Duke, PF, Freshman)

Explaining Banchero over Holmgren, Smith

Shot-creation, off-the-dribble playmaking and physicality give Banchero an edge over Smith on our board. And while Holmgren has a case as the class’ highest-upside prospect, the risk of drafting a 195-pound big and limited creator feels too great at No. 1.

Over Duke’s last 11 games, Banchero shot 45.0 percent from three and averaged 4.2 assists. His shot-making, point-forward skills and ability to take over late in games became too assuring.

Regardless, a lack of strength shouldn’t stop Holmgren from handling in transition, stretching the floor, finishing and shot-blocking. And there is no real risk at all with Smith, arguably the best shooting freshman big man the draft has ever seen.

Daniels’ High Floor

Daniels might not have obvious All-Star potential, but we’re valuing his floor and the chances he can play a Marcus Smart-like role, only as a bigger guard/forward who can facilitate at the point, shot-make from the wings and guard four positions. He turned 19 years old in March, oozes maturity, continues to grow physically and possesses easy-fit versatility.

Love, Hate with Duren

No ball-handling or shooting range makes it tough to fall in love with Duren. But as we’re seeing in the playoffs, centers like Robert Williams III can still make a serious impact. And Duren, who’s still 18 years old, possesses a spectacular physical profile for such a big leaper. Even if he never develops a shot or go-to post game, his finishing and defense could be enough to raise a team’s ceiling. There is also a decent chance he develops into a plus-passer, particularly as a short roller.