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Please don’t let the rush to rank everything distract you from the fact that the NBA is enjoying a historically close and entertaining MVP race.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic continue to headline the tippy top of a field that, if we’re being honest, is barren of wrong answers. Anyone hoping for clarity in Monday night’s matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers was treating to a heaping pile of none. Embiid has the slightly glitzier stat line, but he and Jokic essentially dueled to a draw. And Denver won.
This all makes deliberating between Embiid and Jokic and Giannis incredibly riveting. And also frustrating as hell.
The bottom of the ballot is equally tough. Different entries seem to crack the top five every couple of weeks. It happened last time. It is happening this time. And it will probably happen next time, too.
As always, this MVP hierarchy represents a snapshot, aiming only to look at who should win the Maurice Podoloff Trophy if the season ended right now. And with this in mind, let us now get back to ranking everything.
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Luka Doncic’s Previous Ranking: 7
Ja Morant’s Previous Ranking: 6
Some will insist that bouncing DeMar DeRozan for Luka Doncic and Ja Morant is unchecked recency bias. It’s not. At least it’s not meant to be.
Cases for Doncic (better play) and Morant (missed time with a left knee injury) received midseason booms, but their values have spanned much of the year. Just look at the offensive volume and efficiency comps to DeRozan:
- DeMar DeRozan (64 games): 28.0 PPG, 5.1 APG, 52.0 2PT%, 34.5 3PT%, 58.6 TS%, 31.9 USG%
- Luka Doncic (52 games): 28.0 PPG, 8.6 APG, 52.6 2PT%, 33.9 3PT%, 56.1 TS%, 37.1 USG%
- Ja Morant (55 games): 27.5 PPG, 6.7 APG, 53.7 2PT%, 34.1 3PT%, 57.5 TS%, 33.7 USG%
DeRozan has racked up 400-plus minutes more than Doncic or Morant. That matters. So do his crunch-time heroics. And this late in the season, when splitting hairs at the No. 5 spot, so does his minor slump since our last MVP meetup.
Morant operates as the offensive hub for the Western Conference’s second-best team. On-off splits will prefer DeRozan, but the Memphis Grizzlies go as Ja does. His electrifying speed, passing and selfless demeanor are infectious, and he is without a co-star safety net on the same level as Zach LaVine.
Doncic has been on an incomprehensibly scorching heater for, like, more than one-quarter of the season. And he has quietly made room for others—namely Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie—within the Dallas Mavericks’ half-court.
Fifth place is matter-of-preference material. That’s not a bad thing. Top to bottom, this race is that close.
Honorable Mentions: 10. Jayson Tatum, 9. Trae Young, 8. Devin Booker, 7. DeMar DeRozan
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Previous Ranking: 4
Including Stephen Curry within the top five has devolved into a minority opinion. Many will see a no-brainer opportunity to bake in DeMar DeRozan and at least one of Luka Doncic and Ja Morant by displacing the Golden State Warriors’ megastar, even if it’s only because he was slumping once upon a time.
I can’t get there.
Even as the Warriors started to fracture and fissure in their dog days without Draymond Green, Curry gave them a steadying force who, much of the time, single-handedly kept them above water. He has the numbers to stick in this discussion—27.0 points, 5.0 assists, 63.3 percent on twos, 42.4 percent on threes since the last MVP ladder—but his impact extends well beyond those traditional measures.
The Golden State offense needs Green’s passing, downhill decision-making and IQ. It can not function without Curry’s magnetic pull.
Citing his gravity is a tired trope, but there is also no overstating it. The Milwaukee Bucks had Jrue Holiday face-guarding Curry for much of the Warriors’ Saturday night win. No other player commands that much attention, to the point he creates his own offensive ecosystem without ever touching the ball or launching a ton of shots.
It is no accident Golden State’s net rating when Curry plays jumps by 14.8 points per 100 possessions—the third-highest mark in the league among players who have logged at least 1,200 minutes. And nobody in this top five has amassed more court time. That indispensability combined with that availability was enough to land him here.
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Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
Previous Ranking: 3
Giannis Antetokounmpo put together the kind of in-between-MVP-ladders stretch that leads you to ponder inflammatory thoughts.
Is this really a three-person race between him, Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic? Or should it just be Giannis and Jokic? And how is Giannis not the obvious No. 1?
Once more, with feeling: Giannis is working off one helluva six-game span, through which he averaged 32.3 points, 5.0 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks while downing 61.7 percent of his twos. These are ridiculous numbers, much like those on his career resume. We mustn’t become numb to this behavior because it’s commonplace for him.
Diminishing Giannis’ case because of the Milwaukee Bucks’ struggles against good teams isn’t fair. The defense has been circling the panic button for a minute or two, but his capacity to rescue blown possessions by appearing, seemingly, out of thin air is the most genuine form of hope. (Also: Brook Lopez is back!).
Feel free to nudge Giannis up to No. 2, at the expense of you-know-who. I’m fairly certain this is the last ladder on which Giannis will be outside the top two.
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Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
Previous Ranking: 2
Joel Embiid’s MVP credentials have not yet been softened by the arrival of another top-10 player.
Not yet, anyway.
Prior to James Harden’s debut, Embiid was averaging 29.6 points and 4.5 assists with 61.0 percent true shooting and a 37.7 usage rate. Since The Beard first put on a Philadelphia 76ers uniform, The Process is at 31.2 points and 3.6 assists with 60.4 percent true shooting and a 36.8 usage rate.
This nowhere near amounts to a drop-off. If anything, Embiid’s numbers are deflated by uncharacteristically rocky performances from the floor against the Miami Heat (when Harden didn’t play March 5) and Brooklyn Nets (Thursday).
Constant parades to the free-throw line will grate on some. And there may invariably come a time when Embiid’s offensive volume—and, by extension, MVP stock—is repressed by Harden’s own ubiquity. But head coach Doc Rivers has tossed the offense upon Embiid’s back when he plays without Harden, and the two have not looked awkward together for longer than spurts.
More than that, Harden’s eleventh-hour arrival didn’t change the context of the rest of the year. Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey and Seth Curry (now with Brooklyn) are still the teammates Embiid has spent the most time beside this season. That’s different from Giannis Antetokounmpo’s having Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday as two of his three most used running mates, and it provided the separation, however wafer thin, to keep Embiid in second place, even if uncomfortably so.
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Bart Young/Getty Images
Previous Ranking: 1
In the interest of honesty, I’m running out of unique ways to make Nikola Jokic’s MVP case.
This space has already debunked the arguments most likely to be used against him. It has come to the defense of his, well, defense. It has discussed his near-total dominance in catch-all metrics. And it has focused on his bandwidth to ferry the Denver Nuggets to the fringes of contention despite a supporting cast not healthy enough to warrant it.
What else is there?
Maybe it’s his efficiency across all levels. He receives ample shine for his passing and shooting, but he has one of the league’s most lethal touches from in-between range. Among 142 players who have attempted at least 50 shots from five to nine feet from the basket, Deandre Ayton (63.2 percent) is the only one converting his at a higher clip than Jokic (61.5 percent)—and the former’s mark comes on significantly less volume.
More attention should be paid to Jokic’s bailout offense, as well. No one has more made field goals inside the final seven seconds of the shot clock than Jokic (127).
Oh, yeah: And then there’s his durability. Jokic has missed seven games this year…after appearing in all 72 last season…amid a truncated schedule…following the shortest offseason in history. He has now missed just 27 games in his career. This year’s MVP race is by no means a lifetime achievement award. And it doesn’t have to be. Jokic’s body of work in the short term merely aligns with his value in the long term. Both are unreal.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Tuesday’s games. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by NBA Math’s Adam Fromal.
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