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Nick Wass/Associated Press
Every year, a handful of NBA teams defy expectations in ways that go beyond merely exceeding preseason record projections. They break out, making bettors who took the over on their win total happy, sure, but also ascending to a new level in the league hierarchy.
We’re talking about theoretical cellar-dwellers refusing to be pushovers, playoff absentees vaulting into contention and up-and-coming teams coming all the way up. The teams on this list are in a variety of developmental phases and reside in different strata of the league. The only exclusions will be teams that finished in the top four of their conference last season.
It’s hard to level up from that height.
That said, every team here has a shot to ascend.
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Brynn Anderson/Associated Press
The Atlanta Hawks are only eligible because of a technicality after finishing fifth in the East with the exact same 41-31 record as the fourth-seeded New York Knicks. That’s fine; it gives us an opportunity to discuss one of the league’s most intriguing up-and-comers.
Trae Young is one of maybe a half-dozen players in the league who basically assures his team will score at elite levels when he’s on the floor, regardless of the personnel around him. The Hawks finished ninth in offensive efficiency last year but scored at a rate, 118.2 points per 100 possessions, that was higher than the Brooklyn Nets’ league-leading overall figure when Young was in the game.
The 2021-22 Hawks will field an offense at least as good as last year’s, and there are plenty of good reasons to believe they’ll bump their defensive rating, 18th this past season, up toward the top 10.
Clint Capela led the league in rebounding last season, and he’s the anchor on that end. A healthier De’Andre Hunter, who looked like a blossoming three-and-D star before knee issues effectively ended his season in late January, will be a massive help. He’s the shutdown one-on-one stopper and a key to any switching Atlanta might want to employ.
Onyeka Okongwu, whose recovery from shoulder surgery is progressing faster than expected, flashed seriously elite defensive potential in limited minutes as a rookie. If he’s able to contribute in a rotation role, the Hawks’ defensive ceiling lifts considerably. His rangy athleticism and quick feet could allow for five-position switching without compromising rim defense. Capela will still eat up most of the minutes, but Okongwu could be a grossly overqualified reserve weapon, strangling the life out of opposing second units.
Price in moderate, experience-driven growth from the Hawks’ cadre of young guards and wings, plus John Collins’ postseason embrace of a dirty-work role, and Atlanta could become one of the league’s most balanced operations.
Sure to be dominant on offense as long as Young is healthy and poised to make progress on D, the Hawks could be a sneaky long-odds pick to win the East and return to the conference finals. Only this time, they won’t arrive as plucky, happy-to-be-here overachievers. They’ll be contenders.
That’s the most consequential kind of breakout there is, the one that propels a team to a title shot.
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Jacob Kupferman/Associated Press
This is mostly a bet on LaMelo Ball being special—a true franchise-altering talent who makes an impact on winning much earlier than most players can.
The Charlotte Hornets were ever so slightly better, at least as measured by net rating, when Ball wasn’t on the floor last year. So this wager on a Hornets breakout is grounded in at least as much blind faith as evidence.
Still, Ball’s transformational presence is hard to deny. He invigorates teammates, keeps them moving at pace with eyes wide and hands up, knowing that if they spring open, Ball will deliver the rock. His impact is a little like Nikola Jokic’s with the Denver Nuggets; teammates cut harder and engage more deeply with every possession because they know successfully breaking loose from a defender is often all it takes to score.
That dynamic affects everything from morale to attention to strategic detail. It’s a big deal.
Ball averaged 15.7 points, 6.1 assists and 5.9 rebounds in 51 games as a rookie while putting concerns about his defense and shooting to rest. He’s big enough at 6’6″ and smart enough to wreak havoc on D if he commits to playing that end, and he should be among the perennial leaders in steals. With a 35.2 percent clip from deep, including a 39.3 percent mark on catch-and-shoot opportunities, Ball cleanly knocked his biggest perceived predraft weaknesses all the way off the board.
A healthy season from Gordon Hayward, a repeat of Terry Rozier’s stellar 2020-21, Miles Bridges showing continued growth as a shooter and ball-handler, new center Mason Plumlee’s passing from the center spot, PJ Washington’s spacing—all factors that could contribute to one of the best offenses in the NBA…or at least one that blows away last year’s No. 23 ranking on that end.
Even if Charlotte doesn’t break out by becoming a clear playoff team, it’ll almost certainly surge from an entertainment perspective. Ball’s style and a roster built to feed off his facilitation will make the Hornets a highlight factory like few others.
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Jeff Chiu/Associated Press
The Detroit Pistons have a great chance to defy projections that have them pegged as one of the two or three worst teams in the league.
As was the case with LaMelo Ball and the Hornets, Cade Cunningham is the key here. If he’s the same kind of instant organization-rejuvenator, the Pistons should be in business. Considering Cunningham is driving into the professional ranks towing a semi-trailer full of “can’t-miss” evaluations, it’s not so far-fetched to imagine him being the rare rookie who immediately takes over a team and actually helps it play better.
Even if Cunningham is only a break-even first-year player, the Pistons have a couple of guys on their second go-round who figure to be much better than that.
Live-wire center Isaiah Stewart has a clear path to major playing time with Plumlee gone, and his defensive energy and shot-blocking could imbue the Pistons with a rugged identity on that end. His intensity and physical style could be tone-setting, with the added bonus of mid-range accuracy on offense that may signal high-volume three-point shooting is right around the corner.
Saddiq Bey seems like a lock to be a quality three-and-D wing for the next decade, and Killian Hayes might know which way is up in his sophomore season. If those two take on slightly larger roles as scorers and playmakers, it should free up Jerami Grant to scale back some of his shot-creating responsibilities and redirect resources to the defensive end, where he established his early-career reputation as a menace (in the best way).
Is Detroit going to be a playoff team? Probably not. But sticking around in the play-in race for the bulk of the season would shock most forecasters, and that’s a real possibility* with a young, underrated roster.
*As long as they don’t tank late in the year.
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Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press
The Golden State Warriors were 15-50 two years ago and missed the playoffs this past season. But if everything goes right, they could find themselves in the Western Conference Finals, which means the Finals are a legitimate possibility, which means a title is also in play.
We’re at least 10 steps too far down the most optimistic path for a team that has heaps of downside concerns.
Among them: Stephen Curry could get hurt, which would basically drop the curtain on the season. Klay Thompson could give them nothing after two years off. Draymond Green’s lack of shooting could get worse. Andre Iguodala might be washed. The kids—James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody—may all look overwhelmed. Jordan Poole might crumble under the weight of massive playmaking expectations as the only guy not named Steph who can reliably create shots off the dribble. The bench could stink.
Clearly, the Dubs are miles from a sure thing. But think of the positive flip side.
Curry played like an MVP last season and could do it again, this time alongside a version of Thompson, who could return at 80 percent of his peak and trend upward as the year progresses. If Green’s defense holds, and he logs more minutes at center (with Juan Toscano-Anderson also earning spot minutes in that role), Golden State could spend the bulk of the season using the small lineups that drove last year’s 15-5 finish.
If one or two of the Wiseman-Kuminga-Moody triumvirate can help the rotation, if Otto Porter Jr. is healthy, if Iguodala has 10 good minutes in him every other night, if Poole is the real deal he appears to be…well, this is a very dangerous team. One with more championship experience to lean on than most, and one that could capitalize on a Western Conference that feels much less punishing than usual.
Lastly, excuse the small sample, but we know with a high level of certainty that the Dubs can put combinations on the floor that’ll work well. Curry, Green and Poole posted a plus-19.5 net rating in 165 minutes last year. Throw Thompson and either Iguodala or Andrew Wiggins in there, and you’ve got a five-man group that should dominate at the end of games.
The Warriors were the fifth-best defense in the league last year, and it won’t take much to get the offense up toward the top 10 as long as Curry stays relatively healthy. While understanding how many variables separate the Warriors from true contention, you just can’t rule out a return to that status.
Call it a re-breakout for the three-time champs.
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Steve Dykes/Associated Press
We hit some compelling lineup data in the case for a Warriors breakout, and we’re going back to that same well for the Portland Trail Blazers.
This team was beyond a handful with Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Norman Powell, Robert Covington and Jusuf Nurkic on the floor together last season, running up an obscene plus-14.2 net rating with that personnel grouping. That quintet only logged 784 possessions because of injury and Powell’s midseason arrival via trade. It should see more time this coming season.
Numbers and lineups aside, the Lillard trade noise is less intrusive now with the superstar expressing commitment to the team. That can only help, though McCollum might struggle if chatter about him headlining a trade for Ben Simmons persists. Of course, if the Blazers add Simmons, you could argue it would actually increase their breakout potential.
It feels unpopular to say so, but Simmons is still a really good player. He’s better than McCollum in a vacuum, particularly so on a Portland team that has too many resources tied up in a small backcourt. He’d bring balance to the lineup, elite defense and, probably, a chip on his shoulder that could further galvanize this group.
If Simmons isn’t inbound, trade acquisition Larry Nance Jr. is a fine consolation prize. His defensive disruption and passing from a frontcourt spot (ideally center in some supercharged lineups) will create new looks for the Blazers on both ends.
Portland was 42-30 a year ago, so it’s not like we’re starting from zero here. But this core won 53 games in 2018-19 and reached the conference finals. It took a couple of breaks to create that level of success, but this current roster is at least as good as the one that made it so far two years ago, and maybe the change from Terry Stotts to Chauncey Billups will generate the same kind of “new voice, old personnel” bump Steve Kerr and Mike Budenholzer enjoyed with the Warriors and Bucks, respectively.
Portland has a superstar, a devastatingly effective lineup and relatively low expectations that undersell its breakout capacity. The Blazers have a real chance to finish in the West’s top three.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
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