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NCAA Bracket 2022: Odds for Every Sweet 16 Team to Win NCAA Championship

0 of 16

    Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren

    Gonzaga’s Chet HolmgrenCraig Mitchelldyer/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    Just to get to the 2022 Elite Eight, Michigan will need to avenge its loss to Villanova in the 2018 national championship. After that, it’s probably a rematch from earlier this season in which the Wolverines lost by 18 to Arizona. Should they happen to upset both of those set of Wildcats, it might be Kansas waiting for them in the Final Four. It’s arguably the toughest draw facing any of the remaining 16 teams.

            

    Reason to Buy

    A lot has changed since the preseason, but Michigan opened the year in the AP Top 5 and has shown off that championship-level potential with more and more regularity in the past six weeks. The Wolverines have won seven games against NCAA tournament teams just since Feb. 10.

            

    Reason to Sell

    The talent is there, but the consistency hasn’t been. Their longest winning streak of the season was only three games, and even that was back in January. And even while winning those seven key games in the past six weeks, they also peppered in four regular-season losses by a combined margin of 44 points. Also, Michigan has neither a great defense nor an above-average three-point offense.

            

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    The young big men continue to thrive. Getting big numbers from Hunter Dickinson is a given. The big lefty has been considerably better than last season when he was a consensus All-American. The variables are freshmen Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate, both of whom are probably going to be first-round draft picks in a few months, but both of whom have been wildly inconsistent all season long. (Case in point: Houstan played 32 minutes with no points and three rebounds against Tennessee.) But when all three of those guys show up, look out.

            

    Title Odds: 0.8 percent

1 of 16

    Saint Peter's Doug Edert

    Saint Peter’s Doug EdertMatt Rourke/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    Unfortunately, the Peacocks are fresh out of teams from Kentucky to knock out of the NCAA tournament. But maybe they can cause similar problems for the likes of Purdue, UCLA and Gonzaga. Regardless of the path, though, one thing’s for certain: This team will not be intimidated.

         

    Reason to Buy

    Saint Peter’s will punch you right in the mouth and then smile as you return the favor. Peacocks games this year feature a combined average of 40.7 personal fouls and 46.1 free-throw attempts. Getting into any sort of offensive rhythm against this team is just about impossible. Also, Shaheen Holloway’s play designs after timeouts have been money.

         

    Reason to Sell

    They’ve shot the ball pretty well thus far in the tournament, but this was not a good offense during the regular season. This is the worst offense still standing, both in terms of turnover percentage and effective field-goal percentage. And while neither Kentucky nor Murray State was able to make Saint Peter’s pay from the free-throw line, there are plenty of teams remaining who could.

         

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    Miracles happen. Forget about winning a national championship—Saint Peter’s is trying to become the first team seeded 13th or worse to reach the Elite Eight. If the Peacocks can get past that glass ceiling, we can start taking them more seriously as a title threat. But if they keep playing their physical game and keep getting clutch buckets from Doug Edert, perhaps they can continue shocking the world.

         

    Title Odds: 0.05 percent

2 of 16

    Miami's Charlie Moore and Jim Larranaga

    Miami’s Charlie Moore and Jim LarranagaBrynn Anderson/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    Not only did Miami break the bracket with two straight upsets, but it benefited from Iowa State breaking the bracket, too. The Hurricanes will now get a tough-but-winnable game against the Cyclones in the Sweet 16 to reach what would be the first Elite Eight in program history. While a subsequent win over Kansas would be unlikely, it was also unlikely that George Mason would knock off No. 1 seed Connecticut back in 2006. Jim Larranaga might remember that game.

         

    Reason to Buy

    Miami owns the turnover margin. The Hurricanes committed a total of seven turnovers in their first two tournament games while forcing 31 on defense. They’re also surprisingly good at scoring in the paint, given their lack of size, but Charlie Moore and Co. are just so darn crafty around the rim and create space with a lot of backdoor action.

         

    Reason to Sell

    Miami gets owned in rebound margin. The Canes are plus-24 in turnovers, but they’re minus-20 in rebounds, which wasn’t even as bad as expected, considering how big both USC and Auburn are in the paint. It shouldn’t be a problem against Iowa State, but it would eventually be their undoing if they end up needing to go through No. 1 Kansas, No. 1 Arizona and No. 1 Gonzaga to win it all.

         

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    The defense remains on point, and the threes start falling. It’s almost impossible to believe, but the Hurricanes are just 4-of-29 from three-point range thus far in the dance. They weren’t elite from distance during the regular season, but they usually make better than seven triples per game. If that happens and they can keep forcing a dozen more turnovers than they commit, never say never.

         

    Title Odds: 0.25 percent

3 of 16

    Arkansas' Jaylin Williams

    Arkansas’ Jaylin WilliamsFrank Franklin II/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    To be the best, you’ve got to beat the best. And Gonzaga is on deck for the Razorbacks. If Arkansas manages to get past the Bulldogs, it could be a steady diet of blue bloods the rest of the way: Duke in the Elite Eight, UNC/UCLA in the Final Four and Kansas in the title game.

         

    Reason to Buy

    The Razorbacks force a high turnover percentage, and lead guard JD Notae can score in bunches. They have also won 85 percent of games played since mid-January and felt like one of the hottest teams in the country before laying an egg against Texas A&M in the SEC tournament. Arkansas has also made more free throws than any other team in the country.

         

    Reason to Sell

    Save for a pair of victories over an LSU team that had offensive woes all season long, Arkansas did not have a single win away from home against a tournament team until this past Thursday. This is a poor shooting team that has been especially susceptible to brick fests outside of Fayetteville. The Razorbacks are also undersized, except for Jaylin Williams (6’10”).

         

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    Notae goes into “Kemba Walker Mode.” That didn’t happen in the first two rounds, as he needed 34 field-goal attempts to score 35 points. But Notae is more than capable of getting hot and going for 25 points, five assists and four steals on any given night. If he can flip that switch on and keep it there for four more games, everything else could fall into place for a magical run.

         

    Title Odds: 0.5 percent

4 of 16

    Michigan's Eli Brooks

    Michigan’s Eli BrooksMichael Conroy/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    Just to get to the 2022 Elite Eight, Michigan will need to avenge its loss to Villanova in the 2018 national championship. After that, it’s probably a rematch from earlier this season in which the Wolverines lost by 18 to Arizona. Should they upset both of those set of Wildcats, it might be Kansas waiting for them in the Final Four. It’s arguably the toughest draw facing any of the remaining 16 teams.

         

    Reason to Buy

    A lot has changed since the preseason. Michigan opened the year in the AP Top 5 and has shown off that championship-level potential with more and more regularity in the past six weeks. The Wolverines have won seven games against NCAA tournament teams just since Feb. 10.

         

    Reason to Sell

    The talent is there, but the consistency hasn’t been. Michigan’s longest winning streak of the season was only three games, and even that was back in January. And even while winning those seven key games in the past six weeks, they also peppered in four regular-season losses by a combined margin of 45 points. Also, Michigan has neither a great defense nor an above-average three-point offense.

         

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    The young big men continue to thrive. Getting big numbers from Hunter Dickinson is a given. The big lefty has been considerably better than last season when he was a consensus All-American. The variables are freshmen Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate, both of whom are probably going to be first-round draft picks in a few months. They’ve also been wildly inconsistent all season long. (Case in point: Houstan played 32 minutes with no points and three rebounds against Tennessee.) But when all three of those guys show up, look out.

         

    Title Odds: 0.8 percent

5 of 16

    Iowa State's Izaiah Brockington

    Iowa State’s Izaiah BrockingtonCharlie Neibergall/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    It’ll be Iowa State vs. Miami in a rare Sweet 16 showdown between double-digit seeds. The sleeper that emerges from that one will likely run into Kansas in the Elite Eight with one of Arizona, Villanova or Houston likely lurking in the Final Four.

            

    Reason to Buy

    The Cyclones ended up with a No. 11 seed, but with Sunday’s upset of Wisconsin, they have now won 11 Quadrant 1 games. They went 0-4 against Baylor and Kansas, but all four losses were by single digits. These dudes can play, and they can especially play on defense, where they can force turnovers and guard the perimeter like nobody’s business.

            

    Reason to Sell

    This offense is abysmal. Iowa State didn’t even reach 60 in either of its opening wins over LSU and Wisconsin, it was held to 41 by Texas Tech on March 10 and managed just 36 in a loss to Oklahoma State on March 2. The Cyclones do have several guys who can score in bunches, but getting even two of them to show up on the same night has been a season-long challenge.

            

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    It dominates the turnover battle and hits some dang shots. Iowa State beat Iowa by 20, beat full-strength Memphis by 19 and has now won a total of eight games against teams that earned single-digit seeds. The Cyclones have the potential to beat anyone if their shots are falling.

            

    Title Odds: 1.0 percent

6 of 16

    North Carolina's R.J. Davis

    North Carolina’s R.J. DavisLM Otero/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    It’ll be a blue-blood showdown with UCLA in the Sweet 16, but goodness knows from there. It should be Purdue, but maybe Saint Peter’s will become the first No. 15 seed to reach the Elite Eight. But if the Tar Heels make it all the way to the Final Four, maybejust maybethey will face Duke in the NCAA tournament for the first time ever.

            

    Reason to Buy

    After all the struggles that North Carolina had in the first three-plus months of the season, it seems that mid-February home loss to Pittsburgh was a wake-up call. The Heels have gone 8-1 since then and finally figured out how to play something resembling defense away from home. They have also been scoring at will thus far in the tournament.

            

    Reason to Sell

    North Carolina has almost no depth whatsoever, and calling the perimeter defense “lacking” would frankly be generous. In a weird way, the latter helps the former. Because the defense doesn’t try to force turnovers, the Heels rarely battle foul trouble. But if it comes up, they could be in trouble. And even if it doesn’t, they could get torched by three-pointers.

            

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    Brady Manek and at least one of the guards stay scorching hot. In the opener against Marquette, that guard was Caleb Love (23 points, six triples). On Saturday against Baylor, it was R.J. Davis (30 points, five triples). But if one of those guys scores 20, Manek scores 20 and Armando Bacot does his usual 18 points and 13 rebounds thing, that’s going to be tough to beat.

            

    Title Odds: 1.4 percent

7 of 16

    Providence's Jared Bynum

    Providence’s Jared BynumElsa/Getty Images

    The Road Ahead

    Seems like everyone under the sun had Iowa penciled into this spot in the bracket one week ago, but it will instead be Providence drawing No. 1 seed Kansas in the Sweet 16. Should the Friars topple the Jayhawks, Providence’s title chances get interesting in a hurry, because they should be slightly favored against either Iowa State or Miami in the Elite Eight.

            

    Reason to Buy

    If knowing how to win close games is a learned skill and not just a statistical outlier, Providence sure has that skill, boasting an 18-2 record in games decided by 10 points or fewer. If nothing else, the Friars will not be lacking confidence in those pivotal late-game moments. This veteran bunch also spends a lot of time at the charity stripe, making nearly as many free throws this season (490) as its opponents have attempted (501).

            

    Reason to Sell

    Providence can win close, but it can also lose ugly. The Friars lost by 18 to Virginia, by 27 to Creighton and by 32 to Marquette. This is an average shooting team that has lost the turnover battle more often than it has won it, and they aren’t exactly dominant on the glass. Providence fans hate the predictive metrics for never once suggesting that this is a top 25 team, but there’s a reason the metrics say that.

            

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    Luck remains on their side. Even in Providence’s 79-51 second-round smashing of Richmond, Shot Quality suggests that the Spiders should have won 66-63. Friars faithful get triggered when you call this team lucky, but when it’s repeatable, luck is the best thing to have in your corner in this cockamamie tournament. And that isn’t to say that this team is untalented. Rather, this is a good team with good fortune.

            

    Title Odds: 2.5 percent

8 of 16

    UCLA's Johnny Juzang

    UCLA’s Johnny JuzangCraig Mitchelldyer/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    UCLA probably wasn’t too happy on Selection Sunday to see it was getting shipped all the way out to Philadelphia for the second weekend, but it can’t be too upset now that it is the No. 4 seed in a region that lost both its No. 1 (Baylor) and its No. 2 (Kentucky). The Bruins will draw a hot-but-flawed North Carolina in the Sweet 16 and probably Purdue in the Elite Eight before hopefully setting up a 2021 Final Four (and November 2021) rematch with Gonzaga.

            

    Reason to Buy

    For one, it’s March, and UCLA evidently no longer knows how to lose NCAA tournament games in this month. But the Bruins are also on the very short list of teams that rank top 15 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom. This is a well-rounded team full of veterans who know how to succeed in this tourney. Plus, the bracket sure has broken in their favor.

            

    Reason to Sell

    UCLA’s biggest strength is also its biggest weakness: mid-range jumpers. No one seems to know how to defend the low-percentage 15-18 foot pull-ups that have been phased out of the game, so when they’re falling for the Bruins, they can comfortably pull away from a very good team like Saint Mary’s. But they’re still the worst shots from a points-per-attempt perspective, and UCLA is liable to barely survive against a team like Akron when those jumpers aren’t going through the net.

            

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    Johnny Juzang continues to thrive. He had been struggling over the past month, but he sprang to life in a big way in the second half against the Gaels. He only scored 14 points in the game, but it sure felt like he propelled them to victory. If he keeps playing like the preseason first-team All-American that he was, UCLA can win it all.

            

    Title Odds: 4.0 percent

9 of 16

    Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

    The Road Ahead

    There has been quite a bit of carnage in this tournament, but none of it in the West Region. The Red Raiders will have to face Duke in the Sweet 16 to set up a likely rematch with Gonzaga in the Elite Eight. Should they get their revenge on the Zags, they would face the East Region champion, possibly UCLA.

            

    Reason to Buy

    This defense is exquisite. Suffocating. Fierce. Pick a word, really. Texas Tech held Notre Dame to 53 points on Sunday, which was the fourth time in the past six games that it held an opponent to 55 or fewer. (And, let’s be honest, the Red Raiders would’ve held Montana State to 55 instead of 62 if that game hadn’t been over by halftime.)

            

    Reason to Sell

    Great as the defense is, this mediocre offense sure can make games interesting that shouldn’t be. During that aforementioned stretch of defensive performances, Texas Tech lost 52-51 to Oklahoma State, beat Oklahoma 56-55 and was down 52-49 against Notre Dame with less than two minutes to go. The Red Raiders don’t shoot well from distance, and they often shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers.

            

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    Defense wins championships. Texas Tech leads the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, and it’s not particularly close. So, it stands to reason that the old adage is a big fan of the Red Raiders. They’ve already held both Gonzaga and Kansas below 70 points in a game this season, and maybe they can do it again.

            

    Title Odds: 5.0 percent

10 of 16

    Houston's Kyler Edwards

    Houston’s Kyler EdwardsKeith Srakocic/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    The Sweet 16 matchup with Arizona is going to have a Final Four feel with the winner becoming/remaining arguably the top candidate to represent the South and Midwest regions in the national championship. By no means does that mean it will be easy for the subsequent two rounds, though. Both Villanova in the Elite Eight and Kansas in the Final Four would be major challenges.

            

    Reason to Buy

    As far as KenPom is concerned, Houston is the best team in the country not named Gonzaga. A lot of people questioned this team’s legitimacy, considering it lost Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark for the year right before beginning life in a not-good AACa life that resulted in two losses to Memphis and a loss to SMU. But the metrics tried to tell us all year long that this is one of the best all-around teams out there. Maybe the 15-point win over Illinois will change the perception.

            

    Reason to Sell

    Backcourt depth is just about nonexistent. Freshman Ramon Walker can give the Cougars 12-20 minutes off the bench, but he’s the only reserve option they have and he’s not a scoring threat (zero points in seven of last 10 games). This is also a woeful free-throw shooting team, should we ever get to the point where the Cougars are trying to salt away a lead at the charity stripe.

            

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    Winning 50/50 balls wins championships. There might not be a single NBA player on Houston’s roster, but this team will not be outworked by any foe. The Cougars are going to block shots, they’re going to force turnovers, they’re going to grab offensive rebounds and they’re going to wear you out. They might lose to a better shooting team, but it’s going to take a 40-minute fight to knock these guys out.

            

    Title Odds: 6.0 percent

11 of 16

    Purdue's Jaden Ivey (23) and Trevion Williams (50)

    Purdue’s Jaden Ivey (23) and Trevion Williams (50)Morry Gash/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    Up next for Purdue is this year’s Cinderella story, Saint Peter’s. Assuming the Boilermakers can set the clocks to midnight and turn that magical carriage back into a pumpkin, they will then face either UCLA or North Carolina in what would be a fascinating Elite Eight battle. And Purdue would likely be a slight underdog in the Final Four against any team out of the West Region.

            

    Reason to Buy

    Led by Jaden Ivey, Trevion Williams and Zach Edey, Purdue has one of the best offenses in the country. And if you even think about throwing a double team at any of those stars, everyone else on the roster can hurt you from three-point range. They went through some swoons late in the year, but they’ve scored 78 and 81 thus far in the dance and might still be heating up.

            

    Reason to Sell

    Even after solid showings against Yale and Texas in the first two rounds, Purdue still has the second-least efficient defense among the remaining teams, edging out only Miami. If the Boilermakers do make it into the Final Four (let alone win it all), it would be one of the worst defenses to pull it off.

            

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    Ivey and Williams put the team on their back. It was clear from the final 10 minutes against Texas what Purdue is capable of doing when it just allows its two best offensive weapons to do their thing. Yes, get the many other three-point options involved, and of course feed Edey often when he’s in the game. But let Ivey and Williams create and that offense can overcome the defense’s shortcomings and win a title.

            

    Title Odds: 7.5 percent

12 of 16

    Villanova's Collin Gillespie

    Villanova’s Collin GillespieLaurence Kesterson/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    It’ll be preseason AP No. 4 Villanova vs. preseason AP No. 6 Michigan in the Sweet 16, likely to be followed by a Wildcats showdown in the Elite Eight with preseason unranked Arizona. Should Villanova make it out of this region, Kansas is the likeliest opponent waiting in the Final Four.

            

    Reason to Buy

    *Gestures wildly at the 2016 and 2018 national championship banners.* We’ve seen Villanova win this whole thing not once but twice in the past six years. This version of the Wildcats isn’t as relentless on offense as they were in 2018, nor is the defense quite as formidable as it was in 2016. But the turnover-free offense that can make it rain from three-point range and some of the best free-throw shooting in the nation? Yeah, we’ve seen that formula work for Villanova in the dance in the past.

            

    Reason to Sell

    Villanova doesn’t have much size in the paint. Eric Dixon has had a great season, but he’s the only Wildcat 6’8″ or taller. And as a result, Zed Key racked up 11 rebounds (seven offensive) in just 17 minutes of work on Sunday. Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson could have a field day down low in the Sweet 16, and a showdown with Arizona in the Elite Eight could be even more problematic.

            

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    Collin Gillespie and Co. catch fire from deep. Caleb Daniels (40 percent) and Justin Moore (35 percent) can also make it rain from distance, and even Eric Dixon makes better than 50 percent of his rare perimeter shots. But it all starts with Gillespie. If he gets into a groove, Villanova can beat anyone.

            

    Title Odds: 8.0 percent

13 of 16

    Duke's Paolo Banchero

    Duke’s Paolo BancheroBrynn Anderson/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    If Mike Krzyzewski is going to win that sixth national championship, he’s going to need to earn it. Just reaching a 13th Final Four is going to be a major challenge, as he’ll need to go through the nation’s best defense (Texas Tech) and likely the nation’s best offense (Gonzaga) in order to survive the West. Duke’s title odds would be considerably better in any other region.

            

    Reason to Buy

    Well, it’s Duke, and this particular Duke team has a preposterous amount of talent. We’ll have to keep an ear to the ground these next few days to see how serious the ankle injury is that A.J. Griffin suffered late against Michigan State, but the Blue Devils have five possible 2022 first-round draft picks on the roster, plus Jeremy Roach, who makes for one heck of a sixth-best NBA prospect on a roster. When these guys get into a groove, it is a sight to behold.

            

    Reason to Sell

    Perimeter defense has been a major issue for Duke in recent weeks. Dating back to the regular-season ending loss to North Carolina, Duke’s last six opponents have shot a collective 56-of-136 (41.2 percent) from three-point range while committing a total of 44 turnovers. And that almost buried them in the second round against Michigan State.

            

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    Talent reigns supreme. The tandem of Paolo Banchero and Mark Williams can win a battle with any other frontcourt. Griffin could probably beat anyone in a three-point shooting contest. And Roach, Trevor Keels and Wendell Moore Jr. are all equally capable of pulling up from beyond the arc or slashing to the lane for a bucket and/or a foul. That primary six-man rotation should beat any team in the country. But we’ve also seen it lose six times, so who knows?

            

    Title Odds: 8.5 percent

14 of 16

    Arizona's Bennedict Mathurin

    Arizona’s Bennedict MathurinDenis Poroy/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    If Arizona got pushed around by TCU on Sunday night, the Wildcats could be in for a world of pain in the Sweet 16 against Houston. There are going to be a bunch of good games on Thursday and Friday, but that one might take the cake. Get past Houston, and Villanova should be waiting for Arizona in the Elite Eight. Then, maybe Kansas in the Final Four and Gonzaga in the title game. It’s not an easy path by any means. Coin flips left and right.

            

    Reason to Buy

    If you like Gonzaga’s chances of winning it all, you have to also like Arizona’s, because they play such a similar style of fast-paced offense with dominance in the paint on both ends of the floor. You might even prefer Arizona’s chances to Gonzaga’s because Benn Mathurin is a way better individual creator of offense than anything that Gonzaga has in its backcourt.

            

    Reason to Sell

    Considering Kerr Kriisa’s ankle looked like something out of a Saw movie not too long ago, it’s little surprise that he shot just 1-of-10 from three-point range in the second round against TCU. But if he doesn’t come around by the time Arizona faces Houston, this offense isn’t as frightening to deal with. Arizona is also a little more turnover-prone than you would hope to see from a title contender.

            

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    Mathurin and Christian Koloko dominate. At this point, it’s fair to put Mathurin and Koloko on equal footing with Purdue’s Jaden Ivey and Trevion Williams. Except Arizona has a much better defense than Purdue and has a considerably higher ceiling as a result. But the Wildcats can win it all if they ride those two stars (and get Kriisa back to delivering a few three-point daggers per game).

            

    Title Odds: 12.0 percent

15 of 16

    Kansas' Remy Martin

    Kansas’ Remy MartinCharlie Riedel/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    It might be up to Kansas to prove the predictive metrics right. The Jayhawks should be the heavy favorite in the Sweet 16 against Providence, and then again in the Elite Eight against either Iowa State or Miami. With the exception of maybe Purdue, they have the easiest path to the Final Four. Although a likely path of Arizona-Gonzaga in New Orleans still keeps this team’s title chances at a little below 20 percent.

            

    Reason to Buy

    Remy Martin missed a large chunk of this season with a knee injury, but he is back and looking like the guy who we thought was going to be Kansas’ MVP in the preseason. He scored 35 points in the first two rounds, giving what was already a very good Kansas team even more of a boost.

            

    Reason to Sell

    The defense has been better in recent weeks, but the Jayhawks have been susceptible against penetrating guards throughout the season. In their six losses, those opponents shot a combined 24-of-100 from three-point range, yet they allowed at least 74 points in each of those games.

            

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    David McCormack makes a bigger impact the rest of the way. The big man had a double-double in four of the final seven games of the regular season, plus one more in the Big 12 championship win over Texas Tech, but he hasn’t been that much of a factor thus far. At least two out of Martin, Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun are likely to show up in a big way on a nightly basis, but the Jayhawks still need McCormack to deliver, especially once they start running into teams with legitimate frontcourt weapons.

            

    Title Odds: 17.5 percent

16 of 16

    Gonzaga's Drew Timme

    Gonzaga’s Drew TimmeCraig Mitchelldyer/Associated Press

    The Road Ahead

    After surviving an incredible second-round battle with Memphis, up next for Gonzaga is an Arkansas team that has won 17 of its last 20 games. If the Bulldogs survive the Muss Bus, they’ll get a regular-season rematch against either Duke (lost by three) or Texas Tech (won by 14). After that, who the heck knows which team will survive the topsy-turvy East Region, but Gonzaga would surely be favored in that game.

            

    Reason to Buy

    Gonzaga leads the nation in effective field-goal percentage on both offense and defense, doesn’t commit many turnovers and doesn’t allow many second-chance opportunities. The Bulldogs ran up those numbers a little bit against the bottom half of the West Coast Conference, but this team was clearly one of the top candidates to win it all long before it started blowing out the likes of Pacific, Portland and Pepperdine.

            

    Reason to Sell

    Despite playing in two of the last five national championships, Gonzaga has infamously never won the big one. And there are a lot of people out there who will irrationally refuse to believe this team can win it all until it finally does. The more rational reason to fade the Zags is that they can have some issues on offense against physical teams who consistently get back in transition.

            

    Will Cut Down the Nets If…

    Things finally go according to plan. Gonzaga finished No. 1 on KenPom in both 2017 and 2021, and it was second only to Virginia for the final six weeks of the 2018-19 season. The best team doesn’t always win this single-elimination tournament, but every now and then it should.

            

    Title Odds: 25.0 percent

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