NCAA Tournament 2022: B/R Expert Predictions for Elite 8

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Eric Gay/Associated Press

Eight programs remain in the 2022 men’s NCAA tournament, and the storylines are buzzing as March Madness nears its grandest stage.

In the West Region, the Duke Blue Devils are a single victory over the Arkansas Razorbacks from taking Mike Krzyzewski to the Final Four in his sendoff season. And if the North Carolina Tar Heels can outlast the 15th-seeded Saint Peter’s Peacocks in the East Region, the iconic rivalry will have one final showdown.

Saint Peter’s, though, is seeking its first-ever Final Four appearance—just like the surprising Miami Hurricanes.

While the Houston Cougars are aiming for a second straight trip to the final weekend, the Villanova Wildcats and Kansas Jayhawks are looking to return after a brief hiatus.

Get ready for a wild weekend, folks.

After a preview of each contest, Bleacher Report’s college basketball crew—David Kenyon, Kerry Miller and Joel Reuter—have offered their predictions for the Elite Eight matchups.

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David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Matchup: No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 5 Houston (South Regional)

Details: Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET (TBS) San Antonio

One-Sentence Synopsis: Houston and its lockdown defense is seeking a second straight trip to the Final Four, but offense-driven Villanova stands in the Cougars’ path.

Villanova Wins If: Perimeter shots are dropping. Really, it should be that simple. Houston has forced the nation’s 39th-highest opponent three-point rate, and three NCAA tournament foes are a combined 18-of-66—just 27.3 percent—behind the arc. Villanova, meanwhile, hoists 46.2 percent of its shots from the perimeter and connects at a respectable 36.0 percent.

Houston Wins If: The defense excels yet again. Villanova is comfortable taking a bunch of threes, but Houston is likely to contest them at a higher clip than Jay Wright’s squad usually experiences. If those triples aren’t falling, Villanova will be hard-pressed to find much success on the interior of this stout UH defense.

If I Had to Bet on Something…: Collin Gillespie over 2.5 threes. So far in March Madness, Villanova’s star player has launched 28 of them. Win or lose, the ‘Cats will be living on the perimeter—and they’ll be leaning heavily on Gillespie, a 41.5 percent long-range shooter.

     

Predictions

David Kenyon: Houston

Kerry Miller: Houston

Joel Reuter: Houston

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Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Matchup: No. 2 Duke vs. No. 4 Arkansas (West Regional)

Details: Saturday at 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS) San Francisco

One-Sentence Synopsis: Duke is riding high following Mike Krzyzewski’s 100th career NCAA tournament win, but Arkansas will be similarly confident after eliminating No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga.

Duke Wins If: The outside shooters hit the looks Gonzaga missed. Arkansas fully deserved the victory, yet the Zags straight-up misfired on plenty of open attempts, too. Duke has five players averaging one triple per game, while both Wendell Moore and AJ Griffin are above 40 percent from the perimeter.

Arkansas Wins If: The team continues to create chaos and limits its own. Through three March Madness games, the Razorbacks have only 24 turnovers compared to 37 takeaways. Arkansas is at a distinct size disadvantage, so easy buckets are especially important.

If I Had to Bet on Something…: Duke -4. If the Blue Devils get in foul trouble, that rapidly shifts the game to Arkansas’ favor. Duke, however, is built to exploit the Razorbacks’ offensive inefficiency with a versatile lineup led by freshman Paolo Banchero.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Duke

Kerry Miller: Duke

Joel Reuter: Duke

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Matchup: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 10 Miami (Midwest Regional)

Details: Sunday at 2:20 p.m. ET (CBS) Chicago

One-Sentence Synopsis: Led by former Kansas guard Charlie Moore, Miami has pieced together an incredible run that carries the ‘Canes into a showdown with the top-seeded Jayhawks.

Kansas Wins If: The best offense on the floor reinforces that reality. One-game samples are strange! Kansas certainly might lose. But the Jayhawks have All-American guard Ochai Agbaji, the best player in this matchup. Arizona State transfer Remy Martin, who averaged 7.3 points through the Big 12 tournament, has provided a key surge in March Madness with 19.3 points per contest.

Miami Wins If: Clever defense creates fast-break opportunities. Miami has the nation’s 13th-highest steal rate and fifth-best effective field-goal percentage in transition, per Hoop-Math.com. Kansas’ defense, on the other hand, is 213th in transition.

If I Had to Bet on Something…: Under 150. If the Jayhawks don’t protect the ball, this may be laughably incorrect. However, they’ll be forced to play a slightly slower tempo against Miami’s scramble defense, and the ‘Canes are comfortable easing into a possession if a transition chance isn’t there.

Predictions

David Kenyon: Kansas

Kerry Miller: Kansas

Joel Reuter: Kansas

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Matchup: No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 15 Saint Peter’s (East Regional)

Details: Sunday at 5:05 p.m. ET (CBS) Philadelphia

One-Sentence Synopsis: In a battle of Cinderella stories, Saint Peter’s is aiming to write another wild chapter with a victory over six-time national champion North Carolina.

North Carolina Wins If: The perimeter weapons keep going berserk, which apparently is normal now. Brady Manek and Caleb Love combined for 51 points against Marquette; then Manek and RJ Davis racked up 56 opposite Baylor. Love scorched UCLA for 30 points, scoring 27 of them in a spectacular second half.

Saint Peter’s Wins If: It controls both the tempo and the three-point arc. North Carolina prefers a fast-paced game and buries trifectas at a 36.4 percent clip. Saint Peter’s does not have the offense to keep up with UNC in a high-scoring affair. But this defense—quite clearly—can carry the Peacocks.

If I Had to Bet on Something…: Saint Peter’s moneyline. Like, seriously. At this point, why not? All aboard the bandwagon. Head says UNC, but it’s time for the heart to soar.

   

Predictions

David Kenyon: Saint Peter’s

Kerry Miller: North Carolina

Joel Reuter: Saint Peter’s

         

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