NCAA Tournament 2022: B/R Expert Predictions for Men’s Sweet 16
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Associated Press
Only 15 games remain until the 2022 men’s college basketball national champion is crowned in New Orleans, and we’re back with another batch of predictions and gambling suggestions for the contests coming up on Thursday and Friday.
We’ll save you the trouble of tracking down our success rate in the tournament by simply noting that none of us had either Miami or Saint Peter’s winning a game last week. However, if you bet on everything that I suggested in the first two rounds, allow me to raise a glass to our mutual winnings. It’s not exactly Pappy Van Winkle in a diamond chalice, but any profit through 48 games of this wacky tournament deserves a toast.
For each of the eight Sweet 16 games, we’ll sum up what it would take for each team to win before also offering a spot where you might consider placing a wager. And, for the record, I did bet on everything suggested. That doesn’t mean the suggestions will actually turn a profit, but I do have quite a bit of skin in the game.
Spoiler Alert: I’m a big fan of the overs in this round.
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Abbie Parr/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Arkansas (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS) San Francisco
One-Sentence Synopsis: Few’s Crew looks to knock the Muss Bus off the road to the Final Four.
Gonzaga Wins If: Shooting percentages even remotely play to form. Gonzaga leads the nation in two-point percentage, leads the nation in effective field-goal percentage and ranks 22nd in three-point percentage. Arkansas ranks 150th, 237th and 314th, respectively. Gonzaga is also No. 1 in defensive effective field-goal percentage, while Arkansas is 64th. Make all the SEC vs. WCC arguments you want, but those are facts. Also, it’s not like Arkansas shot well against a nonconference schedule devoid of NCAA tournament teams.
Arkansas Wins If: Physical defense bothers the Zags. Arkansas should be more than content with Gonzaga’s preferred pace of play, and the Razorbacks might pull off the upset if they can get back in transition and get their usual supply of blocks and steals. Of the two, the steals are the more important, because this not-great-shooting offense will need a few fast-break buckets if it wants to score in the 80s. But if Arkansas can just generally make Gonzaga uncomfortable, things will get interesting.
If I Had to Bet on Something…: Gonzaga -9.5. Did you know that six of last year’s eight Sweet 16 games were decided by double digits? That was also true in 2016. And in each of 2017, 2018 and 2019, four of the eight games were blowouts. So if you’re thinking, “I like Gonzaga here, but 9.5 seems like a lot of points to lay in a Sweet 16 game,” it’s not. And unless either JD Notae catches fire or this Arkansas defense somehow holds Gonzaga to 70 points, I just can’t see the upset happening.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Gonzaga
Kerry Miller: Gonzaga
Joel Reuter: Gonzaga
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Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 11 Michigan (South Regional)
Details: Thursday at 7:29 p.m. ET (TBS) San Antonio
One-Sentence Synopsis: It’s a rematch of the 2018 national championship, which Villanova won by 17 in spite of Michigan shooting 65.6 percent from inside the arc.
Villanova Wins If: It continues shooting well from distance. Villanova was 21-of-51 (41.2 percent) from three-point range last weekend. Dating back to the start of the 2013-14 season, the Wildcats are 157-10 when shooting at least 35.0 percent from downtown. And while Michigan’s three-point defense numbers are a bit better than the national average, the Wolverines have a woeful turnover rate and did allow 35 three-point attempts in the first round against Colorado State. Villanova will be able to get shots up, and it is very likely the Wildcats will win if they make 35 percent of them.
Michigan Wins If: It owns the paint like it should. Not only does 7’1″ Hunter Dickinson vs. 6’8″ Eric Dixon look like a substantial mismatch in Michigan’s favor, but 6’11” Moussa Diabate could cause matchup problems for 6’7″ Jermaine Samuels and/or 6’7″ Brandon Slater. Michigan had some major issues defending the paint this season, particularly against Arizona, Illinois, Purdue and Ohio State. But those teams all had a legitimate All-American candidate in the frontcourt, which Villanova does not.
If I Had to Bet on Something…: Over 135.5. Villanova does play at a methodical, snail-like pace on offense, but Michigan has averaged 76.9 points over its last seven games. The spread/total combination suggests this will be a 70-65 game, which feels way too low. In fact, I’d be less surprised if this is more like Villanova’s 89-84 win at Providence, or Michigan’s 93-85 loss to Illinois.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Villanova
Kerry Miller: Villanova
Joel Reuter: Michigan
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John Minchillo/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS) San Francisco
One-Sentence Synopsis: In a perfect microcosm of college basketball, a Duke team with six soon-to-be NBA players and the greatest coach of all time is a slight underdog against a Texas Tech team loaded with guys who transferred from mid-major programs to play under a first-year head coach.
Duke Wins If: It’s a “freedom of movement” game. Duke neither draws nor commits many fouls. It also doesn’t force or commit many turnovers. The Blue Devils prefer an NBA type of game where guys are able to step into jumpers. So if this officiating crew has a quick whistle, that’s a huge advantage for Duke, which struggled in physical games against Miami, Florida State and Virginia earlier this season.
Texas Tech Wins If: It can actually make some jumpers. Duke has a great shot-blocker in Mark Williams, and Theo John isn’t too shabby in that department either. As a result, the Red Raiders will need to hit some shots, which has been a frequent problem this season. They have been held to 60 points or fewer nine times, three of which happened already in March.
If I Had to Bet on Something…: Two same-game parlays. Texas Tech -1.5 and under 137.5 (+275) and Duke moneyline and over 137.5 (+255). Obviously, you can’t win both bets. And if you place a half unit on each bet, if either one hits, after subtracting the loss, the payout will be slightly less than if you just did a straight one-unit bet on any of the four options. But either Duke wins an uptempo game or Texas Tech wins a rock fight.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Texas Tech
Kerry Miller: Texas Tech
Joel Reuter: Texas Tech
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Denis Poroy/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 5 Houston (South Regional)
Details: Thursday at 9:59 p.m. ET (TBS) San Antonio
One-Sentence Synopsis: If ever there has been a case for “resetting” the bracket before the Sweet 16, it’s this national championship-level game between KenPom.com‘s No. 2 and No. 3 teams taking place in a regional semifinal.
Arizona Wins If: “Good Kerr Kriisa” shows up. Since the beginning of December, Houston is 0-4 when opponents shoot at least 38 percent from three-point range. And between Arizona’s three losses and the second-round game against TCU that it arguably should have lost, Kriisa shot a combined 5-of-35 (14.3 percent) from downtown compared to 37.8 percent the rest of the year. If his ankle is in better shape and he gets into any sort of rhythm (both as a shooter and as a passer) against the Cougars, that is a huge plus for the Wildcats.
Houston Wins If: It follows TCU’s blueprint. The Horned Frogs led the nation in offensive rebounding percentage even before they grabbed 20 of them in taking Arizona to overtime Sunday. Well, Houston is No. 3 in offensive rebounding and is drastically better than TCU in basically every category except for free-throw shooting. If the Cougars get back 40 percent of their own misses and render Azuolas Tubelis ineffective like TCU did, they should win easily.
If I Had to Bet on Something…: Houston +1.5. This should be the best game of the entire tournament, and there’s a very good chance I’ll be picking the winner to at least make it to the national championship. If the line were Arizona +1.5, I’d take the extra point in that direction. As is, give me the Cougars to either win or lose by one.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Arizona
Kerry Miller: Houston
Joel Reuter: Arizona
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Michael Conroy/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 15 Saint Peter’s (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS) Philadelphia
One-Sentence Synopsis: This New Jersey-based Cinderella will have the geographical advantage, but will that be enough for Saint Peter’s to overcome Purdue’s substantial size advantage?
Purdue Wins If: It lets the big man eat. Love Jaden Ivey. Love Trevion Williams. But I especially love Zach Edey in this matchup. Saint Peter’s only has one player taller than 6’8″ who has played at all this season, and that guy (Oumar Diahame) has played a total of nine minutes in its last five games. And if at any point Edey is on the floor and neither Diahame nor Clarence Rupert is out there, the big Boilermaker is going to have both a nine-inch height advantage and a nearly 100-pound weight advantage against the Peacocks’ “center.” If Purdue so chooses, Edey could score 40 points.
Saint Peter’s Wins If: It shoots well and bugs the heck out of Purdue with its physicality. Both Kentucky and Murray State were undeniably better, more talented teams than the Peacocks, but the MAAC champions basically irritated those Bluegrass State schools into upsets. And if the Peacocks—who have the depth to play 10 guys, no problem—deal with their size disadvantage by simply fouling Edey and Williams a bunch, Purdue’s big men do shoot a combined 62.8 percent from the charity stripe.
If I Had to Bet on Something…: Over 135.5. Even with Murray State having a dreadful offensive performance and Saint Peter’s shooting just 3-of-13 from three-point range, that game still got to 130. Against an even better Purdue offense, the only way this game fails to eclipse 135 is if Purdue wins by an 80-55 type of score. It probably won’t come right down to the wire, but the Peacocks should be able to keep pace better than that.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Purdue
Kerry Miller: Purdue
Joel Reuter: Purdue
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Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 4 Providence (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:29 p.m. ET (TBS) Chicago
One-Sentence Synopsis: Big 12 regular-season champion takes on Big East regular-season champion for the right to face a double-digit seed in the Elite Eight.
Kansas Wins If: Normal, lethargic Providence shows up. The version of the Friars that seized an early 27-13 lead over Richmond was a rare sight. In each of its 10 games before that, Providence scored 17 points or fewer through the first 10 minutes of action and was typically nowhere close to 40 by halftime. Pull that stunt against Kansas—which has scored at least 19 points in the first 10 minutes of 10 of its last 11 games—and this could be one of those times when Providence quickly finds itself facing a near-insurmountable climb.
Providence Wins If: It dominates in the paint. It doesn’t take threes to beat Kansas. In fact, in its six losses, Kansas’ opponents shot a combined 24-of-100 from downtown. Rather, it was in the paint where the Jayhawks were crushed in those six games, allowing 56.3 percent on two-point attempts with a combined rebound margin of minus-43. That’s not really Providence’s game, but if Nate Watson and Ed Croswell shoulder the load down low, advantage Friars.
If I Had to Bet on Something…: Providence moneyline (+260). I’m picking Kansas to win, but +260 is a little too nice to pass up. This should be a close game throughout, and heaven knows Providence has had a lot of success in close games this season. If you like Providence +7.5, you might as well just go for it here, since the Friars have won every nail-biter they have played against teams not named Villanova.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Kansas
Kerry Miller: Kansas
Joel Reuter: Kansas
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John Locher/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 8 North Carolina (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS) Philadelphia
One-Sentence Synopsis: North Carolina (20) and UCLA (19) have been to more Final Fours than any other program, but only one of these blue bloods will make it to the 2022 Elite Eight.
UCLA Wins If: Its mid-range shots are falling. In Saturday’s win over Saint Mary’s, UCLA shot 17-of-31 (54.8 percent) in the area between the three-point arc and the restricted arc, per ESPN. Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. basically live in what most offenses consider no man’s land. And in games that both of those guys are making those buckets, UCLA is very tough to beat, in large part because the Bruins’ last 12 opponents have averaged just 61.0 points.
North Carolina Wins If: Brady Manek stays hot. North Carolina has won nine consecutive games in which Manek scores at least 13 points and has a year-to-date record of 19-3 when he reaches that mark. And he’s averaging 27.0 in the tournament—this despite missing about 35 percent of Saturday’s game against Baylor after getting ejected for elbowing Jeremy Sochan. If he starts raining in threes (20 made in his last six games), it’ll more than counterbalance UCLA’s mid-range twos.
If I Had to Bet on Something…: Over 141.5 and UNC moneyline (+295 parlay). This might be a terrible call, as I did just point out that UCLA’s last 12 opponents averaged 61.0 points. But you know what? Baylor’s defense was pretty darn good, too, until it ran into the red-hot Tar Heels. And with the exception of the 84-76 loss to Arizona in the Pac-12 championship, it’s not like UCLA has been facing great offenses. UNC stays hot and wins a barnburner.
Predictions
David Kenyon: North Carolina
Kerry Miller: North Carolina
Joel Reuter: North Carolina
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Chris Carlson/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 10 Miami (FL) vs. No. 11 Iowa State (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:59 p.m. ET (TBS) Chicago
One-Sentence Synopsis: Iowa State seeks to become the fourth No. 11 seed to crash the Elite Eight in the past five tournaments, while Miami is hoping to follow 2016 Syracuse’s path of winning by two at Duke in January and somewhat controversially getting into the tournament as a No. 10 seed before reaching the Final Four.
Miami (FL) Wins If: Steals are the story. In terms of steal percentage on defense, these are the two best teams left in the tournament. But while Miami’s backcourt does an excellent job of not committing turnovers, Iowa State coughs up the ball left and right. The Cyclones have yet to commit more than 12 live-ball turnovers in a game this season, but that could change against a Hurricanes defense that already has 22 steals in this dance.
Iowa State Wins If: Poor shooting trumps bad defense. Aside from forcing turnovers, Miami’s defense is terrible. The Hurricanes rank 122nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is the worst of the remaining teams by far. And while Iowa State generally has not shot well this season, it did average 72.0 points in its 10 games played against teams outside the top 75 in AdjDE. The Cyclones average an assist on better than 60 percent of made buckets, so there should be a lot of good ball movement leading to open looks.
If I Had to Bet on Something…: Over 133. I don’t feel great about this one, given Iowa State’s combination of great defense and oftentimes woeful offense. But I’m putting some faith in that 72.0 PPG average just mentioned, as Miami will get a lot of two-point buckets, and there’s a real possibility of overtime to help get us to the goal here.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Miami
Kerry Miller: Miami
Joel Reuter: Iowa State
Advanced stats via KenPom.com unless otherwise noted.
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