NCAA Tournament 2022: March 5 Stock Watch for Men’s Bubble Teams

North Carolina’s Armando BacotGerry Broome/Associated Press

Resume: 22-8, NET: 38, RES: 36.0, QUAL: 32.0, No. 11 seed in Bracket Matrix

Past Four Games: W at Virginia Tech, W vs. Louisville, W at NC State, W vs. Syracuse

Much has been made about North Carolina’s lack of quality wins this season. Aside from a sweep of Virginia Tech (unlikely to make the tournament) and a home win over Michigan that keeps bouncing between Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2, there’s absolutely nothing good worth mentioning.

And yet, thanks to only one loss to a team not projected to dance—a really bad one at home against Pitt, but still, only one—the overall resume is in great shape.

Well, not great shape. But, as far as recent history is concerned, things are looking good for the Heels.

Syracuse had a nearly identical resume last year (NET: 40, RES: 43.0, QUAL: 36.0, 1-7 vs. Q1, one bad loss—at home against Pitt, interestingly enough) and was the top No. 11 seed. The best comparison from 2019 is probably VCU, which ended up in the Nos. 34-42 range in each of NET, RES and QUAL with one great win and three bad losses and still managed to get a No. 8 seed.

Of course, the journey isn’t finished for the Tar Heels. They still have a road game against Duke on Saturday, plus the ACC tournament.

If they beat the Blue Devils, go ahead and punch that ticket. But even with a loss, UNC is still assured a double bye in the ACC tournament as either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed—which likely comes with a quarterfinal pairing against either Wake Forest or Virginia Tech, either of which would be a Quadrant 1 game. Losing that one wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it would definitely make for some sleepless nights in Chapel Hill leading up to Selection Sunday.

Where things could get bad, though, is if Wake Forest or Virginia Tech loses its opener to a team like Louisville, Boston College or Pittsburgh, which would turn UNC’s opener into a must-win, Quadrant 3 affair. But, again, they could avoid any and all Championship Week drama by knocking off Duke on Saturday.