NCAA Tournament 2022: Ranking Top Seeds Most Likely to Fall in Sweet 16

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Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Upsets are an annual tradition in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Heading into the Sweet 16, six top-four seeds have already exited the field.

Who might be next?

Based on recent performances and the upcoming matchup, we’ve ranked the five top-seeded teams in most danger of a loss. The list is focused on higher-seeded teams in a given matchup with an emphasis on programs in a top-four spot.

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Craig Mitchelldyer/Associated Press

Seed: 1

Memphis’ physicality truly bothered Gonzaga, which trailed by 10 at halftime and needed a huge 20 minutes from All-American forward Drew Timme to reach the second weekend.

Arkansas has some glaring flaws, especially on offense. Only 32 teams in the entire country have managed a worse three-point percentage than the Razorbacks’ 30.5 clip. Nevertheless, they draw fouls, are aggressive on defense and can match Gonzaga’s pace.

That’s a decent foundation to an upset bid.

As long as Jaylin Williams doesn’t get in foul trouble—Arkansas probably doesn’t have an answer for Timme and Chet Holmgren without him—the Hogs should present a strong challenge for the Zags.

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Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Seed: 1

Providence is still here, folks.

Questioned all season because of its knack for tight finishes, the Friars have advanced to the Sweet 16 after toppling hot-shooting South Dakota State and Cinderella hopeful Richmond. They’ve quieted a ton of critics, including the one typing these words.

Kansas, on the other hand, narrowly escaped a second-round clash with Creighton, which was playing without star center Ryan Kalkbrenner and key guard Ryan Nembhard.

Providence isn’t perfect, but the Friars continually found ways to win during the regular season and have been in control for a strong majority of both of its NCAA tourney games so far.

Kansas may be destined for an uncomfortable game in Chicago.

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Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Seed: 1

That was rather distressing, wasn’t it?

Arizona, one of the most popular championship picks in the country, nearly didn’t escape TCU in the second round. Benn Mathurin hit a clutch three-pointer to force overtime, and the Wildcats ultimately pulled out a nerve-wracking 85-80 win.

Most notably, TCU secured 20 rebounds off its own misses—an awfully timely stat, considering what’s coming next.

Heading into Sunday’s action, the Horned Frogs ranked third nationally in offensive rebound rate. One spot behind them on the chart is Houston, which awaits Arizona in the Sweet 16 and just grabbed 15 offensive boards against Illinois on Sunday.

Although the ‘Cats certainly don’t want a repeat of their last matchup, it might be exactly what they get.

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Craig Mitchelldyer/Associated Press

Seed: 4

UCLA prefers slow tempo and mid-range jumpers. North Carolina wants to play fast and is comfortable launching threes.

It’s easy to project how this could go badly for the Bruins. Now, that’s not to suggest UCLA is destined to lose against the eighth-seeded Tar Heels.

During its recent 8-1 stretch, North Carolina has connected on a not-spectacular 32.5 percent of threes. However, the Tar Heels have knocked down 24 triples in two NCAA tournament games.

If UNC’s perimeter weapons—namely Caleb Love, Brady Manek and RJ Davis—are hitting shots, UCLA may struggle to keep up.

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Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Seed: 2

The easiest point of evidence is the betting line: Texas Tech opened as the favorite over Duke in this Sweet 16 showdown.

But they’re also two dramatically different teams.

Duke has an offense-driven, high-scoring identity led by star freshman Paolo Banchero, while Texas Tech has solidified itself as one of the nation’s top defenses. During the NCAA tournament alone, Duke has outscored its competition 163-137 compared to 156-115 for the third-seeded Red Raiders.

Between the contrast of styles and the simple fact Texas Tech is a very good team, Duke losing would not be unexpected.

          

Statistics courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.