NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament 2022: Updated Championship Odds, Picks

Jessica Hill/Associated Press

The 2022 NCAA women’s basketball tournament is down to 16 teams, and it’s shaping up to be an exciting finish to the event. While there have been some upsets, many of the country’s powerhouse programs are still involved, meaning they could soon be facing off as the stakes keep getting higher.

All four No. 1 seeds (South Carolina, Stanford, Louisville and NC State) have reached the Sweet 16. As did a pair of No. 2 seeds (UConn and Texas) and a trio of No. 3 seeds (Iowa State, Michigan and Indiana).

Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1994, a No. 1 seed has won the national title 21 times. And there’s a decent chance that could be the case again this year. But there are some other strong teams remaining in the bracket (most notably UConn) that may prevent that from happening.

Before the Sweet 16 action begins on Friday, here are the latest national championship odds, followed by predictions for how the rest of the tournament will unfold.

Odds to Win National Title

South Carolina: +115 (bet $100 to win $115)

UConn: +300

Stanford: +450

NC State: +600

Louisville: +1000

Texas: +2000

North Carolina: +5000

Iowa State: +5000

Maryland: +6000

Michigan: +6000

Tennessee: +8000

Indiana: +10000

Notre Dame: +20000

South Dakota: +20000

Ohio State: +30000

Creighton: +40000

Via DraftKings Sportsbook

Championship Predictions

Not every team that reached the Sweet 16 of the tournament was expected to be here. While the men’s event typically has larger upsets, this year’s women’s competition has had some surprise teams making their way through the first two rounds.

Creighton and South Dakota have made impressive runs to this point as No. 10 seeds, while No. 6 Ohio State took down No. 3 LSU in the second round. But it’s going to get tougher for these underdogs to make it much further in the tournament.

The top teams in this year’s bracket have made it clear they’re the best in the country. And it’s unlikely any school that isn’t a No. 1 or No. 2 seed makes it to the Final Four.

South Carolina (the No. 1 overall seed), Stanford (the defending national champions) and Louisville shouldn’t have any trouble making a run to the Final Four. Expect them to each record two more wins this weekend and make it to that point.

NC State, the No. 1 seed in the Bridgeport Region, faces a bigger test. That’s because it will likely run into No. 2 seed UConn in the Elite Eight, and that’s not going to be an easy matchup.

The Huskies took down No. 15 Mercer and No. 7 UCF over the first two rounds, and they’re now set to face No. 3 Indiana in the Sweet 16 on Saturday. If they win that game with ease, it’ll be even clearer why they’re the team with the second-best odds of winning the national title, even as a No. 2 seed.

UConn sophomore guard Paige Bueckers is one of the best players in the country, but she hasn’t put up huge numbers since returning from knee surgery. However, she played 32 minutes in the Huskies’ second-round win, her most since Dec. 5, her final game before suffering the injury.

Now that the 20-year-old is getting more time on the court, it wouldn’t be surprising if she starts to look more like the player who received AP Player of the Year honors as a freshman last season. And that will make UConn an even more dangerous team.

Even if Bueckers doesn’t quite reach that level, though, she’s still giving the Huskies a boost at the most important time of the season.

“Having her on the court, obviously, benefits us in so many ways,” UConn head coach Geno Auriemma said, per Paul Doyle of CT Insider. “And the fact that I had her on the floor for 32 minutes says something, you know?”

Although the Huskies may have to face No. 1 seeds in each of the final three rounds (if they keep advancing), they should be up to the challenge.

The prediction here is that Auriemma gets UConn playing its best basketball and leads the program to its first national championship since 2016, defeating South Carolina in the final.

Prediction: UConn beats South Carolina in national championship game.

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