Julio Cortez/Associated Press
Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The line feels way incredibly large in this game, given the makeup of the teams involved. the Philadelphia Eagles can grind out games with their rushing attack, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing without some of their top stars.
While it’s worth noting that the regular-season meeting with the Eagles was played in Philadelphia, the Bucs only won that game by six points. Tampa is also without receivers Chris Godwin (torn ACL) and Antonio Brown, who was released.
Running back Leonard Fournette was not activated from injured reserve either.
Tampa’s third-ranked run defense does match up well with Philadelphia’s run-heavy attack. However, the Buccaneers have been gashed on the ground at times—Buffalo, for example, rushed for 173 in Week 14.
Jalen Hurts is just as dangerous on the ground as Bills quarterback Josh Allen, and Philly may have more success running the ball than most might expect. It’s hard to envision Philadelphia pulling out the upset but it’s not impossible. An Eagles cover feels even more likely.
The Buccaneers have not been prone to blowout victories this season. See the first meeting between these two as an example.
San Francisco 49ers (+3) at Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys are not afraid of the San Francisco 49ers’ physical approach to running the football and playing tough defense.
“I’m from Harrisburg, where the bullies get bullied,” Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons said, per Michael Gehklen of the Dallas Morning News. “There’s a bully in every gym. … At one point, it’s going to take somebody to stand up and fight. I ain’t ever back down from a challenge.”
While Dallas may be ready for a physical fight, they shouldn’t take the 49ers lightly. San Francisco is capable of being physical and controlling this game.
Led by running back Elijah Mitchell and do-it-all playmaker Deebo Samuel, San Francisco can indeed bully Dallas’ turnover-dependent defense—Dallas went 1-3 in games when it didn’t force a turnover. The Cowboys also rank just 23rd in yards per rush allowed.
The key factor here will be limiting mistakes and getting a clean performance from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. There’s no guarantee that happens, but if San Francisco can establish the run early and control the tempo, we could see the first upset of Super Wild Card Weekend here.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+12.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Pittsburgh Steelers narrowly pushed into the playoffs—the Raiders sent them there with an overtime field goal in the regular-season finale—while the Kansas City Chiefs narrowly missed out on the No. 1 seed.
The Steelers can be formidable at times, but Kansas City was one of the league’s hottest teams down the stretch. A shootout loss to the Bengals was the Chiefs’ only blemish over their final 10 games.
The question in this game is whether Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense can generate enough to match points with Patrick Mahomes and Co. Pittsburgh’s 20th-ranked defense isn’t going to win on its own.
Roethlisberger even joked about Pittsburgh not being given a chance here.
“We don’t have a chance. So let’s just go in and have fun,” he told reporters.
Pittsburgh is in the dance, so of course it has a chance. However, this is arguably the mismatch of the weekend. The Steelers may cover, but an outright upset feels incredibly unlikely.
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