Andre Penner/Associated Press
Brazil has an opportunity to extend South America’s recent dominance in the Olympic men’s soccer tournament on Saturday morning.
Brazil is the reigning champion of the event, and it takes on Spain, who won Europe’s last gold medal in 1992.
Three of the last four Olympic men’s soccer tournaments have been won by Brazil or Argentina. Mexico broke up the South American run with a victory at the 2012 London Games.
The South American sides are more likely to win the Olympics tournament since some of the major European sides do not have their under-23 squads at full strength.
Spain’s squad was not weakened as much as France and Germany by the refusal of big clubs to release their players for the tournament.
Pedri has run the Spanish midfield, and Unai Simon has been the team’s starter in net. Dani Olmo, Pau Torres and Marco Asensio are among the notable names on the Spain roster.
Brazil is led by Richarlison and Dani Alves. Matheus Cunha and Antony are among the other notable players who are rostered by European clubs.
Brazil vs. Spain Info
Date: Saturday, August 7
Start Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
Live Stream: NBCOlympics.com and NBC Sports app
Odds
90-Minute Money Line: Brazil (+165; bet $100 to win $165); Spain (+210); Draw (+195)
Over/Under: 2.5 (+170)
Prediction
Brazil 2, Spain 0
Brazil is known for its creativity in the final third, but its defense was just as important to advance it to the final.
The reigning champion held a clean sheet in the quarterfinal round versus Egypt and did not allow Mexico to score over 120 minutes in the semifinals.
In those two matches, the Selecao earned an 11-6 advantage in shots on target. Antony, Paulinho and Matheus Cunha were responsible for six of the 11 attempts on frame.
Brazil may have a tough time breaking through Spain’s steady passing motion early on in the contest, but it will not sit back for 90 minutes to let the European side dictate the tempo.
In Richarlison, Matheus Cunha and whomever else lines up in attack, Brazil has a unit that can hit Spain quick in transition to open up man advantages in and around the penalty area.
Spain has three clean sheets in five games, but two of those came at the start of the competition. It conceded twice to Ivory Coast in the quarterfinals and once to Argentina in the last group-stage contest.
Spain also has some tired legs in its squad since Pedri played at UEFA Euro 2020 and then came straight to Tokyo.
If Brazil tries to wear down Pedri, it will take away some of the strengths of the Spanish midfield, which could then lead to a disjointed midfield approach from Spain.
If Brazil picks up a lead of any kind, it may not relinquish it because of how well its defense has played in Japan.
The South American side earned three clean sheets and has not allowed multiple goals since the opening group-stage match versus Germany.
If Dani Alves, Diego Carlos and the rest of the Brazilian back line deal well with the Spanish attack threat, the number of chances created against goalkeeper Santos should be limited.
It may take a while for Brazil to get the breakthrough, but it is in a much better position to do so and then hold on to the win based off what we have seen so far at the Olympics.
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