Overmatched Red Sox Get Reality Check from Buzzsaw Rays in ALDS Game 1

AP Photo/Chris O’Meara

The Boston Red Sox lived a charmed life in the American League Wild Card Game, beating the New York Yankees in a 6-2 contest in which the good bounces were plentiful and the scares were scarce.

Then the Tampa Bay Rays took all the charm for themselves in Game 1 of the American League Division Series.

The final from Tropicana Field on Thursday was 5-0 in favor of the Rays, but this is a case of a score that undersells how one-sided the game actually was. According to FanGraphs, the only time that the win expectancy chart was in the Red Sox’s favor was when Kyle Schwarber’s infield single in the first inning gave them a 50.3 percent chance of winning.

After that, the Rays took over pretty much by doing what they did during their first ever 100-win regular season. They didn’t give the Red Sox a single inch while helping themselves to as many as they wanted, including the 1,080 that Randy Arozarena traversed on his electrifying steal of home plate in the seventh inning:

Oh, and Arozarena also homered. Because in case anyone missed what he did last year, that’s yet another service that he offers in October.

The Rays’ ultimate reward? A 1-0 series lead that somehow feels more like a 100-0 advantage.

Rays Players of the Game

• LHP Shane McClanahan: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 3 K. The hard-throwing left-hander’s first career postseason start ended with him becoming the youngest pitcher since Christy Mathewson with an October debut of at least five scoreless, walk-less innings.
• LF Randy Arozarena: 1-for-2, 2 BB, 3 R, 1 RBI, 1 HR, 1 SB. His home run heroics in the playoffs already had him rubbing elbows with some all-time greats, so him channeling Jackie Robinson was just as much him showing off as it was him padding his team’s lead.
• SS Wander Franco and DH Nelson Cruz: They had three hits and two runs batted in between them, with Franco’s RBI coming on a first-inning double and Cruz’s coming on a catwalk-aided solo homer in the third.

Red Sox Players of the Game

• RHP Nick Pivetta: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 R, 4 K. The 2-0 hole that the Red Sox fell into with lefty starter Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound only got steeper on Pivetta’s watch, but the innings that he ate could loom large in Game 2 on Friday.
• DH Kyle Schwarber: 2-for-4. Between his two singles and three hard-hit balls, he was the closest thing the Red Sox had to a hitting star on Thursday. 

An Unstoppable Force Meets a Movable Object

Though the Red Sox lost the season series to the Rays 11 games to 8, they only got outscored by two runs in the process. If one was so inclined, one could look at that and conclude that Boston gave the American League’s winning-est team a hard time.

In actuality, not really. The Red Sox didn’t win another series against the Rays after sweeping a three-game set at Fenway Park in April, and the final run differential between the two clubs was more than a little skewed by Boston’s 20-8 drubbing on Aug. 11.

Coming into the proceedings, it was therefore hard to look at this particular ALDS matchup and see avenues through which the Red Sox would be able to grab easy wins. Surely, their wins would have to come by way of flawless execution and maybe a few lucky bounces.

They got neither in Game 1.

Naturally, the Red Sox mostly have themselves to blame for their flawed execution. A bobble by center fielder Enrique Hernandez opened the door for Arozarena to score on Franco’s first-inning double. And while Arozarena certainly showed off his speed when he stole home, even Boston manager Alex Cora had to hand it to him for catching lefty fireman Josh Taylor napping:

Equally frustrating, however, was how many of Boston’s hardest-hit balls went for naught. The team hit into nine outs on batted balls of at least 95 mph, which is territory that few other teams have been unlucky enough to find in October during the seven-year Statcast era.

Mind you, it wasn’t all bad luck that turned those rockets into outs. It’s a wonder that the Red Sox managed to hit anything through the Rays defense, as their defensive shifts seemed guided not so much by projections as actual crystal-ball predictions.

Of course, that’s the Rays for ya. Defense was one of their main calling cards during the regular season, wherein they paced the American League in defensive runs saved and trailed only the Houston Astros in allowing a .281 average on balls in play.

In addition to their gloves, Game 1 was likewise a showcase for Tampa Bay’s arms. McClanahan and the three relievers who followed him didn’t throw a single fastball slower than 91 mph, thereby keeping the Rays on the velocity-paved path that guided them to a stellar 47-25 sprint to the finish in the second half.

The Rays had an elite offense in place even before they truly took after the break, as they actually outscored everyone from the day that Franco debuted on June 22 through the end of the season. Perhaps they never took on a Toronto Blue Jays-level fear factor, but they’re probably your favorite pitcher’s least favorite offense to face.

Or definitely, if your favorite pitcher is Marcus Stroman:

Sale’s initially triumphant return from Tommy John surgery hit a snag in the final weeks of the regular season, where he was hit at a .292 clip over his last five starts. Though inexperienced, Baz is an elite prospect with stuff that’s perfectly worthy of the Rays.

The Red Sox could get a big boost is slugger J.D. Martinez’s sprained left ankle allows him to play on Friday. Cora reportedly said there’s a strong possibility of that happening, which will do for a much-needed silver lining for Boston while it licks its wounds after Game 1.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.